Sawai Madhopur/Dausa/Karauli: One slogan captured the essence of public sentiment in the 2018 Rajasthan assembly elections: Modi tujhse bair nahi, Vasundhara teri khair nahi (Modi, we have no grudge against you, but Vasundhara, beware). Now, a similar slogan is gaining traction as the state readies for the 2023 polls: Gehlot tujhse bair nahi, Vidayak teri khair nahi (Gehlot, we have no grudge against you, but MLAs, beware).
Back in 2018, anti-incumbency sentiments against then-chief minister Vasundhara Raje led to the BJP’s downfall, reducing them to a mere 73 seats in the 200-member Rajasthan assembly, a big drop from their 2013 victory of 163 seats.
Today, the situation is a bit different. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s numerous welfare initiatives, including the Chiranjeevi health insurance scheme, Rs 500 gas cylinders, and electricity bill waivers, have garnered grassroots support for him. But a strong undercurrent of anti-incumbency against his MLAs is building.
Despite this, Gehlot has taken the gamble of retaining a large share of sitting MLAs for the November elections.
In its first list of 33 candidates, released last Saturday, the Congress gave tickets to 29 incumbent MLAs. Its second list of 43 candidates, which came out Sunday, included 15 sitting legislators. In the Congress’s third list of 19 candidates, out Thursday, the party retained 12 MLAs. So far, out of 30 ministers, 21 have received party tickets.
One of the epicentres of the state’s electoral battle is eastern Rajasthan, which played a key role in the Congress’s return to power in 2018.
Of the region’s 83 assembly seats in 13 districts, the Congress won 49 while the BJP secured 25 in the 2018 elections.
In just five districts here— Dausa, Sawai Madhopur, Karauli, Dholpur, and Bharatpur—the Congress won 35 out of 39 seats, making up over a third of its total tally of 100.
This arid expanse is once again the centrepiece of the Congress’s campaign, especially its demand for national status for the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) to address the region’s irrigation and drinking water issues.
However, when ThePrint visited Sawai Madhopur, Dausa, Karauli districts this week, the prevailing sentiment on the ground was clear—while Gehlot has performed satisfactorily as Chief Minister, the MLAs have failed to meet expectations.
“We are giving our vote to the BJP, not because of Modi, but because we need a change of candidate,” emphasised farmer Batti Lal Meena of Bagdi village in Dausa.
However, a senior Rajasthan Congress minister told The Print that the decision to field incumbents was a matter of political compulsion, stemming from the 2020 revolt led by former Deputy CM Sachin Pilot against Gehlot. The rebellion was quelled after many MLAs and the high command aligned with Gehlot.
“Gehlot has stuck to his commitment made during the revolt, strategically retaining sitting MLAs by promising to keep them if the government survives. Any betrayal would likely lead to unrest and rebellion,” the leader said.
“The BJP seems to be losing momentum day by day, which is why they are involving agencies like the Enforcement Directorate,” he added, referring to the central agency raiding properties of Congress state chief Govind Singh Dotasra Thursday and issuing a summons to Gehlot’s son Vaibhav. Notably, Pilot spoke out in support of both at a press conference.
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‘Gehlot is good, but not his MLAs’
When Congress MLA Danish Abrar visited his constituency Sawai Madhopur last week, he was welcomed with black flags, and some people even threw stones at his vehicle.
Yet, despite reportedly facing strong anti-incumbency and resistance even from within the party, Abrar has been chosen yet again as the Congress candidate from Sawai Madhopur.
Abrar, a trusted aide of Gehlot, was earlier part of the Rajasthan Congress’s Sachin Pilot camp.
Abrar’s switch to the other side, which helped save the Gehlot government in 2020, has irked many in the Gurjar community, to which Pilot belongs. The stone-pelters reportedly called him a “traitor”. Gurjars comprise about 9 percent of the state’s population and primarily wield influence in eastern Rajasthan.
While Gehlot has repeatedly mentioned Abrar’s contributions in his public speeches, the MLA seems to have lost popularity among not just Gurjars but also the Meena community in his constituency.
In the district’s Menpura village, a few farmers sipping tea at a small roadside stall did not mince words.
“Gehlot has done good work, but his MLA has done nothing. He hasn’t even come to a Meena village to say hello in these five years, let alone solve our problems,” claimed farmer Pyare Lal Meena.
Another farmer, Sanwar Lal Meena, nodded in agreement. “Last time, I voted for Congress candidate Danish Abrar, but this time I will vote for change. Gehlot is good, but not his MLA,” he said.
