Mumbai: Despite the Congress having made inroads into Gujarat during the 2017 assembly election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on track to repeat its 2014 record performance of sweeping the entire state.
According to early trends until 10 am, the Congress is making gains in just one constituency, Dahod in central Gujarat. The BJP is leading in 25 of Gujarat’s 26 seats.
The Congress had got some momentum going in its favour during the assembly elections in December 2017 due to a movement for reservation by the Patidar community, agitations over atrocities against Dalits and farm distress. As a result, it had managed to reduce the BJP’s tally to double digits — 99 seats in the 182-member assembly. But while the Congress seems to have lost that momentum, the BJP seems to have assiduously recovered lost ground.
According to the NDTV Poll of Polls, which calculated the average of all exit polls, the BJP was projected to win 23 seats, while the Congress was likely to reclaim at least some space with three seats.
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Gujarat’s importance to the BJP
In 2014, the BJP had swept all 26 seats, a sharp increase from 15 seats in 2009, erasing the Congress’ parliamentary footprint in Gujarat.
For the BJP, Gujarat is prestigious, being Modi’s home turf, and the party is hoping for a repeat of its 2014 performance to show that the ‘Modi factor’ still works as strongly as it did five years ago. Moreover, BJP president Amit Shah is also contesting from the state capital, Gandhinagar, a constituency once won by senior BJP leaders such as Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani.
In the assembly elections, the BJP fell below the 100-seat mark for the first time in two decades, while the Congress improved its tally to 77 from 57 seats. The party has especially pinned its hopes on the constituencies in Saurashtra and north Gujarat, which powered the party’s victory in 52 of its 77 seats in the Gujarat assembly polls.
Issues different to 2017
There has been discontent among a section of voters due to farm distress and a lack of jobs for the local youth, some of which contributed to the BJP’s slip in the assembly election. However, there is also a strong section of voters loyal to PM Modi and the BJP’s stand on issues such as nationalism and national security.
Another major factor that fuelled the Congress’ gains in the assembly election was the discontent among the Patidars over their demand for reservation. The issue, however, is not as strong in this election with the Modi government’s 10 per cent economically weaker section quota having soothed the Patidars to some extent.
Moreover, three caste leaders who did significant damage to the BJP with their campaigns — Patidar leader Hardik Patel, OBC leader Alpesh Thakor and Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani — have a reduced influence on the ground compared to 2017. While Patel joined the Congress and campaigned for it, Thakor quit the party, while Mevani has campaigned more outside Gujarat.
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