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Young voters likely to break 2008 US election record, play key role in swing states

Over 5 million eligible US voters under 30 years of age have cast their ballot, surpassing the 2016 early voting numbers in key swing states such as Florida and North Carolina.

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New Delhi: There are barely four days to go for the US presidential election but over five million (50 lakh) young voters (aged 18 to 29 years) have already cast their ballots, including nearly three million (30 lakh) in 14 key American states that are likely to decide the presidency.

This was revealed in data released by the Centre for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) earlier this week.

It has also been predicted that voters under 30 could break their historic 2008 record of 48.4 per cent, when Barack Obama was elected as the president.

States with the highest percentage of young voters who could make an appreciable difference are Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona, according to CIRCLE data.

Early voting among young voters has also surged passed 2016 numbers in key swing states that are critical for US President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden. These include Florida, North Carolina, Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

In Florida, for example, 257,720 young voters have already cast their votes as of last Wednesday, which is about 214,000 more than at a similar point in 2016 when Trump was elected as the president.

Another poll conducted by the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School recently found that 63 per cent young voters said they will “definitely be voting” this year. In 2016, just 47 per cent had said they would.


Also read: Trump vs Biden — Who is winning the social media war ahead of US presidential election


Usually 50% of young voters end up voting

There were 166 million (16.6 crore) young Americans as of July 2019, which is 50.7 per cent of the total US population. In 2016, young voters made up just 15.7 per cent of the total electorate. They comprised 15.4 per cent in 2012, 17.1 per cent in 2008 and 16 per cent in 2004.

In the 2018 midterm US elections, young women had a higher voter turnout than young men and were more likely to vote for Democratic candidates.

Despite the encouraging trend this year, turnout of young voters in each presidential election has been below 50 per cent.

Years when young voter turnout had peaked in the past are 1972 (55.4 per cent), when the US had lowered voting age from 21 to 18 years; and in 2008, (48.4 per cent) when Obama was elected.

In the last presidential election, however, fewer than half of young voters who were eligible actually cast their ballot.

Elizabeth Matto, associate research professor at the Center for Youth Political Participation in Rutgers University, said at a press briefing Monday, “It’s worth mentioning that older Americans — baby boomers, silent generation — usually those turnout rates are 60 per cent or 70 per cent. So, it’s a good 20 percentage points higher than young adults.”

This is because young voters are usually unfamiliar with voting practices, especially mail-in voting and haven’t received the same civic education that previous generations did, explained Matto.

“The other real challenge is college students…[are now] learning remotely…So, that means that we [colleges] can’t reach out to them directly. We can’t have voter registration drives on campus,” she added.

A voting bloc for Democrats

Twenty years ago, the number of young voters supporting Republicans or Democrats was fairly equal. However, in the last three elections — 2004, 2006, and 2008 — they had favoured the Democratic candidate overwhelmingly.

In 2016, young voters supported Hillary Clinton over Trump (55 per cent vs 37 per cent). While 13 million had voted for the former and nine million for the latter, about two million young people voted for third-party candidates.

That said, there was a drop in youth support between 2012 and 2016 for the Democratic candidate. Obama secured 60 per cent of the youth vote in 2012, while Clinton secured 55 per cent in 2016.

But it may change this year. A recent Harvard Youth Poll found that Biden’s favourability among likely young voters had jumped from 34 per cent to 56 per cent since March.


Also read: Affluent voters, presence in swing states — why Indian-Americans matter to both Trump & Biden


 

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