As Rajapaksa, the man India helped oust in 2015 becomes Sri Lanka PM, New Delhi watches and waits

Image of Mahinda Rajapaksa | Commons

President Sirisena does his old political enemy Rajapaksa a favour by not letting the ousted PM prove his majority in Parliament.

New Delhi: As the political crisis in the paradise island of Sri Lanka deepened Saturday, with ousted Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe refusing to accept his removal by President Maithripala Sirisena and the newly installed Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa sat tight, India refused to comment on the fast-paced developments.

Late this morning, Wickramasinghe asked the Speaker to convene an extraordinary session of Parliament, well aware that he could win a showdown on the floor of the House with his 106 MPs. The brand new coalition between Sirisena and Rajapaksa amounts to less than 100 MPs.

But within minutes of Parliament being convened, Sirisena did a favour to his former political enemy, Rajapaksa, by proroguing the House until 16 November, thereby not letting Wickramasinghe prove his majority.

This allows Rajapaksa to play the political game over the next few weeks. It means that Wickramasinghe will fulminate, while his supporters, such as confidante and powerful finance and media minister Mangala Samaraweera, call it an “anti-democratic coup.” The appointment of Rajapaksa as PM is “unconstitutional and illegal,” Samaraweera tweeted.

India adopts ‘wait and watch’ policy

As former political enemies embrace each other and evict newer friends from the charmed circle in Sri Lanka, India watches quietly, waiting to see how the chips will fall.

Cut to March 2015, soon after Mahinda Rajapaksa was defeated in the presidential polls by a former member of his cabinet, Maithripala Sirisena. In an interview to the South China Morning Post, on the eve of prime minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka, Rajapaksa had said, “It was very open, Americans, Norwegians, Europeans, were openly working against me. And RAW,” he said, referring to India’s external intelligence wing.

Speculation had indeed been rife at the time, in Colombo and in Delhi, that RAW had helped oust Rajapaksa from the presidentship and install Sirisena. The latter was shy and reserved, the opposite of the bombastic Rajapaksa, who didn’t hesitate to offer the Chinese the Hambantota port in his home constituency in the south along with an airport in nearby Mattala.

Rajapaksa has since said that India was first offered Hambantota port and Delhi turned it down — for good reason, Indian diplomats say. Rajapaksa went on to promote his country’s friendship with China, by allowing its submarines to dock, letting it expand the Colombo port and build a housing society right next to it — a stone’s throw from Temple Trees, the eponymous residence of the Sri Lankan president.

Delhi watched with growing concern as China expanded its sphere of influence into the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

Besides, Rajapaksa had consistently refused to devolve more powers to Sri Lanka’s Tamil population in the North & East. He was perceived to be antagonistic to his own Tamil population, sometimes even accusing them of siding with the LTTE in the 23-year-long civil war that rent the country, before it ended in 2009. Accused of human rights violations and even war crimes, Rajapaksa shrugged off the charges as collateral damage.

In fact, the Manmohan Singh government had held its nose at the time and staved off mounting international human rights criticism against Rajapaksa — Prabhakaran’s young teenaged son had been killed, along with the LTTE leader, and the photo was broadcast all over the world to much dismay.

Wheel turns full circle

With the overnight swearing-in of Rajapaksa as prime minister under Sirisena’s watch in Colombo on Thursday night, the wheel in Sri Lanka hasn’t turned full circle yet. Rumour is that the prime minister wants to become president again, although as BJP leader Subramanian Swamy told ThePrint, “Rajapaksa’s colleagues have told him that the position of the prime minister in Sri Lanka is almost as powerful as the prime minister in India, after recent constitutional amendments.”

Swamy also said that Rajapaksa’s return to power had been in the making for some time. “When I visited him in his home-town at the end of August to condole the death of his brother and invite him to Delhi, there was already a talk of Rajapaksa becoming prime minister. It was already in the works, although he appeared to be reluctant,” he said.

Seems, Swamy added, that Rajapaksa still preferred the presidency, because of the immense power that came with it.

But Rajapaksa knew that he could not be president again — a recent Constitutional amendment had imposed a two-term limit and he had exhausted that. If he wanted to return to power, he would have to be prime minister. The possibility of changing the Constitution again and removing the limits to the presidential chair hung in the air.

In any case, Rajapaksa arrived to a red carpet welcome in Delhi on 12 September, for a visit organised by Swamy, during which he delivered a public lecture, met PM Modi and was feted at a private dinner where he met several BJP leaders and former diplomats and friends of Sri Lanka.

“He realised that Indians had fundamentally no objections to him. ‘I never expected this’, he told me,” Swamy told ThePrint, pointing out that there had been all kinds of rumours on the eve of Rajapaksa’s visit “about Tamil Nadu going up in flames”.

Certainly, Sirisena’s overnight embrace of Rajapaksa is surprising. A Sri Lankan analyst who spoke on the condition of anonymity told ThePrint that, “the economy was deteriorating and people were not happy with the National Unity Government (of Sirisena and Wickramasinghe).

During the local body polls held in February, Rajapaksa’s party did very well. Perhaps Sirisena thought that it was better for him to ally with his former political enemy than with an increasingly unpopular Wickramasinghe,” he said.

Sirisena alleged ‘RAW plot’ to kill him

The increasing tension between Sirisena and Wickramasinghe in recent months has been an open secret in Sri Lanka. When Sirisena recently alleged that a “RAW plot” was involved in a bid to assassinate him, his supporters also claimed that “Ranil Wickramasinghe and his party did not protest too much,” the Sri Lankan analyst said.

In fact, in the middle of Wickramasinghe’s visit to Delhi last week, Sirisena’s ports & shipping minister Mahinda Samarasinghe told journalists that Sri Lanka would not hand over the Eastern Colombo Port Terminal (ECT) to India, causing Wickramasinghe severe embarrassment and Delhi considerable irritation.

Delhi had brought in Japan when it bid for the port terminal and discussions are said to be in an advanced stage. The project is said to cost more than $500 million.

At a 16 October Cabinet meeting at which the Colombo Port came up, according to Sri Lankan weekly Sunday Times, Sirisena said, “I am not going to give it to any outside party,” and “we cannot give our domestic assets to outsiders.”

According to the paper, he had told Modi this when he met him at the August BIMSTEC summit in Kathmandu.

In fact, Sirisena had asked Wickramasinghe to step down from his post as PM after the local bodies poll rout in February. In April, too the PM had survived a no-confidence scare. Analysts say the only way Sirisena felt he could remain president – and run again when presidential polls are held a year from now – was by shedding Wickramasinghe.

Bringing back his old political enemy, Mahinda Rajapaksa, into the fold was better than keeping him outside. In any case, Sirisena realised that Rajapaksa could not run for president again because of the two-term limit he faced. For the moment, at least, he felt he was safe.

Fast forward to 16 November, when the next turn in Sri Lanka’s complicated politics takes place, when Parliament reconvenes. The triangle of power has until then to assert itself. Meanwhile, India watches and waits, and sees who wins the sweepstakes.