New Delhi: In a CIA document titled Overthrow of Premier Mossadeq of Iran, November 1952-August 1953, which was declassified in 2013, American spy Donald Wilber wrote: “A Shah-General Zahedi combination, supported by CIA local assets and financial backing, would have a good chance of overthrowing Mosaddeq, particularly if this combination should be able to get the largest mobs in the streets and if a sizable portion of the Tehran garrison refused to carry out Mossadeq’s order.”
The paragraph outlines a rough plan to topple the then prime minister of Iran, Mohammad Mosaddegh, and reinstall the monarchy under Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the first Shah of Iran Reza Shah Pahlavi’s son, through a coup orchestrated with the help of Iranian military officer Fazlollah Zahedi, who was eventually chosen to be the prime minister after the coup.
Behind the operationalisation of the plan were the United States’ Central Intelligence Agency, or CIA, and the United Kingdom’s Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6. Operation AJAX is what agents called it.
In August 1953, Mosaddegh was ousted in the coup, only 2 years after he had nationalised the Iranian oil industry. The Anglo-Iranian Oil Company—presently known as British Petroleum or BP—had controlled Iranian oil until then, and so, Mossadegh’s move was aimed at countering foreign control. As had been planned by the CIA-MI6, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi seized power, reinstalling the monarchy in Iran.
About the day of the coup—19 August—Wilber had written, “It was a day that should never have ended for it carried with it such a sense of excitement, of satisfaction, and of jubilation that it is doubtful that any other can come up to it. Our trump card had prevailed and the Shah was victorious.”
The current Israel-Iran conflict is threatening a regime change in Iran driven by foreign interests once again, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking the involvement of the US, and now US’ direct entry into the conflict, as it hit three nuclear sites in Iran—Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan—Sunday. Netanyahu has said Israeli strikes “could certainly” lead to a regime change in Iran, and called on Iranians to revolt against their “weak” government.
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Similarities between 1953 and now
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi or the last Shah’s eldest son and “Crown Prince of Iran” in exile Reza Pahlavi has expressed an interest in reinstalling monarchy in the country after toppling the Islamic Republic, like his father.
However, according to Professor A.K. Ramakrishnan, former chairperson of Centre of West Asian Studies, School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, Pahlavi’s followers are among Iranian expats, and he is not popular in Iran. “People want to move forward and do not want a monarchy. They want more reformist policies,” he told ThePrint.
In an X post, Reza Pahlavi wrote that the current regime “has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing”, adding, “We have a plan for Iran’s future and its flourishing”. “Now is the time to stand; it is time to take back Iran,” another one of his X posts read.
In 1953, the US had taken help from Mohammad Reza Shah’s loyalist networks to organise popular protests against Mossadegh.
“Similarly, in the current scenario, Reza Pahlavi, who is in exile, advocates regime change, mobilising the Iranian diaspora and rallying the Western media to support him,” said Dr Umesh Kumar, assistant professor and assistant dean of admissions at Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University. However, the opposition is too divided, and incapable of replacing the current leadership and taking over the complex governance of Iran, he added.
About the 1953 coup, Kumar explained: “The major interest was to check the evolving socialist character of the state under Mossadegh, keeping the Western monopoly over the oil supply chain. The intervention was also motivated by Cold War geopolitics.”
The ‘Red Scare’ was strong in the US from 1947 to 1957. Kermit Roosevelt, Chief of the Near East and Africa Division, CIA, tried to convince the Shah of Iran II about the coup plan, saying the “failure to act could lead only to a Communist Iran or to a second Korea”, CIA documents revealed.
Israel-US are now guided by similar factors—”Iran’s nuclear programme, its ‘axis of resistance’ network, increasing regional influence, and its opposition to Western hegemony”—Kumar said, adding that Western forces, however, created their argument in favour of ‘democracy’ and removing an ‘undemocratic’ government.
Moreover, America’s open support for Israel’s war against Iran is similar to its support in the 1950s for an operation initially ideated by the UK, Kumar further said.
As of today, Iran is a theocratic Republic with elements of a semi-presidential system. Supreme Leader Khamenei, the highest authority in the land, belongs to the conservative faction. His second-in-command President Masoud Pezeshkian belongs to the reformist faction. He assumed office in July 2024 after winning the popular vote.
