New Zealand’s election remains too close to call, but voters have already delivered a decisive verdict on the major parties, handing smaller rivals their best-ever results and reshaping the country’s political landscape.
The Electoral Commission projects the right-leaning bloc — made up of the center-right National Party, libertarian ACT party and nationalist New Zealand First — will secure 67 seats in an expanded 131-seat parliament. The final balance may still shift as special votes are counted.
The unclear result — which won’t be finalized for weeks — has confounded politicians, experts and pundits alike.
“I’ve been talking to other academics in the field, commentators, former politicians, current politicians and everyone is confused, because no one’s won at this point,” said Lara Greaves, associate professor in politics at Victoria University of Wellington.
“It definitely looks like it’s leaning right,” she said, adding there would be “a lot of questions around legitimacy and mandate as well.”
Ben Thomas, a former National government press secretary who now works as a political commentator and public relations consultant, described it as “one of the strangest election results in our history.”
With all regular votes counted, National and the center-left Labour Party each captured just over 29% of the vote. That’s a steep decline for National, which got 38% of the final vote in 2023, and a modest uptick for Labour, which got just under 27% of votes.
Those projections show the center-left — consisting of the Labour Party, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori —holding 57 seats but that could grow to 64 if the centrist Opportunity Party, which is set to enter parliament for the first time with seven seats, chose to join the bloc.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has said she would talk about collaboration with the largest party in parliament first. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity before the election, appeared more open to that prospect on Sunday.
“As we currently stand today, we don’t need Opportunity to form a government,” he told reporters. “Regardless of what numbers are when the special votes come in, I do think it’s entirely appropriate to build a relationship with Qiulae and with Opportunity.”
Among the minor parties, the Green Party posted its best ever election result, while ACT and New Zealand First both received higher percentages of the vote than in the last election.
The result reflects a splintering of voters witnessed in other elections globally, where voters disenchanted with major parties amid a cost of living crisis and instability seek alternatives. In Australia, the far-right One Nation party, led by Pauline Hanson, has surged to about 30% in opinion polls, eclipsing the major parties, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is averaging roughly 22% in British polling.
New Zealand’s mixed-member-proportional (MMP) voting system, introduced in 1996, provides a channel for people who are dissatisfied with the major parties to vote for minor parties without the concern that it will be wasted. Less than 1% of votes went to parties that won’t be in parliament compared to almost 5% in 2023.
The final split of votes will not be known until Nov. 27, when the results of the crucial final special ballots will be announced, allowing party negotiations regarding coalitions to begin in earnest.
Special votes are those cast by people overseas or otherwise outside their home electorate during the polling period, and there are nearly 400,000 of them to tally, according to the Electoral Commission.
Political Possibilities
David Farrar, a political commentator and founder of Wellington-based polling firm Curia Market Research, said it’s “very unlikely” Labour can take power.
“Mathematically it’s possible Labour could form a government, but it would require a lot to fall their way,” he said.
He said it was more likely that National and its allies retain a majority, or there was a hung parliament.
“In that situation, Opportunity couldn’t put Labour into government, but National would have to do a deal with them to break the deadlock,” he said. National may decide to reach out to Opportunity even if it retains a majority “on the basis that the public would want them to see whether they can find some common ground,” Farrar added.
New Zealand’s parliament usually has 120 lawmakers, but this election is complicated by a predicted “overhang” that, on current projections, would swell their number to 131.
An overhang is a quirk of the nation’s mixed-member proportional voting system. Each voter has two votes — one for a local electorate candidate and another for a party. An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than the number it would otherwise be entitled to based on its share of the party vote.
Both National and Te Pāti Māori have produced overhangs by winning more electorates than their share of the party vote would otherwise entitle them to.
Disclaimer: This report is auto generated from the Bloomberg news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.