New Delhi: If the number of its elected lawmakers were to determine a party’s strength, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would at best be a marginal player in Andhra Pradesh, where it drew a blank in the last Lok Sabha and state assembly elections in 2019.
Yet, in many ways, the BJP has been occupying the centre stage of political discourse in the state in the run-up to the 2024 elections.
The approach of both the ruling Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) in the state, and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) — the main opposition party in Andhra — suggest that these parties would rather dodge the BJP’s fusillades, than be confrontational, giving the BJP a position of perceived strength despite its weak electoral presence.
In the past, both the YSRCP and the TDP supported contentious legislations such as the Citizenship Amendment Act, and decisions such as the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. Both the Andhra parties also endorsed the NDA-backed candidates in the last presidential and vice-presidential polls.
“The problem is no one opposes us in the state. It is almost as if the lack of voices resisting us is impeding our growth,” a top central BJP leader told ThePrint. He was speaking only half in jest.
The presence of both the YSRCP and the TDP at the inauguration of the new Parliament building by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month, which was boycotted by 21 Opposition parties, further illustrates this point.
“The BJP is a critical player in Andhra Pradesh despite its marginal presence there because it holds the levers of power at the Centre. It [previously] saw Telangana as a more fertile state for its growth, but the Karnataka loss [last month] appears to have dealt a blow to its ambition. Now the Congress is on the upswing in Telangana,” said K. Srinivasulu, a retired professor of Hyderabad’s Osmania University.
There seems to be growing buzz in Andhra’s political circles over a possible political realignment in the state in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha and Andhra assembly elections.
Party insiders and political observers in Andhra told ThePrint that the BJP seems to be taking a more aggressive stand against the YSRCP — a party the BJP has been able to depend on, despite it not being part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), especially in the Rajya Sabha where the NDA is in minority — while responding more warmly towards former ally TDP.
While barbs against the ruling YSCRCP in Andhra by the BJP’s state unit are not new, political observers claimed that the national party’s central leadership had so far refrained from making a direct attack against YSRCP chief and Andhra CM Jagan Mohan Reddy.
That changed this month after Union Home Minister Amit Shah met TDP chief N. Chandrababu Naidu on 4 June. The TDP had walked out of the NDA in 2018 over differences on funding for Andhra Pradesh.
Six days after the Shah-Naidu meeting, BJP president J.P. Nadda targeted the YSRCP government in Andhra, terming it one of the “most corrupt”. Days later, on 11 June, Union Home Minister Amit Shah waded into the issue, putting Reddy on the dock for not just “corruption and scandals”, but also over the latter’s “failure” to stem farmer suicides.
Reddy, however, issued a restrained response to the barb, saying he was not banking on the support of the BJP for retaining power.
“The BJP’s immediate concern is public opinion building [against the perception] that the party is hand in glove with the YSRCP, which is perceived [by people] to be corrupt. The non-arrest of Kadapa MP Avinash Reddy, an accused in the Vivekananda Reddy murder case, is also emboldening that perception as the case is being handled by the CBI, which comes under the Centre,” said an Andhra BJP leader.
Reddy, a former MP and uncle of CM Jagan Mohan Reddy, was found murdered in March 2019.
While many political observers feel Naidu stands to gain more in the event of an alliance with the BJP due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popular appeal, there is also a perception that the BJP-YSRCP’s recent sparring may just be a 2024 poll gimmick.
Subramanyam Dogiparthi, a retired academician and political commentator based in Andhra Pradesh, believes that the YSRCP and BJP were putting up a “fake fight”. He added that a pre-poll alliance with the BJP suits neither TDP, nor the YSRCP.
“It’s a fixed match between the two [the BJP and YSRCP]. By sparring publicly, the YSRCP wants to break the perception that it is an unofficial ally of the BJP, which is in turn only helping Jagan. The YSRCP fears that a perceived affinity with the BJP will make its minority vote bank anxious. The BJP, on the other hand, knows it needs the YSRCP’s support in the Rajya Sabha to get key Bills passed. Naidu also stands to gain more anti-incumbency votes if it stays out of any alliance with the BJP, which knows very well that the TDP is no pushover,” said Dogiparthi.
BJP national secretary and co-in-charge of Andhra Pradesh Sunil Deodhar, who ThePrint spoke to on the BJP’s strategy for the upcoming elections, refused to comment on specific alliance-related questions.
