Exit polls say Chandrababu Naidu could win state battle but lose out on national ambitions

Majority of exit polls suggest Naidu's TDP will win a majority in Andhra Pradesh assembly but will lose to Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress in the general elections.

TDP chief N. Chandrababu Naidu | Getty Images

Bengaluru: The exit polls have been bittersweet for Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu. A majority of exit polls have predicted that Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) will retain the state but the chief minister’s ambitions to play kingmaker at the centre have been given a reality check.

At least two surveys have indicated the Naidu may continue as the chief minister. A survey conducted by former Congress MP Lagadapati Rajagopal has predicted that the TDP could bag 90 to 110 seats in the 175-member Andhra assembly while giving 65 to 79 seats to his rival, the Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress.

Another survey, the RG Flash survey, has predicted 90-110 for Naidu’s TDP, with Jagan’s YSRCP expected to get 65-79 and the others to be left with one to five seats.

The India Today-Axis Poll, however, has predicted the complete opposite scenario, showing 130-135 seats for the YSRCP and 37-40 seats for TDP, with the others to get just one seat.

Naidu’s numbers for the general elections, however, aren’t flattering.

NDTV’s Poll of Polls predicts that Jagan’s YSR Congress will bag 16 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state while Naidu’s TDP will get remaining nine seats.

Last-minute change

Pollsters say that if Naidu retains his position as the chief minister, it would mean that he has managed to deliver the goods at the last minute. Fighting anti-incumbency, the chief minister had to contend with major grouses that he did not effectively deliver on the farmer loan package and on his promise to get a special package for the newly-formed Andhra Pradesh.

Naidu had announced a slew of welfare packages at the start of the year, which included schemes for farmers, unemployed youth, women and self-help groups. His government spent close to Rs 15,000 crore and this may be one of the major contributory factors if Naidu gets an edge.

But some analysts feel that the poll may have overstated Naidu’s prospects in the state.

“One can expect Jagan to do very well in the assembly than the general election. It is very much on the cards that he will do very well,” says the Hyderabad-based political analyst Palwai Raghavendra Reddy.

“While Naidu did try to create an aura around the special package for AP and his reason to leave the BJP, but he has failed miserably on farm loans and on developing Amaravati. He has tough competition in neighbouring Telangana where KCR has delivered very well on his promises.”

Jagan is so confident of sweeping the polls that he has already shifted base to Amaravati, the capital. It is also a make-or-break election for Jagan, who launched the YSRCP in 2011.

“We should comfortably get between 110 to 120 seats in the assembly elections,” said a YSRCP leader who did not want to be named.