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HomePoliticsBSP, AIMIM, RLSP's new front in Bihar is eyeing Dalit-Muslim votes, could...

BSP, AIMIM, RLSP’s new front in Bihar is eyeing Dalit-Muslim votes, could dent JD(U)

The BSP and AIMIM leaders say the idea behind the alliance is to converge the Dalit and Muslim votes, and present a 'solidarity of the marginalised'.

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New Delhi: Aiming to capture a lion’s share of the Muslim and Dalit votes, Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Upendra Khushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) have joined hands for the upcoming Bihar election.

The AIMIM, BSP and RLSP Thursday announced their joint alliance — the Grand Democratic Secular Front — which will also include two other parties, the Jantantrik Party and Samajwadi Janata Dal Democratic.

The BSP and AIMIM leaders said the idea behind the alliance is to converge the Dalit and Muslim votes, and present a “solidarity of the marginalised”.

“Dalits and Muslims are the two most marginalised sections of society. We are hoping to solicit support from all marginalised sections, and for the alliance to become the choice of all secular people in the state too,” Sudhindra Bhadoria, BSP leader and spokesperson told ThePrint.

AIMIM has, in the past, too, spoken about forging a ‘Dalit-Muslim’ solidarity. During the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the AIMIM allied with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) in Maharashtra. The alliance, however, broke off after the poor performance in the polls, and the two parties contested separately in the subsequent state elections.

Competing with other parties for Dalit-Muslim votes

The BSP and AIMIM will try to capture the votes of Dalit and Muslim community, who constitute about 16 per cent population of the state.

However, this will not be an easy task, because the other parties — most significantly the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) — will also be competing for the votes of the two communities.

“The BSP has no base in Bihar, a state where Dalit politics has been weak. Even the LJP could not emerge as a Dalit party, despite the efforts of (Ram Vilas) Paswan, and was limited to Paswans who comprise around 6 per cent of the electorate. The Third Front might have been viable if the LJP joined it, but in its absence, it will find it difficult to play a significant role, beyond being a possible spoiler for the RJD in a few seats,” Asim Ali, research associate at Centre for Policy and Research said.

Ali also said that the BSP and AIMIM lack the base in Bihar to transfer their votes to the RLSP, the largest party in the alliance.

“Moreover, Muslim voters specifically, will be cautious of leaving the RJD alliance and vote for the RLSP, which has been riven with defections over the last few years, and whose MLAs can likely shift to the NDA in case of a split verdict,” Ali added.

Drubbing in 2015 assembly polls

Both the BSP and AIMIM faced a massive drubbing in the 2015 Bihar assembly elections, and they do not enjoy a significant following in the state. The BSP contested independently on all 243 seats, but could not win any of them. The AIMIM, which contested on just six seats, also did not win even on one. The AIMIM got only 0.2 per cent of the total votes polled, while the BSP’s vote share was marginally better at two per cent.

The AIMIM, however, was able to register a surprising victory in the October 2019 by-polls in the state, where its candidate Qamrul Hoda won the Kishanganj seat by over 10,000 votes.

The RLSP, which is now the leading member of this alliance, was a member of the BJP-led NDA during the 2015 polls, and it won two of the 23 seats.

The Grand Democratic Secular Front has already announced Kushwaha as their CM face.


Also read: Not just Tejashwi Yadav & Chirag Paswan, Bihar polls make-or-break for other dynasts too


Alliance could work in favour of opposition

Although it is expected that the alliance may eat into the votes of the RJD, analysts say there is also a possibility that it may end up benefiting the Opposition by cutting into the vote bank of the JD(U).

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led JD(U), too, has been trying to woo the Dalit votebank in the state.

“JD(U) enjoys the appeal of a section of Dalits in Bihar. So if the BSP is able to cut into these votes, then the RJD-led alliance will be a direct beneficiary,” Badri Narayan, political analyst told ThePrint.

Narayan added that all of this will be contingent on how strategically the BSP and AIMIM field their candidates, and in which regions.

“If AIMIM fields a candidate from the Chamar caste, then their candidate might get the votes from the community. But if they field a Muslim candidate, then Dalits might not vote for them in that seat. So it is all about how strategically they give out the tickets,” Narayan said.

Sources in alliance said that while the BSP is likely to field candidates in the Dalit-populated pockets of Bihar bordering with UP, AIMIM will contest on seats in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region of the state.


Also read: Bihar Congress wants Rahul & Priyanka Gandhi to hold 9 rallies, will make Hathras poll issue


 

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6 COMMENTS

  1. Assumption that the alliance of AMIMI and RLSP will dent only JDU is completely erroneous on the contrary it definetly reduce the tally of RJD+ eventually helping BJP.

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