New Delhi: Ukraine has already “won” the opening phases of the war against Russia after “enduring” for almost two years, disrupting Moscow’s plan for a quick victory, Oleksandr Polishchuk, the Ukrainian ambassador to India, told ThePrint in an exclusive interview earlier this month.
“The Russian blitzkrieg plan in Ukraine failed. Today, the war has the character of a protracted armed conflict. To achieve quick victory is quite problematic. But Ukraine has already won after having endured almost two years in the fight against a mammoth nuclear state,” said Polishchuk in a written communication with ThePrint.
The ambassador asserted that Russia’s aim is the “complete destruction of statehood and the colonisation of Ukraine” and the “extermination” of Ukrainians as a nation.
His comments come as the war in Ukraine completes 22 months in December, with neither side able to make significant gains on the ground.
On 24 February 2022, at 5 am (Ukrainian time), Russia unleashed a massive land and air assault on Ukraine from multiple borders, including through Belarus, according to reports from Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin described the attack as a “special military operation” aimed at demilitarising Ukraine and defending Russia from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
“The purpose of this [military intervention in Ukraine] operation is to protect people who for eight years now have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime. To this end we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine,” Putin said in his statement on 24 February as translated and published by the Russian mission in Geneva on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
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🇷🇺 President Vladimir #Putin’s video address on February 24 in 🇬🇧English
♦️The decision to carry out an operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine threatening the people of Donbass and Russian citizens pic.twitter.com/PovDIz5VtF
— Russian Mission in Geneva (@mission_russian) February 24, 2022
Putin invoked World War 2 and denaziifying the country to justify Russia’s aggression against Ukraine — whose President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish.
“There were no threats of the use of force against Russia by Ukraine or NATO member states — both on the eve of the invasion and long before. Therefore, there is nothing that could support the legal justification of Russia’s military attack on Ukraine,” Polishchuk said.
He added that Ukraine had been facing Russian hostility since 2014 in a hybrid format. “In February 2022, Russia moved to an open military intervention against Ukraine.”
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War of attrition
Polishchuk said that after Russia’s original strategy of a “blitzkrieg” failed, Moscow is now focusing on a war of attrition and “resource depletion.”
He asserted that this strategy would also backfire, given the huge costs incurred by the Russian government during the war.
“Putin’s current strategy is to win the long war of resource depletion. By the way, there is nothing new in Russian military strategy since the Napoleonic Wars. He believes that [Ukraine’s] Western partners will gradually become fatigued, lose their interest in Ukraine, and will stop providing military and technical assistance,” said the ambassador.
“However, as always, Putin overestimates his capabilities and underestimates the potential of the opposing side when developing a strategy for both quick and protracted war,” he added.
Polishchuk said that Russia’s daily direct expenses for the war against Ukraine are about $300 million. “According to official data, in the first half of 2023 alone, Russia spent on defence 12 percent more than the $54 billion it originally planned for 2023.”
He contended that this added military burden was reminiscent of the arms race between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the US during the Cold War, which resulted in the collapse of the USSR – the “greatest geopolitical disaster” of the 20th century according to Putin.
“One of the reasons for the collapse of the USSR, which Putin is so nostalgic about, is excessive spending on the arms race in competition with the US, which finally exhausted the country’s resources,” said the ambassador.
The other effect of the war on Russia, he said, is a large number of Russian casualties — roughly 0.5 percent of its total male population, or between 2,90,000 and 3,50,000 casualties since February 2022.
According to media reports, the Russian defence ministry reported a total of 5,937 casualties between February and September 2022. No further data has been revealed since.
NATO, EU membership ‘existential’ choices for Ukraine
Polishchuk argued that there were no threats to Russia from NATO and that Finland and Sweden — two countries that enjoyed neutrality for years — had no inclinations to join NATO before the war, but after Russian aggression fast tracked-their applications to enter the alliance. “Although before the war, these countries enjoyed their neutrality and even never seriously discussed NATO membership.”
He said it was important to address Putin’s great concern about NATO expansion. “It is crystal clear that in the architecture of modern European security, NATO remains the only effective guarantor of military security, taking into account current and prospective threats,” Polischuk added.
For Ukraine, European Union (EU) and NATO memberships are the only “existential” choices to ensure its national security — the other option is Ukraine returning to the club of nuclear-armed nations.
“The experience of our Baltic friends, who also have historical trauma from the Soviet era, clearly demonstrates that membership in the EU and NATO is the only strategic path or even an existential choice to ensure Ukraine’s national security,” the ambassador said.
According to him, EU membership will be a guarantee of economic security and stable development of the country, and membership in NATO should become a long-term guarantee from any armed aggression against Ukraine.
“Otherwise, Ukraine would have to return to the club of nuclear states to protect its statehood and sovereignty. Like India, Ukraine must balance its own military potential with a potentially dangerous neighbour,” he added.
On 14 December, the EU agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova despite internal opposition from Hungary and its prime minister, Viktor Orbán.
Any decision on enlargement of the EU requires unanimous agreement among its leaders in the European Council. To ensure accession talks with Ukraine would be agreed upon unanimously by the European Council, Orbán stepped out of the discussion room during the vote — highlighting the complexities that the Zelenskyy administration faces in achieving its goal of joining the EU, according to media reports.
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War costs for Ukraine
The ambassador highlighted that the economic situation within Ukraine is “difficult” as a result of the war. Ukraine received about $37.4 billion in external financing between January and November 2023, according to a statement made by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on 5 December.
According to Polishchuk, since the beginning of the war, Washington D.C. has directed over $75 billion to Ukraine.
However, the US Congress has been unable to agree to new funding for Kyiv, due to its domestic debate on linking any further aid to Ukraine to domestic border security funding within the US.
The Biden administration has reportedly been unable to find a breakthrough with Congress during talks between the Republicans and Democrats this month — pushing negotiations to 2024.
“Today, there are certain difficulties in the US with making decisions regarding the amount of military aid for Ukraine. But in my opinion, they are purely technical,” said Polischuk.
He clarified that no financial aid from external partners is used for defence purposes, saying, “If we are talking about the amount of international military and technical assistance to Ukraine, it should be noted that we do not receive direct financial income from partners and allies. Ukraine receives military equipment and machinery.”
The EU, meanwhile, is facing its own internal divisions on continuing aid to Ukraine. According to media reports, Orbán blocked an agreement for $50 billion in funding to Ukraine, also pushing EU negotiations to next year.
To bridge this gap in funding, the US and its G7 partners are looking at legal methods to use nearly $300 billion worth of frozen Russian assets in Western financial institutions to support Ukraine, according to The New York Times (NYT).
Such a decision would be illegal without the support of the US Congress, according to Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, as reported by the NYT.
“Ukraine expects that the main source of covering costs for post-war reconstruction will be frozen Russian assets accumulated abroad. Most of these frozen assets are located in the G7 countries — approximately $280 billion,” Polishchuk said.
“The G7 countries also stated that they will study all possible ways of providing assistance to Ukraine in accordance with legal systems and international law, including using frozen sovereign assets of Russia,” he added.
However, despite the complexities Kyiv faces, the ambassador is confident that Moscow will lose the war in the long term.
“In the medium or long term, Russia will definitely lose. What this loss will be and on what scale depends on its leadership. The sooner Russia realises this, the smaller its losses will be,” he said.
(Edited by Richa Mishra)
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