Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiv Sena alliance has taken a lead in Maharashtra with gains in about 132 of the state’s 288 constituencies.
Early trends up to 9.30 am show the BJP is leading in 85 seats, significantly in Nagpur South West from where CM Devendra Fadnavis contested, while the Shiv Sena is leading in 47 seats such as Worli from where Thackeray scion Aaditya Thackeray contested. The BJP and its smaller allies contested 164 of the 288 seats, while the Shiv Sena contested 124 seats, according to their seat-sharing arrangement.
Meanwhile, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are ahead of the ruling alliance in seven seats, with the former making gains in 35 and the latter in 41. The Congress contested 146 seats, the NCP 117.
The counting of votes started at 8 am.
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While this election is a battle between the two main alliances in Maharashtra, the 2014 assembly poll was a four-cornered fight with the BJP, Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP all contesting separately. The BJP had won 122 seats, Shiv Sena 63, while the Congress and the NCP, which ruled the state for three consecutive terms before 2014, were decimated with 42 and 41 seats, respectively.
This time too, exit polls have shown a clear lead for the ruling alliance though there’s a wide variation in figures. According to NDTV’s ‘Poll of Exit Polls’, an average of all exit polls, the BJP and the Shiv Sena are likely to record a victory stronger than in 2014, winning 211 of the 288 seats, while the Congress-NCP tally is likely to be reduced to 64. Smaller players and independents may account for the 13 remaining seats.
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Results to decide future equation of BJP-Sena
The BJP’s performance will be keenly watched this election with some ambitious estimates by party leaders pegging its tally at 140-150. A simple majority of 145 seats is needed to form the government in the 288-member assembly. If the BJP does cross this figure on its own, it will reduce the Sena’s relevance and dominance within the government.
Like the BJP, political observers have their eyes on the Sena’s final tally too, with the party having accepted a smaller share of seats than the BJP in its poll pact with the party, recognising the former’s popularity in the state.
The Shiv Sena is hoping to piggyback on the current BJP wave and boost its tally. The number of seats that it wins, and its vote share, will not only determine how much say it might have in a government with the BJP, but also provide a glimpse of how dominant it remains as Maharashtra’s regional party.
The party, which has fielded Aaditya Thackeray as the first member of its ruling family to contest an election, has also been eyeing the CM’s post, but didn’t aggressively push for it during campaigning. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has said he is open to considering creating a deputy CM’s post for the Sena.
Other factors to watch out for in Thursday’s results will be the ruling alliance’s performance in parts of the Vidarbha and Marathwada region, where farm distress is still at its peak, as well as the Sangli and Kolhapur districts of western Maharashtra, where the government was alleged to have botched up flood relief operations just two months ago. The two constituencies have recorded some of the highest voter turnout figures this election.
NCP’s relevance in Maharashtra and health of opposition parties
The campaigning in the run-up to the assembly election was one-sided and lacklustre with the BJP pumping in much more resources than the opposition, a lack of a clear leadership in the Congress camp, and a perception of a ruling alliance sweep after the Congress-NCP’s dismal show in the Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP and Shiv Sena further weakened opposition parties by poaching high profile leaders, especially from the NCP, and fielding several of them to create inroads in constituencies held by the two main opposition parties.
However, while political analysts have predicted a win for the ruling alliance, they have also cautioned about some resentment on the ground over the incumbent government’s performance, especially on issues such as unemployment and farm distress.
In this backdrop, it will be interesting to see if Congress and NCP manage to hold on to the seats and vote share, or slide further in Maharashtra’s political landscape.
Further, this election is especially a ‘do or die’ battle, and an egotistical one at that, for NCP president Sharad Pawar who practically carried the opposition’s campaign on his shoulders, addressing almost 60 rallies at the age of 78.
The NCP’s result will indicate if the Pawar magic is still alive in Maharashtra and if the party, despite losing over a dozen senior leaders, is able to retain its sway over the western Maharashtra and Marathwada regions even in the face of a BJP wave.
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