In recent La Niña years, global losses have ranged from $258 billion to $329 billion. The phenomenon is often linked with droughts in California, Argentina and Brazil, and flooding in Southeast Asia.
IMD says 'atmosphere moving towards La Nina conditions, which is good,' adding that 'intensity of rain will get better and July is likely to end in a surplus'.
While the chances of an El Niño developing early in the year are small, current forecasts say there is a 55 per cent chance it could develop between June and August.
Even if the El Niño, which can cause a monsoon deficit in India, does set in as predicted, other weather phenomena could potentially mitigate its effects.
IMD data shows east, northeast India had 18% rainfall deficit between 1 June and 10 August. But central and southern regions saw excess of 24% and 28%, respectively.
Experts agree that these weather patterns are the result of a combination of internal variability, an unusually long La Nina period, and climate change.
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