BJP gets a solid foothold in Odisha but Naveen Patnaik retains state

BJD is leading in 113 of Odisha's 146 assembly seats and 13 of the state's 21 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP leads in 8 parliamentary constituencies.

File imge of Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. | PTI

New Delhi: Without breaking from tradition, Odisha has once again voted for the same party in the assembly as well as the Lok Sabha elections held simultaneously. But the BJP has made solid inroads in the eastern state, leading in eight of Odisha’s 21 Lok Sabha seats.

Four-term chief minister Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal continues to be popular, and has again managed to buck anti-incumbency. At 8:30 pm, the party was leading in 113 of the 146 assembly seats.

However, in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJD’s dominance faced a serious challenge from the BJP, with the ruling party leading in 13 seats — down from the 20 it won in 2014.

The BJP was also leading in 21 assembly seats, up from 10 in the last elections, while the Congress has been reduced to a marginal player, leading in only 9 assembly seats.

In 2014, the BJD had won 117 seats in the assembly. At the time, the Congress had won 16 assembly seats, but could not open its account in the Lok Sabha elections.

It was a similar story in 2009, when the BJD and BJP fought separately for the first time after breaking their alliance in 2008. While the BJD bagged 103 assembly and 14 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP won just six assembly seats, failing to open its account in the Lok Sabha elections.

“There has not been much of a change in the BJD’s status. It can form the government on its own in the state. What has changed, though, is that the BJP has replaced the Congress and become the main opposition party,” said Odisha-based historian Pritish Acharya.

“Unlike in the past there will be more direct confrontation between the BJD and the BJP.”

Expanding footprint

The ruling party at the Centre began its push in the eastern state soon after the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came to power in 2014.

Two cabinet portfolios were given to leaders from the state. While Jual Oram, the sole BJP leader to win a parliamentary seat from Odisha, was made tribal affairs minister, Dharmendra Pradhan was made Rajya Sabha MP and given the important portfolio of petroleum.

BJP’s Odisha focus paid off when in 2017 when the party won 306 of the 853 zila parishad seats in the local body elections. The BJD’s number in the same election came down to 460 from 651 seats in 2012.

The local body elections saw aggressive campaigning by both the BJD and the BJP. Besides Pradhan, BJP roped in then-chief ministers Raman Singh from Chhattisgarh and Raghubar Das from Jharkhand to canvass in the elections.

Buoyed by the success in the state’s local body elections, BJP held its national executive meet in Bhubaneswar in 2017.

How this election panned out

In the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP designed its campaign around the personality cult of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, making it a Modi vs Patnaik contest from day one.

The BJP made national security and India’s airstrikes in Pakistan’s Balakot to avenge the killing of 40 soldiers in Pulwama its main poll pitch. Modi addressed 10 campaign rallies in the state while party chief Amit Shah held six rallies.

The party also lured many disgruntled BJD MPs and MLAs to its fold, including Baijyant ‘Jay’ Panda. He, however, is trailing behind BJD’s Anubhav Mohanty from Kendrapada who is leading by over 33,000 votes.

“BJP’s success in Odisha has mainly been on count of Modi. It was a vote in favour of Modi. The party does not have a strong organisational structure in the state but the party’s performance will be a big boost and will make them hopeful for future,” said professor R.K. Satapathy of North-Eastern Hill University.

Patnaik’s campaign

Feeling the heat from the BJP, Patnaik reworked his party strategy ahead of the elections by not repeating 17 out of its 20 sitting MPs.

Refuting rumours of his ill health, Patnaik criss-crossed the state, attending approximately 100 rallies. For the first time, the CM also contested from two assembly seats — Hinjili, from where he contested on the last four occasions, and Bijepur in western Odisha. BJP is considered to be strong in western Odisha, from where it won one seat (Sundergarh) in 2014.

Thanks to a plethora of schemes launched for the poor during his tenure, including the recent KALIA scheme for farmers, Patnaik has so far been successful in bucking the anti-incumbency factor in the state.

However, political analysts said that after the 2019 results, BJD can no longer afford to carry on with its policy of remaining “equidistant” from both the BJP and Congress.

“This policy can’t work now. The BJP is the BJD’s main opponent now in Odisha, and it has to make its stand very clear. In the past, BJD has supported some of the controversial decisions of the BJP at the Centre like the GST and voting for the NDA’s presidential candidate in 2017,” said Acharya.