New Delhi: Donald Trump is now a lame duck. He has lost power in the Congress. The blue sweep of Democrats in the US midterm elections has clipped the 80-year-old president’s ability to advance his domestic agenda while raising questions about how he will use the powers he retains for the remainder of his four-year term.
Unlike a first-term president, Trump cannot seek re-election. With no further campaign to fight, and his party now weakened, he has officially entered what is commonly known as a lame-duck period: A stretch in which a president’s political influence is diminished, even as the formal powers of the office remain intact.
With Democrats set to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in January, the shift could have consequences well beyond Washington.
Trump will face a Congress capable of blocking legislation, investigating his administration and scrutinising the decisions behind his policies. But the presidency retains considerable authority over foreign affairs, particularly the use of military force. That imbalance could make the next two years unpredictable.
Trump struck a surprisingly conciliatory tone after the Democrat victories, congratulating the party and saying he was prepared to work with its leaders. How long that willingness will last is uncertain. He has also reminded Democrats that he retains the power to veto legislation, even posting an image of a red baseball cap bearing the word “VETO”.
But there is no denying that Republican influence is on a downslide. Kansas elected a Democratic senator for the first time since 1932, while Texas elected one for the first time since 1988. South Carolina’s Darline Graham failed to retain the seat held by her late brother, Republican powerbroker Lindsey Graham. Iowa, long regarded as a Republican stronghold, also elected a Democratic senator.
Trump has experienced a lame duck period before, between November 2020 and January 2021, after losing the presidential election to Joe Biden.
Rather than oversee a conventional transfer of power, he sought to overturn the result despite clear evidence of Biden’s victory. He is the first US president in a century to serve two non-consecutive terms, making him the only president in living memory to face a second lame-duck period—one that could last more than two years.
Trump’s second lame-duck period
A lame-duck president is generally one who no longer has to contend with another election. The expression has an older history. It was first used in the 18th century to describe a stockbroker unable to meet his debts, before entering the American political lexicon in the 19th century to describe defeated or politically weakened officeholders.
In the United States, the period between an election and the inauguration of newly-elected officials came to be known as the lame-duck period. The Twentieth Amendment, ratified in 1933, shortened that transition by moving the start of a new Congress to January 3 and the presidential inauguration to January 20.
Second-term presidents, however, are not necessarily powerless. Freed from the need to campaign, they can sometimes take politically difficult decisions or pursue diplomatic initiatives that might have been harder to attempt earlier. The absence of electoral pressure can make them more willing to take risks abroad, even as their domestic political capital declines.
There is precedent. At the end of his presidency, Bill Clinton made an intensive effort to secure an Israeli-Palestinian settlement and explored a presidential visit to North Korea.
After Democrats won the 2014 midterm elections, Barack Obama concluded the Iran nuclear agreement and moved to normalise relations with Cuba. George H. W. Bush sent US forces to Somalia in late 1992 on a limited mission to help ease famine. In 2007, after a punishing midterm defeat, George W. Bush ordered a troop surge in Iraq in an attempt to stabilise the country.
The outcomes were mixed. Clinton’s peace efforts failed, and Obama’s diplomatic achievements proved short-lived. The Somalia intervention helped avert hunger but left the underlying conflict unresolved; a subsequent expansion of the mission under Clinton had disastrous consequences. Bush’s Iraq surge reduced violence in the short term but did little to secure lasting stability.
Those initiatives, however, were debated with government officials and outside experts, and their objectives were clearly articulated, even when they were not achieved. Trump, by contrast, has often failed to explain or justify his foreign policy decisions.
The risks beyond Congress
With Democrats preparing to investigate his administration and his family’s business dealings, Trump could become more combative, according to reports. Congress may be able to summon officials, demand documents and hold hearings, but it has fewer tools to control the President’s day-to-day conduct of foreign policy.
There are several ways Trump could retaliate or seek to reassert his authority: Issuing fresh threats against Canada, undermining US alliances or reaching an understanding with Russia or China at the expense of Ukraine or Taiwan. Of course, turning such threats into policy would require more sustained diplomatic or military effort, including troop movements and negotiations with other powers.
The more immediate concerns are Iran and Cuba. According to The New York Times, the Trump administration and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms. A further attempt to force Tehran into submission is unlikely to succeed, the report argues, and could threaten the global economy as well as the security of US allies in the Persian Gulf.
The war with Iran has already become a central issue in the midterm campaign. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to rising prices, angering voters who had heard Trump promise during the 2024 presidential campaign that he would not start new wars.
Democrats have repeatedly argued that Trump had no authority to launch the war without congressional approval. They have invoked the War Powers Resolution in attempts to force the administration to seek authorisation or end US military involvement. With control of Congress, they will be able to call administration officials to testify under oath and investigate how the war was planned and conducted.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth is likely to face questions about the cost of the conflict, the intelligence used to justify the decision to attack Iran and the number of missile interceptors remaining in the US arsenal. Lawmakers may also examine how Washington intends to protect its Gulf allies and the role Israel played in persuading Trump to launch the war.
Trump could nevertheless decide to escalate. He appears to believe that intensifying the conflict might break the stalemate and improve his legacy. But Iranian leaders are unlikely to retreat under greater military pressure. They could instead intensify attacks on commercial shipping and Gulf allies, while refusing diplomatic overtures until Trump leaves office, a Foreign Policy article argues.
Trump has suggested that he still wants a negotiated end to the conflict. In an interview with Fox News Tuesday after the election, he said he was seeking a deal, but added: “Otherwise I’ll just finish the job.”
Cuba presents another possible target. The administration has imposed a sweeping embargo on the island for much of 2026, seeking to weaken its government. Cut off from Venezuelan support and facing electricity shortages that leave residents with power for only a few hours a day, Cuba has experienced worsening economic hardship and human suffering.
Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio has made removing the Cuban government a personal priority. Such a move would also fit with Trump’s so-called “Donroe Doctrine”, an assertion of US primacy in the western hemisphere.
A president with other priorities
Foreign policy is not the only arena in which Trump can still exercise power. He has repeatedly threatened to use executive orders to advance his hardline immigration agenda, as he did during the first months of his second term. He can also veto legislation passed by a Democrat-controlled Congress and challenge investigations into his administration.
There is also the possibility that Trump will turn his attention away from foreign policy and towards his own financial interests. His family has already benefited from business arrangements involving foreign entities, including a jetliner gifted by Qatar’s emir, a $2 billion investment from a fund led by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and profits from cryptocurrency ventures that have attracted foreign buyers. The New Yorker has estimated that the Trump family has made $4 billion through such activities.
Or Trump might not make any foreign policy decisions and focus on his beautification dreams.
He has shown considerable interest in reshaping Washington, DC, as a monument to his presidency. His plans include redecorating the Oval Office, building a $400 million ballroom in the White House, renovating the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and remodelling the Kennedy Centre. The ballroom is expected to be completed in late 2028, shortly before he leaves office.
In his closing speech before the midterm elections, Trump spent little time discussing policy and instead spoke about his plans to beautify the Capital. He could spend much of his remaining time issuing pardons, pursuing political opponents and building monuments to himself.
As The National noted, “The lame duck may have lost a lot of his political bite, but he is not yet ready to fly south for the winter.”
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
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