New Delhi: The disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has ceased to exist with Azerbaijan successfully reclaiming the breakaway region in a swift military operation conducted on 19 September, forcing thousands of Armenians to flee.
The government of Armenia has reported that 65,036 people of the 1,20,000 in Nagorno-Karabakh have fled the region for Armenia, a country with a population of roughly 2.8 million people.
The fleeing of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia is one of the largest movements of people in the region since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The Nagorno-Karabakh ethnic Armenians also announced the dissolution of the breakaway administration, that called itself the Republic of Artsakh, by 1 January 2024. The Republic of Artsakh has governed the region since 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The self-declared republic was recognised by no international country, including Armenia.
The mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh is roughly 4,400 sq km in size. Though officially a part of Azerbaijan, the territory was historically populated by ethnic Armenians. It has seen two wars between the two countries in the last three decades.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev claimed victory in Nagorno-Karabakh in an address to the nation on 20 September. “As a result of the initiation and successful completion of anti-terrorist measures, Azerbaijan regained its [Nagorno-Karabakh] sovereignty at around 1 pm yesterday,” Aliyev said in his address.
“A large part of the army of the Armenian state, which was illegally stationed on the territory of Azerbaijan and has not been withdrawn to this day despite the obligation by the Armenian state, has been completely destroyed,” Aliyev added.
For Aliyev and Azerbaijan, the dissolution of the breakaway administration is a success in reclamation of its sovereignty. Whereas for Armenia and the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, the dissolution of the breakaway state is a tragedy that is unfolding into a humanitarian crisis.
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Lingering Soviet role in Nagorno-Karabakh
The history of Nagorno-Karabakh is complex and plays a huge role in the current geopolitical context. As the Soviet Union had set its sights on the independent states of the Caucasus regions and began incorporating them into the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the question arose of the decision on the administration of this region.
Originally, it was decided that the Karabakh region would be incorporated into the Armenian Soviet Social Republic (Armenian S.S.R), but Joseph Stalin, the then Commissar of Nationalities, reversed the decision, as reported by National Geographic magazine. In 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh region was recognised as an autonomous administrative region within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (Azerbaijan S.S.R).
While there were complaints by ethnic Armenians in the region against Azeri discrimination, this was ignored by the Soviet administration due to its policy of intolerance towards ethnonationalism as reported by National Geographic.
As the Soviet Union disintegrated in the 1980s, the people from Karabakh petitioned to join Armenia, but were crushed by the Azeri administration. The regional conflict became a full-blown war in 1991, after both Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence from the Soviet Union.
Over 30,000 people perished in the conflict and hundreds of thousands of Azeris became refugees, according to the BBC. In 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed the Bishkek protocol, agreeing to a ceasefire mediated by Russia but left the region in Azerbaijan.
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Post 2020 scenario
In September 2020, the second Nagorno-Karabakh war began between Azerbaijan and Armenia. More than 6,000 people were killed as per media reports, and hundreds of Armenian and Azeri soldiers injured.
Azerbaijan reclaimed most of the territory lost during the first war and was greatly aided by drones sold by Turkey, as reported by ThePrint. Armenia recognised the region as a part of Azerbaijan, while Russia sent 2,000 peacekeepers to maintain peace in the region.
In December 2022, as per media reports, local Azeri population blockaded the Lachin corridor, a small strip of land that connected the region with Armenia. The protestors blocked all access to the region, leading to residents of Nagorno-Karabakh facing critical shortages of essential goods.
The US, the European Union (EU) and Russia all hosted peace talks in May 2023 to resolve the situation, according to a brief by the Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based think tank. But these talks did not resolve the situation, with Azerbaijan further restricting access to the region, leading to the death of two children, according to media reports. The situation remained tense till Azerbaijan reclaiming control over the region on 19 September.
Geopolitical jockeying
Geopolitical jockeying for influence within the region has led to multiple nations vying to support either side.
As reported by ThePrint, Armenia has become a key partner supporting New Delhi on the issue of Kashmir as well as purchasing weapons from India. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has earned support from Turkey and Pakistan, with regards to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
India and Iran have traditionally supported Armenia in the conflict. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a mutual defence agreement with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Having the second largest Armenian diaspora in the world, the US has also stepped into the conflict. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke with President Aliyev on 26 September called for Azerbaijan to refrain from further aggressive action in the region and provide humanitarian access to Nagorno-Karabakh, as per a readout from the US Department of State.
Former US Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi led a Congressional delegation to Armenia to show Washington’s support in September 2022. Armenia has had a public row with Russia, despite being its ally. Moscow warned Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who is facing calls to resign, to stop flirting with the West, according to Reuters.
Protests have erupted across Armenia over the capitulation of the Armenian government of Nagorno-Karabakh, with protestors calling for the government to intervene or resign, said media reports.
In the midst of this global jockeying, Azerbaijan has declared its victory, while ethnic Armenians continue to flee across the border to Yerevan. Long cues of vehicles have been seen travelling towards Armenia, fearing persecution if they remained in the region.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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