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HomeThePrint EssentialWhy today, ‘Super Tuesday’, is most crucial for US Democratic presidential hopefuls

Why today, ‘Super Tuesday’, is most crucial for US Democratic presidential hopefuls

Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Mike Bloomberg’s fortunes will be on the line as 14 US states and one territory hold primaries today.

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New Delhi: Every US election year, ‘Super Tuesday’ becomes the buzzword across the country because of its electoral importance to either party that is looking to pick a presidential candidate.

On the first Tuesday of March, over a dozen US states and territories hold primaries, apportioning a large part of the total delegates who eventually elect the party’s presidential candidate. This time, all eyes in the Democratic Party are on the Super Tuesday polls in 14 states and the territory of American Samoa on 3 March, which will likely set the tone for the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in July.

With hopefuls Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer withdrawing from the race after performing poorly in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, it’s now down to four candidates — front-runner Bernie Sanders, fellow progressive Elizabeth Warren, moderate former Vice-President Joe Biden, and billionaire Michael Bloomberg. Many Super Tuesday battles are expected to be tough fights between Sanders and Biden.

This time, California and Texas are among the states that will hold primaries on Super Tuesday, with over one-third of the total delegates who will eventually elect the presidential candidate up for grabs. Candidates who fail to win enough delegates in key states usually struggle to remain competitive in the remaining primaries race, and drop out.


Also read: Who’s better for India: Donald Trump or a Democrat leader?


What are primaries?

In the US, parties elect their presidential candidates (except incumbents) through one of two processes — primaries and caucuses. Only four of the 50 US states now hold a caucus, while the others hold primaries.

“In a primary election, the public vote for people called ‘delegates’, who are supporting the particular person they want to run for president. Each state has a certain number of delegates depending on how many people live there,” noted a report in the BBC.

In each state primary, the delegates are awarded proportionally. Thus, the number of votes a candidate polls as well as the winning margin play a role in determining the number of delegates they bag. A candidate needs to secure at least 15 per cent of the vote to be awarded any delegates.

By July, when the parties’ national conventions are held, the candidate with the most number of delegates is elected the presidential nominee.


Also read: Why age doesn’t matter for Trump, Sanders, Bloomberg, Biden


Why does Super Tuesday matter so much this year?

This Super Tuesday, Democratic candidates are competing in several important states, including California, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Utah. Together, the 14 states and one territory accounted for 1,344 of the nearly 4,000 total Democratic delegates.

For the first time in nearly three decades, most primaries are not a two-candidate contest. “Because of that, small changes in the vote count — and particularly in who manages to top the 15 per cent threshold necessary to get any delegates — can shape the delegate totals in surprising ways,” noted a report in Vox.


Also read: India’s Bernie Sanders will be a raging capitalist


Likely outcomes 

In California, which accounts for 415 delegates, Sanders continues to hold a double-digit lead over Biden, according to recent polls compiled by Five Thirty Eight. However, Biden, Bloomberg and Warren are all polling above 15 per cent, so they are also likely to bag some delegates.

Texas is shaping up to be a closer race — currently, Sanders and Biden seem to be tied in the race for 228 delegates.

Among other states, Sanders is ahead of Biden in Virginia, and leads Warren in Utah and Colorado. Biden, who recently won the South Carolina primary, has a slight edge over Sanders in neighbouring North Carolina.

Super Tuesday is also important for Bloomberg, who joined the race late and missed the chance to compete in earlier primaries, but has spent millions of dollars on media and social media campaigning. How he fares on Super Tuesday could determine his future prospects going ahead.


Also read: Bloomberg in hot seat, barbs over healthcare plans — most fiery Democratic debate yet


 

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