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HomePoliticsSpeaker Ramesh Kumar holds the cards in Karnataka political crisis, for now

Speaker Ramesh Kumar holds the cards in Karnataka political crisis, for now

Ramesh Kumar will decide on resignations Tuesday. Congress-JD(S) cabinet has decided to resign en masse and form fresh ministry with some rebel MLAs.

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Bengaluru: All eyes will be on Karnataka assembly speaker Ramesh Kumar Tuesday, when he is set to take a call on the resignations tendered by 12 MLAs of the ruling Congress-JD(S) alliance and an independent.

If the resignations are accepted, it could rob the coalition of its fragile majority in the House of 224 (excluding the nominated member) and possibly pave the way for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to assume office.

The BJP emerged as the biggest player in the May 2018 assembly elections with 105 seats, a few short of majority, but its bid to form the government was thwarted by a post-poll alliance forged by rivals Congress and the JD(S). The terms included JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy’s nomination as Chief Minister despite his party winning just 37 seats against the Congress’ 78.

Before the ongoing resignation crisis began, the alliance had 118 seats, together with the lone MLA of the Bahujan Samaj Party and two independents. But one of the independents, minister H. Nagesh, has resigned from the cabinet and withdrawn support to the coalition.

If the resignation of the MLAs is accepted, the effective strength of the Karnataka assembly will fall to 212, bringing the halfway mark down to 106.

The Congress-JD(S) alliance will be left with 105 legislators.

Nagesh, who was inducted into the cabinet just 21 days ago to keep him on the coalition’s side, has suggested in his resignation letter to the governor that he is open to supporting the BJP, which takes the latter’s strength up to 106.

“Nagesh is under tremendous pressure exerted by some groups. He has spoken to the CM. We are in touch with him,” said the Congress’ troubleshooter and minister D.K. Shivakumar on the independent MLA’s resignation.

Chief Minister Kumaraswamy, who returned from the US Sunday night, hit the ground running, meeting a couple of the MLAs who have resigned. He also held a separate meeting of Congress ministers, where it was decided that his entire cabinet would resign en masse, so a fresh one could be constituted with some of the rebel MLAs.


Also read: After Karnataka, BJP can poach MP, Rajasthan and Bengal but it doesn’t mean end of Congress


 

Dissatisfaction in the ranks

Operation Kamala, the BJP’s alleged poaching exercise first witnessed in 2008 is just one aspect of the current crisis.

The first set of eight MLAs who sent in their resignations to the speaker’s office on 6 July reportedly had plans to help the BJP come to power. However, the second set of MLAs, comprising Ramalinga Reddy, S.T. Somashekhar. Byrathi Basavaraju, and Munirathna, submitted their resignations because they were angry with the Congress as well as the JD(S) over “unfair treatment” and their alleged refusal to release funds for development work in Bengaluru.

Among these rebel MLAs, a few are close to former CM Siddaramaiah and are said to be extremely upset with Deputy Chief Minister G. Parameshwara, who also holds the portfolio for Bengaluru development.

Parameshwara, however, denied this.

“I am in touch with the MLAs in Mumbai and they have no problems with me,” he told mediapersons.

Meanwhile, the 10 MLAs holed up in a resort in Mumbai are expected to reach Bengaluru by Monday evening and meet the speaker in his chambers to impress upon him to accept their resignations.

Four scenarios may emerge out of these developments:

1) The speaker accepts the resignations, and the Kumaraswamy government fails to prove its majority during a floor test, which may be held when the monsoon session begins 12 July. This would enable the BJP to form the government. If the speaker refuses to accept the resignations, it gives the BJP ammunition to claim he acted in a partisan manner.

2) The Congress and the JD(S) manage to convince most of the rebels to stay on, and give them ministerial berths.

3) Another chief minister, possibly from the Congress, is nominated, which was the first suggestion made by former party chief Sonia Gandhi, as many of the legislators have expressed their dissatisfaction with Kumaraswamy.

4) The BJP may wait for a few more legislators to resign and shift their support to the party, and then move for a no-confidence motion as soon as the assembly convenes. A source in the BJP told ThePrint that they were also contemplating seeking President’s rule in Karnataka. “The situation will be such that we will have a comfortable majority to form the government and there would be no need for midterm elections,” the senior BJP leader added.


Also read: Karnataka govt in crisis, CM Kumaraswamy, state Congress chief travel abroad


 

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