Despite the depreciation of the rupee, India continues to be a magnet — safer than peers like Turkey, South Africa or Brazil, and offers greater returns than the US or Europe.
The Union Budget must cut revenue expenditure so growth-boosting tax cuts are possible, while monetary policy should focus on growth-inflation dynamics instead of defending the falling rupee.
Monetary Policy Committee Friday kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for an eighth straight policy meeting, in a continued attempt towards bringing down inflation to 4% target.
In my view as the finance secretary during UPA II govt, the least RBI could have done was not to further depress the sentiment with doomsday prophecies.
Most global central banks acknowledge easing in inflation but note it remains above target. Recent geopolitical disruptions also pose upside risk to inflation, a view held by RBI as well.
Employment & education are some of the constraints. Plus, greater dependence on domestic sources of growth will deny India momentum that comes from accessing international markets.
While persistent inflation led to failure to achieve inflation target in 2022 for the first time since 2016 and exports slowed down, the banking sector continued to be resilient.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis has led to a rush towards safe haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. Investors are selling riskier assets such as Indian equities.
Mizoram chief minister Lalduhoma has flagged an unusual rise in foreign arrivals. Nearly 2,000 Western visitors entered Mizoram between June and December 2024.
It’s easy to understand why the government can’t speak the hard truth. When this war ends, as all wars do, India’s interests will lie with both the winner and the loser.
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