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CM Baghel eyes Jogi fortress Marwahi, but ‘Target 70’ not likely to be easy one for Congress

The Dalit and tribal-dominated seat has been with former CM Ajit Jogi & his family for 5 consecutive terms. A bypoll, necessitated after his death in May, is due.

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Raipur: For five consecutive terms, the family of former Chhattisgarh chief minister Ajit Jogi has held the Marwahi assembly constituency. But with his death in May, the ruling Congress is now eyeing this seat. 

While bypolls for the segment are yet to be announced, Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel has already termed it as his ‘Target 70’.  Party leaders believe the chief minister’s recent statement that the Congress will surely win the Marwahi by-election reveals his intent.

For one, a win from this seat will allow Baghel to consolidate his position in the party and increase his ‘bargaining power’ with the high command.   

Ever since he was plucked as an unknown and handed Chhattisgarh, Baghel has been strengthening his position in the party. While the Congress won 67 out of the 90 seats in the 2018 assembly elections, it managed to wrest two more seats in the byelections at Chitrakoot and Jagdalpur, taking the tally to 69. 

The Congress has also won all local body elections in the last 18 months.

A former party spokesperson and MLA told ThePrint that there is another reason for the chief minister’s determination to win the seat — Baghel was one of Ajit Jogi’s biggest detractors when the latter was with the Congress.  

“Baghel is considered a great detractor of the Jogi family,” the former spokesperson said. “If the Congress loses the election, it will also be a personal defeat for the chief minister, and his opponents in the organisation will become more vocal. This is the reason why the CM has given the slogan ‘Target 70’ to his supporters for the Marwahi by-election.” 

State Congress spokesperson Dhananjay Thakur said he believes the Congress is in prime position to win the seat. “Even though the Marwahi assembly seat has always been with Ajit Jogi and his family, the voters here traditionally belong to the Congress party,” Thakur said. “Ajit Jogi used to be identified with the Congress party.”

“Even in 2018, Jogi’s victory was due to his Congress background,” Thakur added. “Now, under the leadership of CM Bhapesh Baghel, the party has started its preparations for the upcoming by-election and Congress’s victory is certain. Target 70 will definitely be met.” 


Also read: Chhattisgarh probe finds doctors & Covid warriors negligent, account for 9% of cases


The personal battle

It is well known in Chhattisgarh’s political circles that Baghel and Jogi were not always on the best terms. Baghel’s supporters in the Congress also believe that his continuous opposition to Ajit Jogi and the party’s landslide victory in the 2018 Legislative Assembly elections after Jogi’s ouster from the Congress, had made his chief ministerial claims even stronger.

“Bhupesh Baghel always used to say that Congress remained out of power for 15 years in Chhattisgarh only due to the collusion between Jogi and former BJP CM Raman Singh,” said a senior Congress leader, who did not wish to be named.  

Baghel’s accusations were vindicated to a large extent by the Congress’ victory in the 2018 assembly elections. After sitting in the opposition benches for nearly 15 years, the party contested the assembly election for the first time without Jogi and won by a landslide majority of 67 seats in the 90-seat Assembly. 

“In this direction, there won’t be a bigger opportunity for Baghel to prove his allegations in an even stronger way by winning the Marwahi bypolls,” the Congress leader added. “That is why Baghel has already started preparations for this all-important assembly byelection. He has personally connected with the party workers of Marwahi and is giving directions to them.” 

But the chief minister has his work cut out. 

Apart from the personal hold of the Jogi family, Baghel will have to contend with some in-house threats. There is a large section of party workers and leaders who are upset having been ignored in the Bhupesh Baghel government.

“There is a large faction of leaders who are upset with the Chief Minister and that could come into play,” said a second Congress leader. “Some of these leaders are waiting for appointments to be made in state’s institutions like boards, corporations, councils etc. If they fail to get a suitable appointment in any of these bodies, sabotage in Marwahi by-election is certain.” 

Thakur, however, disagreed. “All party workers and leaders are unanimous under the leadership of Bhupesh Baghel. Its result will be reflected in the election” he said. 


Also read: Congress is deceiving families of its leaders killed in 2013 Naxal attack: Chhattisgarh BJP


The Jogi bastion

The biggest challenge for the chief minister, however, will come from the Jogi family itself.  

The Marwahi assembly constituency with about 2 lakh registered voters is a tribal and Dalit-dominated seat reserved for a Scheduled Tribe candidate. Five elections have taken place in Marwahi since the formation of Chhattisgarh state, and Ajit Jogi or one of his family members won every time. 

In 2000, after becoming chief minister, Jogi engineered the defection of the then BJP MLA Ramdayal Uike and entered the assembly after winning the by-election at Marwahi in 2001. At that time, an interim Congress government was formed in Chhattisgarh after it was separated from Madhya Pradesh.

After this, Jogi won from Marwahi in Chhattisgarh’s first assembly elections in 2003 and again in the second assembly elections in 2008 as a Congress candidate. In 2013, Jogi fielded his son Amit Jogi from Marwahi on a Congress ticket and he too. 

After Jogi’s expulsion from the Congress in 2016, he formed the Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) and contested the 2018 elections as a JCC candidate. He retained the seat.

Speaking to ThePrint, JCC MLA Dharamjit Singh said that Amit Jogi will be the party’s candidate. “The party’s official candidate in Marwahi bypolls will be Amit Jogi,” he said. “In the Marwahi assembly, the Jogi family continues to live in the hearts and minds of the voters even today. Even in 2018, when the Congress won 67 seats in the state, Jogi’s grip on Marwahi remained intact. Results in the upcoming by-election will be the same as of 2018.” 

Political experts of the state also believe that the family still retains its hold in Marwahi. “The Jogi family’s clout in this assembly segment can be gauged from the fact that they have retained it in the last five elections. The main reason behind this was late Ajit Jogi’s own political stature and his hold in the local public,” senior journalist Uchit Sharma said. “But it will be for the first time that the family will be contesting any election in Marwahi without Ajit Jogi, which can be advantageous for Baghel. Congress has its old roots there but the ruling party will have to work very hard.” 

There is also speculation that the BJP may aid the JCC by fielding an unknown face but party spokesperson Sachchidananda Upasane said it had no such plans. “The BJP will contest the election to defeat both Congress and Bhupesh Baghel and not in order to help anyone,” Upasane said. “We are fully aware of the ongoing tussle between the Jogi family and the Congress, but it is BJP that is going to win the Marwahi byelection and the whole country will see it.”


Also read: Chhattisgarh opposes Modi govt on coal block auction, says move to hit elephant reserve plan


 

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