New Delhi: In a grand de-escalation of objectives, Sergei Rudskoi, the head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate, declared that the “liberation” of Donbas would be Russia’s priority in Ukraine — a big comedown from wanting to “demilitarise” the country and topple its government.
These diminished ambitions can be seen in Russia’s reworked deployment in Ukraine. The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) tweeted that, prioritising the eastern axis of invasion, Russian forces were reorganising and redeploying in the Donbas region to accelerate their offensive. Troops, including mercenaries from the Wagner group, have reportedly been deployed there.
As ThePrint reported earlier,Russia has had five main axes of attack into Ukraine — the capital, Kyiv; Chernihiv and Sumy in the north; Kharkiv in the north-east; Donetsk and Luhansk in the east; and Kherson in the south. Large parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, which together make up the Donbas region, are controlled by Russian-backed separatists.
According to a Washington D.C. based think-tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as of Sunday, Russia had considerably thinned down troops around the Kyiv axis, which was formerly the invasion’s primary focus. Reports also suggest that Russia is withdrawing forces from the northern axis of Chernihiv.
However, the war continues, and heavy fighting continues on the other axes of invasion.
Kyiv axis (capital)
On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that Russia’s withdrawal from the north of the country, including from around Kyiv, was “slow but noticeable”.
As of Sunday, the ISW reported that Russian troops had withdrawn in significant numbers from Kyiv and its surrounding areas. The troops were supported by artillery to provide cover in case they were attacked by the Ukrainians while retreating.
However, the ISW suggests that any assessment of the number of Russian troops left behind in Kyiv is impossible due to the haphazard and disorganised nature of the withdrawal.
This contrasts with a statement by Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Ganna Maliar, who declared Saturday that the whole of Kyiv had been liberated.
Following the Russian withdrawal, it was reported that nearly 20 dead bodies of civilians had been found scattered across the town of Bucha near Kyiv, which has led to Russia being accused of war crimes.
Michael Kofman, director of the Russia studies programme at CNA, a US-based nonprofit research and analysis organisation, assesses that the troops withdrawn from the Kyiv axis will be redeployed by rail to Donbas, or to the Kharkiv axis.
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Chernihiv axis (north)
The governor of Chernihiv, Viacheslav Chaus, announced Friday that Russian forces were withdrawing from the region but had not completely left.
The latest reports suggested that the Russian withdrawal from Chernihiv was continuing Sunday.
Kharkiv & Sumy axis (northeast)
On Saturday, Russia continued shelling in the Kharkiv region; however, the Ukrainian military said that the intensity had decreased.
The Ukraine military also declared that they had inflicted heavy damage on Russian troops deployed in Kharkiv. The Ukrainians claim to have caused Russia’s 59th Tank Regiment, posted in Kharkiv, to suffer losses amounting to nearly 80 per cent of its forces.
The ISW assesses that the units posted in Kharkiv and Sumy are being used to provide cover to the troops withdrawing from Kyiv.
It also predicts that all troops west of Kharkiv and Sumy will retreat once the withdrawals from Kyiv and Brovary — approximately 30 kilometres from the capital — are completed.
Donetsk & Luhansk axis (Donbas region in the east)
Most assessments of Moscow’s future strategy assert that its troops will retreat from positions in the north and northeast, and focus on the Donbas region in the east.
Supporting these assessments, social media reports suggest that heavy fighting has continued in the Donbas region. As of Sunday, the Russians had attacked multiple locations across Donetsk and Luhansk but made limited gains according to the ISW.
Ukrainian media outlet The Kyiv Independent has reported that the governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, has recommended that citizens leave the region amid the threat of “military escalation”.
The UK’s MoD declared that heavy fighting continued in Mariupol Sunday, as Russian forces prioritised taking over the city through severe and relentless shelling. However, the Ukrainians were still putting up a stoic defence, it said.
The ISW estimates that Russia will take over Mariupol in the next few days, allowing it to launch a more concerted attack further east on both Donetsk and Luhansk.
Kherson axis (south)
Russia has continued limited offensive operations in the southern province of Kherson, according to reports. It’s trying to recapture the city of Oleksandrivka in northern Kherson, which the Ukrainians had taken back in March.
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