New Delhi: Canada is set for early polls on 28 April, after Prime Minister Mark Carney Sunday moved to dissolve the House of Commons and called for a snap election at a time when tensions are high with its southern neighbour, America.
“I have just requested that the Governor-General (Mary Simon) dissolve parliament and call an election for April 28. She has agreed. We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of (US) President (Donald) Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty,” said Carney, while speaking to the press in Ottawa.
“President Trump claims that Canada is not a real country. He wants to break us, so America can own us. We will not let that happen. We are over the shock of the betrayal, but we will never forget the lesson,” he added.
Carney was sworn into office on 14 March this year, following a two-month leadership election within the Liberal Party following Justin Trudeau’s resignation in January.
The former central banker has called for early elections, hoping to cash in on the momentum the Liberal Party has gained in the last two months, since the inauguration of Trump in the White House earlier this year.
When Trudeau resigned, the Liberal Party, which has been leading Canada since 2015, was falling in opinion polls, with some indicating a 20 percent gap with the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre.
The Liberal government has also been facing a cost-of-living crisis in a stuttering economy, with a number of divisive policies relating to “carbon tax” and immigration controls.
However, the introduction of Trump into the mix, and the tariff war between US and Canada has given the Liberal Party new momentum in Canadian politics. Polling around 20 percent in January, the party today has the support of 37.5 per cent of Canadians, according to a poll tracker published by CBC News.
The party has a slight lead over the Conservatives, currently polling at 37.1 percent, while the New Democrat Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, is in third spot with around 11.6 percent of votes.
The poll tracker gives the Liberal Party a 48 percent chance of winning a majority. However, on Sunday, all five leaders from the major parties in Canada—the Liberals, Conservatives, New Democrats, Bloc-Québécois and the Greens—made their pitch to the Canadian voters.
Election is partly about Trump
Trump has shocked Ottawa by saying he wants to make Canada the 51st US state, terming the border between the two countries as “artificially drawn” and his promises of tariffs.
The US president’s words have turned the Canadian election from one being an inevitable crowning of Poilievre as next PM to a battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
All five political leaders focussed on Trump in their speeches Sunday.
While Carney has called for unity, and hit out at Poilievre, declaring that “anger” is not a solution to problems, the opposition leader has instead argued for negotiating with Washington from a “position of strength”.
All eyes are now on 2 April, when Trump is set to impose new global reciprocal tariffs.
Currently, the US has imposed 25 percent tariffs on imports of Canadian steel and aluminium. Trump has hit out at Canada’s automobile sector and its timber sector in speeches since assuming office.
Trudeau, who was deeply unpopular with the electorate, was able to see an upswing in support as he took on Trump, with Ottawa imposing its own tariffs on the US.
For Canada, the US is the most important economic partner. Canada exported $591 billion worth of goods to the US in 2024, which accounted for 76 percent of its total exports. Ottawa imported roughly $488 billion worth of goods from the US, which accounted for 62 percent of its total imports. Its largest exports to the US were energy, motor vehicles and parts and consumer goods, while its largest imports were motor vehicles and parts, consumer goods and basic industrial products.
The ongoing trade war upends this deep economic engagement, which accounts for a large number of jobs on both sides of the border.
Trump, however, seems to have little care who the next leader of Canada will be. In his first term as president, he had renegotiated a free trade agreement with Trudeau’s administration and Mexico.
Cost-of-living crisis
Up until winter 2024, the main issue facing Canadians was the housing crisis, which led to a cost-of-living crisis.
Trudeau post COVID-19 had removed the guardrails on immigration policies in Canada, which led to a surge in population. In 2022, population in Canada grew by 2.5 percent and in 2023 by 3.1 percent. However, the surge in migration to Canada exacerbated the housing crisis in the country.
Trudeau’s government in 2024 curbed its goals on immigration, planning to bring in 395,000 new permanent residents in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, down from 485,000 in 2024.
The reversal in immigration policies by the Trudeau government was an acceptance of the major issues facing Canada: cost of living and immigration. The two crises will play an important role in the upcoming elections, with both Carney and Poilievre making their pitch to voters on building more houses and investing in capital expenditure.
Poilievre has promised to “axe the tax” and spend more on infrastructure, while Carney has attempted to pivot the Liberals back to the centre economically, with a promise to spend less and focus more on investment in homes and military infrastructure.
Who will rebuild ties with India?
For those watching the Canadian election from New Delhi, the major interest will be on which party would be keen to rebuild the relationship with India.
Ties between New Delhi and Ottawa hit the lowest point after the Trudeau administration alleged that Indian officials were linked to the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
A designated terrorist in India, Nijjar was gunned down outside a gurdwara in British Columbia province in June 2023. Three months later, Trudeau first made the allegation of Indian officials being linked to the killing of Nijjar on the floor of the House of Commons.
India rejected the allegations as “absurd and motivated”. A year later, in October 2024, India withdrew its high commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma and five other diplomats from Canada, after Ottawa requested a waiver of their diplomatic immunity. India also expelled six Canadian diplomats, including acting high commissioner Stewart Wheeler.
However, in recent weeks, there has been a thaw in ties, with Canadian intelligence chief Daniel Rogers travelling to New Delhi this month to participate in an intelligence conclave chaired by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval on the margins of the Raisina Dialogue. There are reports of both countries moving to appoint high commissioners once again and restart ties.
It remains to be seen whether Carney or Poilievre would be able improve ties between India and Canada, which were torpedoed under Trudeau’s almost decade-long leadership.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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