Lucknow: The BJP won at least 3 mayoral seats due to a division of opposition votes in the Uttar Pradesh civic polls this month, as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) were caught in an internecine fight that benefitted even new players.
An analysis of the 13 May results shows that BSP chief Mayawati suffered maximum damage — the party not only lost two of its mayoral seats at Aligarh and Meerut, its tally of seats won in urban local bodies (ULBs) is also significantly less than in 2017.
The advantage went to the BJP when it came to the number and percentage of seats won in mayor, corporator, nagar palika parishad chairperson, nagar palika parishad members, nagar panchayat chairperson, and nagar panchayat member polls.
The new players such as the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also fared better this time around than six years ago.
In 2017, the BJP won 14 of the 16 mayor seats while accounting for 45.85 per cent of the winning municipal corporation councillors, 35.35 per cent of nagar palika chairpersons, 17.54 per cent of nagar palika councillors, 22.83 per cent of nagar panchayat chairpersons and 12.22 per cent of nagar panchayat members.
It not only won all 17 mayor seats [one seat was added this year] this time, but its percentage improved to 57.25 per cent for municipal corporation councillors and 44.72 per cent for nagar palika chairpersons. Similarly, the percentage went up to 25.53 per cent, 35.11 per cent and 19.55 per cent in the case of palika councillors, nagar panchayat chairpersons, and nagar panchayat members.
The BSP’s percentage of winning municipal corporation councillors and nagar palika chairpersons went down from 11.31 and 14.65 per cent to 5.99 per cent and 8.04 per cent, respectively.
In the case of nagar palika councillors, nagar panchayat chairpersons and members, its share declined from 4.98 per cent, 10.27 per cent and 4.01 per cent to 3.59 per cent, 6.8 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively.
As for the SP, its percentage slipped from 15.54 per cent and 22.73 per cent to 13.45 per cent and 17.59 per cent, respectively, for municipal corporation councillors and nagar palika chairpersons.
Its percentage of winning nagar palika councillors, nagar panchayat chairpersons and members dropped from 9.07 per cent, 18.95 per cent and 8.34 per cent to 7.98 per cent, 14.52 per cent and 6.76 per cent, too.
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Erosion of Congress base as well
Another major observation from the polling data issued by the Election Commission is the decline of the Congress’ fortunes.
The SP replaced the Congress as the second highest vote-gainer in at least three mayoral seats in Mathura, Varanasi and Kanpur. The BSP did the same in Moradabad and Ghaziabad.
From 8.46 per cent of municipal corporation councillors and 4.55 per cent of nagar palika chairpersons in 2017, the Congress tally went down to 5.42 per cent and 2.01 per cent, respectively.
Similarly, the percentage of winning nagar palika councillors, nagar panchayat chairpersons and members went down from 3 per cent, 3.88 per cent and 2.32 per cent, to 1.71 per cent, 2.57 per cent and 1.07 per cent.
Meanwhile, the AIMIM and the AAP gained slightly across all the six levels of the ULBs (see graphics) at the cost of other opposition parties.
Division of Muslim votes
One major takeaway from the poll results is the split of the Muslim votes due to the presence of multiple opposition candidates.
In at least three mayoral seats, Aligarh, Firozabad and Saharanpur, the SP and BSP had fielded Muslim candidates. The BJP won with a handsome margin in the three seats.
In Aligarh, the difference of votes between the BJP and the SP candidates was less than the number of votes bagged by the BSP and Congress candidates who came third and fourth.
The difference of votes between the BJP and the SP candidates was less than the number of votes bagged by the BSP candidate who came third in Firozabad. A similar scenario emerged in Meerut where the AIMIM came second, pushing the BSP candidate to the third position.
Shashikant Pandey, head of department of political science, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, said that Mayawati and AIMIM fielding Muslim candidates helped in counter-polarisation of Hindu votes as observed in the past.
“It has been observed in the assembly polls too, that wherever the population of Hindus and Muslims was about 40 per cent, a counter polarisation of Hindu votes was witnessed, helping the BJP. If multiple parties field Muslim candidates, the BJP candidate wins easily,” he said.
Other factors for the BJP’s impressive show are its control of the state machinery and a powerful leadership in both Delhi and Lucknow, he said.
Speaking of the BSP, he added, “The BSP is literally on the verge of collapse in UP, and there are no efforts towards revival from the party. It works to defeat the SP, not the BJP. It fielded 11 Muslim candidates (out of total 17) in mayoral seats to defeat the SP.
“Its social engineering is now a thing of the past, and the BJP has marched far ahead. The party leadership is not visible on the ground and ticket distribution is happening inside Mayawati’s house.”
Mirza Asmer Beg, professor of political science, Aligarh Muslim University, said that it cannot be ruled out that the BSP’s animosity with the SP is leading to collateral damage to both the parties and is suicidal for Mayawati.
“It seems to be the BSP’s tendency to try and harm the SP. No doubt, there seems to be so much pressure on Mayawati since she is facing so many corruption cases which can always be revived. Rumours of a case reopening always circulate before an election and that’s the reason she seems to be playing the BJP’s game and helping them clandestinely,” he said.
SP spokesperson Ameeque Jamai said that the BSP resorted to the same tactics in the 2022 state election.
“The party (BSP) follows directions from Delhi (BJP headquarters). In 2022, several candidates were fielded due to which we lost by a small margin… It was the planning of the BJP and the RSS to weaken the SP in the most politically significant state of the country. But now, the SP is replacing the BSP as the choice of the backwards and Dalits too,” he claimed.
Beg said that the Opposition cadres were largely demoralised in the civic polls.
“In Aligarh, for example, if the names of voters were missing, there seemed to be little attempt by any from the Opposition party to ensure that they got help in casting their ballot. It is the responsibility of the political party workers to do that. However, the Opposition cadres seem to be demoralised and not enthused enough to take that pain,” he said.
Pandey, too, said that there was a stark difference in campaigns of the opposing sides.
“The BJP led by Yogi Adityanath campaigned aggressively and the CM toured all the areas where mayoral polls took place. It was not the case with the SP, which seemed to have sensed the results. The BSP was not visible after the ticket distribution,” he said.
When asked about the allegations of the SP about his party extending help to the BJP in a clandestine manner, BSP MLA Umashankar Singh told ThePrint that on mayoral seats like Saharanpur and Agra, the BSP candidates got the second highest votes and accused the SP of fielding candidate and helping the BJP win.
“In Saharanpur, we won over 1.46 lakh votes while the SP candidate got only 22,000 votes. BSP lost by only around 4,000 votes. Here, the SP helped the BJP by fielding its candidate. A similar scenario was in Agra. In Mau and Bhadohi nagar palika seats, where the SP sought votes by threatening the voters, our candidates won with huge margins,” he added. “In Rasara, our nagar palika chairperson candidate got 13,000 votes and won…” he said, adding that the BJP “misused the state machinery in several seats”.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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