In Ajnoti, another village in Sawai Madhopur, resident Babulal Meena was just as sceptical: “Gehlot’s scheme of waiving electricity bills has benefited farmers and reduced their bills, but we won’t vote for his MLA; he only cares about his own community.”
Abrar denies such allegations. “I have worked for every community in the last five years, and I am confident that the Congress will win this seat with the support of everyone. We hope to repeat our performance of 2018 in this election,” he told ThePrint.
In Dausa district’s Lalsot assembly constituency, the incumbent MLA, state health minister, Parsadi Lal Meena, is contesting this year too.
The six-time Congress MLA has had only two defeats, in 2003 and 2013—when Kirodi Lal Meena, then contesting on a National People’s Party ticket but now in the BJP, won.
Here too, voters are inclined towards change now.
“Parsadi Lal has been winning here since 1985, but we have voted for Congress. Now we want ‘badlav’ (change),” said Batti Lal Meena of Bagdi village.
From Sawai Madhopur to Dausa, Karoli, and Dholpur, similar sentiments of anger against sitting MLAs could be a concern for Congress.
However, Rajesh Sharma, professor of Political Science at Rajasthan University, said that while anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs could jeopardise Gehlot’s prospects, many other factors were at play too.
“There is no clear momentum for either the BJP or Congress, so small factors and spoilers can swing votes in the coming days and shape the election’s outcome,” he said.
ERCP factor
Congress big guns such as Priyanka Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge have been deployed to help the Congress retain eastern Rajasthan.
The Congress is banking on the issue of the central government’s “betrayal” in not sanctioning the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) as a national project, despite Rajasthan leader Gajendra Shekhawat being the Union Water Resources Minister.
This issue is being used to polarise the community against the BJP. Chief Minister Gehlot has been raising this issue repeatedly in his meetings. Congress even planned a “matka fod” agitation in the 13 districts of Rajasthan this month to galvanise support against the BJP.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge began his Rajasthan campaign in Baran, charging the central government with forgetting its promise of funding the project, despite Rajasthan sending 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
Similarly, Priyanka Gandhi addressed a rally last week in Dausa, where she criticised Prime Minister Modi for not fulfilling his promise on ECRP.
“The central government has ignored the problems of the people of Rajasthan. There is anger among the people of Rajasthan about this breach of promise,” she said in her speech.
However, whether the ERCP issue will work in favour of Congress and lead people to vote against the BJP remains to be seen.
“It was Vasundhara who started ERCP. People will not vote for Congress due to ERCP. We are facing a water problem for agriculture, but Congress is raising it for the election. Everybody knows it. Instead, Congress should focus on minimising local anger against the MLA,” said Ram Kisan Saini in Bagdi village in Dausa.
Significantly, Sachin Pilot, who ensured Gurjar votes for Congress in the 2018 assembly election, skipped Kharge’s meeting to start the Congress campaign on ERCP in eastern Rajasthan.
BJP push in eastern Rajasthan
The BJP is going all out to regain lost ground in the eastern belt of Rajasthan.
In September, the BJP started its first “parivartan yatra” from Sawai Madhopur, with party president JP Nadda flagging it off.
Before that, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Dausa in February to inaugurate the Delhi-Dausa-Lalsot section of the Delhi-Mumbai expressway, developed at a cost of more than Rs 12,150 crore. Home Minister Amit Shah also visited Gangapur City in August to energise the cadre ahead of the polls.
A senior BJP leader in Rajasthan told ThePrint that the BJP is seeking to galvanise support from the Meena, Gurjar, Dalit, and Rajput communities in the eastern belt.
“First, the BJP fielded Kirodi Lal Meena from Sawai Madhopur to mobilise the Meena community in other seats of eastern Rajasthan,” he said.
“Secondly, since this belt is tribal-dominated, and the BJP suffered the most here, the party is banking on Gurjar support this time. Gurjar and Meena support, along with Dalits and Rajputs, can make a change for the BJP in this area. Last time, Rajputs were annoyed, but now we have placated several Rajput leaders to polarise that community in favour of the BJP,” he added.
The BJP has deployed Union minister of state Krishan Pal Gurjar and Ajaey Kumar, general secretary of organisation from Uttrakhand, to lead the charge in the region and regain the party’s lost space.
Mukesh Dadhich, Rajasthan state vice president, said that the party was highlighting the Modi government’s achievements in the region.
“Due to the backwardness of the region, there are problems of unemployment, crime against women, and a lack of industry,” he said. The BJP is showcasing Modi’s development track record to the people and promising that once the BJP comes to power, the ERCP will become a reality, and security will be on par with other BJP-ruled states.”
(Edited by Asavari Singh)
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