Meanwhile, TDP Rajya Sabha MP K. Ravindra Kumar told The Print, “It would be too premature to comment [on a possible alliance between the TDP and BJP].”
Adding to the speculations on party equations in the state ahead of next year’s elections, YSRCP Rajya Sabha MP V. Vijayasai Reddy tweeted Thursday, “We do not need alliances, the @YSRCParty has worked hard for the people and we are confident that the people will bless us again. Also, it does not matter if the opposition comes together in AP because always remember that zero + zero equals zero!!”
We do not need alliances, the @YSRCParty has worked hard for the people and we are confident that the people will bless us again. Also, it does not matter if the opposition comes together in AP because always remember that zero + zero equals zero!!
— Vijayasai Reddy V (@VSReddy_MP) June 15, 2023
Also read: At NTR centenary celebrations, Rajinikanth all praise for Naidu & his ‘Vision 2047’ plan for Andhra
Talking points
While the central leadership’s targeting of Reddy is recent, the state BJP unit has been severely critical of the YSRCP, particularly about the CM’s faith. Reddy is Christian.
According to Deodhar the alleged issue of “conversion” of Hindus to Islam and Christianity is among the areas identified by the BJP for its poll campaign.
“We are telling the people that the YSR Congress is neck-deep in corruption. There is complete financial mismanagement which will land the state in trouble. On top of that, religious conversions are rampant. Pastors are being paid by the public exchequer. Temples are razed and perpetrators go scot-free. We have also promised to scrap the 3 per cent reservation for Muslims introduced by the Congress under Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy [former CM and Jagan Reddy’s father],” Deodhar said.
Parallelly, while Naidu’s past attempts to warm up to the BJP were seemingly cold-shouldered by the BJP, it appears more open to the idea now, particularly after having suffered a blow in Karnataka, losing its only government in the south, said political observers.
The BJP is already an ally of actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan’s outfit Jana Sena Party (JSP), which is also likely to formalise an alliance with the TDP.
“Our task, for now, is to draw the anti-establishment votes. Any decision on alliances or seat-sharing is something that will be handled by the central leadership,” said a BJP leader.
Some YSRCP leaders, however, feel that the BJP’s calculations go beyond preventing a repeat of its 2019 debacle in the state, when it failed to win a single Lok Sabha or assembly seat, and had to settle with a vote share of 0.96 per cent and 0.84 per cent respectively.
In 2014, which was the last Lok Sabha election held in a united Andhra Pradesh, the BJP, contesting in an alliance with the TDP, had bagged three Lok Sabha and nine assembly seats, with a vote share of 7.2 per cent and 4.13 per cent respectively.
“The BJP, it appears, has sensed an opening to replicate the Maharashtra template. It wants to enter the state by using TDP as a clutch, and later discard it to come on its own. The YSRCP is also facing headwinds, as illustrated by the results of the recently held polls to the state legislative council,” said a YSRCP leader.
In the polls for seven vacant MLA quota legislative council seats held on 23 March, the TDP pulled off a surprise win, as four YSRCP MLAs cross-voted. The TDP also won three seats in MLC polls held in the graduates constituencies on 13 March, registering its first set of electoral victories since suffering a drubbing in the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly polls.
Meanwhile, the BJP is trying to build its own base in the state.
In April, the BJP inducted Kiran Kumar Reddy, the last chief minister of undivided Andhra Pradesh, into the party. The party lacks popular faces in its fold.
Apart from Reddy votes, which is considered a YSRCP vote bank, the BJP is also eyeing backward caste votes, primarily Kapus, to grow in the state, said political observers. The state BJP president Somu Veerraju is a Kapu.
TDP, on the other hand, draws its support from the Kamma community, which suffered a major blow economically when Jagan scrapped TDP’s plan to have Amaravati as the state capital, pointed out Srinivasulu, a professor of political science at Osmania University.
“The YSRCP has no reason to ally with the BJP as it would like to retain the minority votes. The TDP, which also does not stand to gain much, appears desperate more because it may be feeling that allying with the BJP will help neutralise the political onslaught of the YSRCP,” he said.
Srinivasulu added: “We must also keep in mind that if the TDP does not do well this time, there will be questions on its future as the party does not have a robust second-generation leadership. Naidu is growing old and his son failed to prove himself.”
(Edited by Poulomi Banerjee)
Also Read: This is how Jagan Reddy has turned into a political juggernaut in Andhra