Ramakrishnan said, “There always have been these conservative and reformist factions in Iran.” He also expounded on how women’s clothing has come under scrutiny time and again in Iran’s history.
Inspired by the modernisation efforts introduced by Turkey’s Ataturk, the first Shah of Iran from the Pahlavi dynasty—Reza Shah Pahlavi—had banned women from wearing the hijab and burqa in public during his rule. The garments became optional under Mossadegh, but following the 1979 Iranian revolution, the Islamic Republic came to power and started enforcing women’s veiling, which continues to this day.
The perception that the now-Supreme leader Khamenei’s regime is “anti-democratic” has built up support for the current attack on Iran. It stems from reports of curtailed freedoms, such as censorship, lack of press freedom, or filtering of the internet, but also Western narratives that only highlight the negatives—as was done in 1953.
“CIA had several articles planted in major American newspapers and magazines which, when reproduced in Iran, had the desired psychological effect in Iran and contributed to the war of nerves against Mossadeq,” Wilber had written, explaining how the coup had been managed.
However, after the Western interventions in Libya, Iraq and Syria, countries which are faring worse now, the argument of the West bringing democracy to West Asia has started seeming thin, and it would seem the Iranians are also thinking along those lines. For instance, a letter written by four women prisoners serving sentences in Tehran’s Evin jail for participating in the 2022 ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ protests, agrees with Ramakrishnan’s view that Iranians do not want foreign intervention. Published by the pro-Kurdish Firat News Agency on 19 June, the letter was written by Golrokh Ebrahimi Iraee, Verisheh Moradi, Sakineh Parvaneh, and Reyhaneh Ansarinejad.
“Our liberation, the liberation of the people of Iran from the ruling dictatorship, is only possible through mass struggle and by relying on social forces—not by placing our hopes in foreign powers,” the women wrote. “These powers—driven by exploitation, colonialism, war-mongering, and mass killing—have always brought devastation to this region. And for us, they will bring nothing but new forms of destruction and modern-day colonialism.”
Differences between 1953 and now
According to Ramakrishnan, anti-West sentiments are currently strong among Iranians. “Before 1953, Iranians did not have reasons to be angry with the West. Iran was not directly colonised like India, despite having a prominent presence of the Russian and British powers.”
The 1953 coup was followed by the Shah of Iran II’s rule, which included modernisation efforts and giving women the right to vote during the White Revolution, which the West likes to cite. However, it also included the brutal secret police’s (SAVAK) abuses, imprisonment of dissenters, and ban on opposition parties, besides other human rights violations the Amnesty International has reported on in the 1970s.
The Shah of Iran II’s violent last years of rule, combined with the American sanctions on Iran after his fall in the 1979 revolution that saw massive participation of women as well, have changed the Iranian perceptions of the West.
Also, lies about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and now Iran have also been raising doubts about the intentions of the Western powers in West Asia, according to Ramakrishnan.
On the other hand, Ramakrishnan said, the perception of Iran in the West has remained the same. “There is this Orientalist gaze that imagines Iranians as people who don’t have the power to resist, undermining Iran’s internal fight for democracy for years, its strong institutions, and a military infrastructure spread out across the nation against the backdrop of centralised power.”
Now, through the Israel-Iran conflict, the West is slowly learning more about Iran’s capabilities, he added. “The West is learning that Iran is not a small country like Lebanon. It has significant military power. It has control over oil fields and shipping lanes. Four decades of Western sanctions have made Iran a resistant economy that can resist alone.”
He further said that the Trump administration does not have much experience dealing with Iran. “Steve Witkoff (United States Special Envoy to the Middle East) is in the real estate business; (Vice President J.D.) Vance and (Secretary of State) Rubio are not known for their logical voices, and the internal MAGA (‘Make America Great Again’) fight will only grow.”
Kumar pointed out other differences: “At present, the global community, especially the Global South, has been questioning Netanyahu’s approach towards Palestine. The Trump administration has its credibility issues. Additionally, Iran has the support of its close allies, China and Russia.”
So, will there be regime change in Iran? Ramakrishnan said that the Islamic Republic has outsmarted Israel, but what US reinforcements can do, only time will tell.
(Edited by Mannat Chugh)
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