New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) might have won the recently-concluded assembly elections in Assam and increased its seat count in West Bengal, but this is not enough for the ruling party to increase its strength in the Rajya Sabha, where it continues to be in minority.
Parliament sources told ThePrint that the way numbers are stacked up, the BJP is likely to increase its tally in the Rajya Sabha by just two or three seats, from the current 93 MPs, in 2022, when biennial elections to 74 seats are held.
The party is also unlikely to get a majority in the Upper House of Parliament even by 2024, when the Modi government’s second term in office ends.
Not only this, any setback in the assembly elections due next year in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh is also going to hit the ruling party’s position in the Upper House.
The BJP is in power in the three of these states — Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. There are fears it won’t fare well in UP this time, where local leaders have told ThePrint that the public mood is against the party at present because of the way it has handled the Covid-19 situation.
The BJP has 93 MPs in the Rajya Sabha, which has a total strength of 245. The halfway mark for a majority is 123.
Sources, however, added that for all practical purposes like getting important bills passed in the Rajya Sabha, BJP’s minority status is not going to be a hindrance.
“BJP along with its allies will still manage to get important legislations passed like it has done since 2014, despite not being in majority in the Rajya Sabha,” a BJP Rajya Sabha MP told ThePrint on condition of anonymity.
The Rajya Sabha enjoys almost the same powers as Lok Sabha except for the fact that money bills cannot be introduced in the Upper House. Any other cannot become a law unless passed by the Rajya Sabha as well.
RS elections for 74 seats in 2022 but BJP not set for gains
Next year is not going to be any better for BJP as far as improving its Rajya Sabha numbers is concerned.
“Biennial elections to 74 Rajya Sabha seats are due next year after the present term of these MPs end. But it’s unlikely that BJP’s tally is going to improve much from its present position,” said a parliament official, who did not want to be named.
One of the reasons for this is the fact that the BJP could lose Rajya Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
Elections are due next year to four Rajya Sabha seats each in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan and two seats in Chhattisgarh.
Of the four seats in Andhra Pradesh, three are with the BJP (after a TDP MP joined the BJP in 2019) and one is with the YSR Congress.
“But with the YSR Congress Party winning 151 of the 175 seats in the 2019 assembly elections, the party will win the three RS seats easily,” a second parliamentary official said. “The party that is in majority gets to send the maximum number of MPs to the Upper House.”
In Rajasthan’s case, there are 10 RS seats of which the Congress has three and the BJP seven. “Election to four RS seats will take place next year. The Congress is likely to improve its tally,” the second official added.
In Chhattisgarh too, where the Congress is in power, election to three RS seats will be held in June 2022 and April 2024, respectively. At present, of the five RS seats, three are held by the Congress and two by the BJP.
Unlike in the Lok Sabha, where MPs are elected directly by voters, Rajya Sabha members are elected indirectly by MLAs of respective states. The formula for electing a Rajya Sabha member is: total number of MLAs of the state, divided by the number of seats going to poll in the state plus 1, and then +1 to this total.
In all, between now and April 2024, as many as 143 Rajya Sabha seats will be up for grabs. But, parliament sources said, the prospects of the BJP increasing its present tally are limited.
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Recent elections will help opposition
The recent assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will hardly have any impact on the BJP’s RS numbers, barring Assam where elections to two RS seats will be held in 2022. The BJP could win at least one of the seats.
The polls, however, will help the opposition shore up its numbers in the Upper House.
In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the BJP hardly has any presence. But in Tamil Nadu, with its poll ally, the AIADMK, winning just 66 seats, the party will not be able to hold onto its Rajya Sabha seats.
Elections to five RS seats will be held next year. Of the five, the AIADMK holds three and the DMK two.
In West Bengal too, with Trinamool winning 213 of the 292 seats, a majority of the 10 RS seats for which elections will be held in 2023 and 2024 will go to the Trinamool Congress.
However, with the BJP increasing its tally in the West Bengal assembly to 77 seats, the party might finally get to elect its first Rajya Sabha MP in 2023.
(Edited by Arun Prashanth)
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