New Delhi: The underperformance of hypersonic and supersonic Russian missiles against Western-made air defence systems in Ukraine is raising questions about the efficacy and utility of Moscow’s missile technology. Experts ThePrint spoke to believe that a combination of reasons including — repurposed technology, speed variance, and Western support — are behind the missiles not living up to their hype.
In recent days, Russia has upped the ante and launched a barrage of missile attacks into Ukraine. This includes 9 waves of missile volleys just during the month of May.
These missile attacks include the showpieces of the Kremlin’s missile arsenal — the hypersonic Kinzhal “dagger”, the Kalibr cruise missile, and either the S-400, or the Iskander-M.
Ukraine’s air force has claimed to intercept or shoot down all these missile barrages. Significantly, Kyiv claims to have shot down 29 out of 30 missiles that were launched between 17 and 18 May.
After Ukraine shot down the hypersonic Kinzhal for the first time using western-supplied Patriot air defence systems, Ukraine’s Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk had congratulated the country on taking down the missile, which Russian President Vladimir Putin had described as “unstoppable.”
The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 6 Kinzhal missiles from 6 MiG-31K aircraft, 9 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea, 3 S-400 or Iskander-M missiles, and 6 Shahed / Geran-2 drones over night, all of which were successfully intercepted.https://t.co/Cu9pZqA2MM pic.twitter.com/k58PEKr9bt
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 16, 2023
“Russian missiles are almost certainly underperforming in Ukraine,” Christopher Clary, Assistant Professor at University at Albany, tells ThePrint.
“We have many satellite images that indicate near misses of targets by Russian missiles or other munitions. We also have leaked U.S. assessments from early in the war that declares failure rates for Russian missiles as much higher than would be expected for Western systems,” Clary adds.
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Is Moscow rebranding old missile technology?
Analysts highlight outdated technology as being central to this underperformance of Russian missiles. Specifically, for the Kinzhal dagger, many argue that old designs have been repurposed as “new’ innovations.
“Moscow loves to brag that the Kinzhal missile is unstoppable and uses new, hypersonic technology. However, it’s actually old technology. It is essentially a ballistic missile launched from the air,” Lisa Koch, Assistant Professor at Claremont McKenna College, tells ThePrint.
The CSIS Missile Defense project argues, that the Kinzhal is most likely an adapted version of Moscow’s Iskander ground-launched ballistic missile. The Iskander has been in service since 2006.
Alluding to the above rationale, missiles expert Jeffrey Lewis said to science and technology magazine Popular Mechanics, “Kinzhal is nothing more than an air-launched ballistic missile.”
Another area of criticism has been that the Kinzhal doesn’t operate at hypersonic speed —which is 5 times the speed of sound — throughout its flight.
“While the Kinzhal certainly travels at very high speeds, it slows down below hypersonic speed in its terminal phase, when it gets closer to its target,” Koch explains.
Due to this speed fluctuation, she adds, “Patriot missile defence batteries do have some chance to intercept the Kinzhal missiles, although it’s not clear yet what the success rate is.”
Further, questioning the veracity of its hypersonic tag, a NATO report states, “Kinzhal is not generally characterised as a hypersonic weapon.”
Patriots are meant to defend small areas
While their success rate remains unclear, it is clear that the Patriots have been linked to deterring Russian missile volleys on Ukraine.
However, the Patriots are not a one-stop solution for Ukraine’s air defence. Their integration into Ukraine’s arsenal cannot be equated as the sole reason for Kyiv deterring Russian missile strikes.
As security experts Mark F. Cancian and Tom Karako explain, the Patriot can only defend against a small designated area. “The Patriot will protect only one piece of the country against certain kinds of threats. It will not put a protective bubble overall, or even large parts of Ukraine,” they add.
Explaining how the Patriot has deterred missile attacks in Ukraine, Clary says, “If reports alluding to Kinzhal’s targeting Patriot batteries are accurate, then this would essentially signify that Patriots had to defend a very minimal area.”
Essentially, the underperformance of Russian missile systems is due to more factors than just the efficacy of western-supplied air-defence systems like the Patriot.
“This underperformance might be because of Ukrainian (with possibly outside assistance) electronic warfare capabilities, they might be because of design or maintenance issues with the Russian missiles, or because of poor intelligence or other geospatial measurement problems,” explains Clary.
A vast range of factors seems to be responsible for the poor strike rate of Russia’s missile capacity.
At the end of March 2022, a US defence official summed up the poor performance of Russian precision-guided munitions stating, “Either they’re failing to launch or they’re failing to hit the target, or they’re failing to explode on contact.”
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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