Rebuilding credibility
Surjit S. Bhalla | Executive Director, IMF
The Indian Express
Bhalla hopes that the leaked NSO survey on consumption expenditure is “officially released” so that “researchers, analysts, politicians and even former prime ministers can evaluate for themselves how bad the NSO data really are”.
He writes that the “previous NSO survey on employment estimated the population in 2017-18 to be 1,074 million, when even mathematically challenged individuals estimated it to be upwards of 1,300 million.” This “under-estimation has consequences for a major policy variable of interest — jobs and job growth” adds Bhalla since even if the “unemployment rate is not affected by the estimate of aggregate population”, the number of jobs is.
According to Bhalla, with time, “economies became complicated and the national accounts data moved with the times, became more sophisticated and captured the trends in the economy much better than surveys” but survey organisations like the NSO “refused to move”. He argues that the “secular decline in NSO” marks “a sad occasion for an institution that was a trend setting statistical institution”. Bhalla states that “not every government report should be accepted” because “sometimes” institutions fail to come out with a credible report. However, he writes that “the unit-level data should be released” so that the world finds out “how truly informative and credible” NSO data is.
How the Constitution was betrayed
Gautam Bhatia | Delhi-based advocate
Hindustan Times
Bhatia states that the “written Constitution governs and limits the actions of the government” and the “constitutional conventions play an important role when it comes to the conduct of lawmakers”. However, he notes that the “constitutional conventions are also fragile” and “their continued existence relies upon the fact that constitutional functionaries and political actors act in good faith, and do not subordinate process to naked power play”.
Bhatia argues that the “events in Maharashtra reflect a near-complete breakdown of constitutional conventions”. He writes that it is “clear that whoever finally ‘wins’ the political game, constitutional conventions have lost”. The Supreme Court was left to “sort out the mess” but “sorting out political messes is not the court’s task and nor should it be”. Bhatia maintains that “the court’s order followed a line of precedent, and is a justified one”. He writes that a floor test “is the only solution that allows the court to tread a fine line between policing and democratic process”. However, Bhatia notes that “if the breakdown of constitutional conventions continues at this rate,” the situation “will be beyond even the court’s power to remedy”.
The misadventure of a new citizenship regime
Niraja Gopal Jayal | Professor, Centre for the Study of Law and Governance, JNU
The Hindu
Jayal believes that the “appetite of the Indian state for counting its people is evidently insatiable”. A nationwide NRC intends to “sift and sort citizens from non-citizens, to include and exclude… [and] to weed out ‘infiltrators’ destined for detention camps and potential deportation,” she writes and adds that the “moral legitimacy of a nation-wide NRC” is questionable.
She notes that the “work of ‘authenticating’ 87.9 crore people would entail the deployment of 1.33 crore officials”. In a way, “the entire population of India and more than half its government officials will be involved, for at least the next 10 years, in counting and being counted”. Jayal argues that “this is a nightmarish prospect for poor and unlettered citizens whose ancestors have known no other land but this, but who are unable to produce acceptable documentation”.
Furthermore, she writes that the “cumulative import of these developments is the entrenchment of a conception of citizenship inconsistent with that adopted at Independence”. The “minutiae of implementation” are only “cautionary arguments against this political misadventure” but the “compelling argument lies in its adverse repercussions for the delicate but fraying plural social fabric of this nation”, concludes Jayal.
Emerging nuclear crises that the world must brace for
Richard N. Haass | President, Council on Foreign Relations
Mint
Haass examines how competition over nuclear weapons could once again become “the greatest threat to global stability”. This is because nuclear technology is becoming “increasingly available” and other factors such as “renewed great power rivalry”, US’ weakened alliances and “fading memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki”, he explains.
Haass notes that US and Russia are now focused on modernising existing arsenals, especially after the US exited the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty when Russia was found to have violated its terms. US’ exit from the “imperfect” Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) may have “heightened risks stemming from Iran”, he adds. It is unlikely that the US or Israel will take a “preventive strike designed to destroy a significant part of its programme” but such a strike could lead to regional players like Turkey developing or acquiring weapons of their own, he explains.
North Korea’s neighbouring countries, which is “far ahead of Iran”, may feel similar pressures and follow a “Use them or lose them” policy. In the case of India and Pakistan, “command and control of weapons could break down and one or more devices could find their way into the hands of terrorists”, concludes Haass.
Go off the linear track
Ronnie Screwvala | Chairman, upGrad
Economic Times
If India wants to be a $5 trillion economy by 2025, unconventional and “non-linear” thinking is the way to go, writes Screwvala. India’s GDP growth needs to be twice the current speed and the government has already undertaken several measures to reach that goal, like mass investments in infrastructure, a revised target for renewable energy and fiscal measures like lowering corporate tax etc., he writes.
However, “India has been too insulated and needs a lot more external facing”, writes Screwvala, He calls for more soft power tactics like “evangelising yoga”, improving the quality of higher education, a public-private partnership model to boost tourism and ushering in more global Indian ambassadors to “market” India.
Also, farmer incomes need to be doubled by 2022 so that “rural India [is] part of the country’s growth story”, explains Screwvala. Instead of “dole-based” measures like job reservation, the government must raise the aspirations of rural youth by giving them more access to the same opportunities “as their peers in Indian cities”, he writes.
Has India’s financial sector lost the plot?
Bandiram Prasad | Runs the consulting firm ‘Growth Markets Advisory Services’
Hindu Business Line
Prasad calls for a comprehensive and “honest” review of financial institutions in India, given the failure of many reforms and systems.
He argues that a decline in rural banking reflects the bias of public sector banks regarding rural and semi-urban areas. When it comes to markets, only half the listed companies are traded, leading to “liquidity concentration in a few stocks only”, writes Prasad. Furthermore, in the last year, banking, finance and insurance have mobilised 60 per cent of resources from primary markets leaving little for the manufacturing sector.
The state of banks is concerning too, writes Prasad. NBFCs are heavily dependent on banks, straining their profitability, older private banks are experiencing “management lapses” and commercial banks are struggling to fulfill “short-term finance demands”. It shows how India has neglected its banking sector, adds Prasad. An “honest review of the fault lines of finance by a truly independent commission” is needed and government and the public sector must set an example for “financial discipline and corporate governance”, he writes.
IL&FS was a Lehman-like moment
T.T. Ram Mohan| Professor, IIM, Ahmedabad
Business Standard
Mohan calls the collapse of IL&FS, an NBFC that fell short of cash and defaulted on several of its obligations, in September a “Lehman-like… blow to the Indian economy”. The fall of Lehman Brothers seriously impacted the US economy and precipitated the 2008 global financial crisis. He tries to determine if political considerations were involved in the fall of the IL&FS debacle, which shook the confidence of NBFCs, led to the NPA crisis and eventually hampered India’s GDP.
In 2008, the Federal Reserve chose not to save Lehman Brothers as it was “under intense political pressure to avoid a bailout”, writes Mohan. The extent of the economic risks were not properly examined and a lesson was learnt — “You can’t let a major financial institution fail”, he adds. Similarly, when IL&FS’ liquidity problems began to worsen and “funding requirement rose considerably”, the government and public institutions chose to do nothing, especially as there were “cries of ‘scam’ in the media”, he explains.
In lieu of the current slowdown, this shows how “political concerns about bailing out a private entity prevailed over the imperative to contain the damage to the economy”, writes Mohan.