Ranchi: Ask any Jharkhand Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader, strategist or candidate about the party’s Lok Sabha prospects and the answer is identical: ‘We will win all the 14 seats’. The common emphasis is also on “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” — the party will cross the 400-seat mark this time. But despite their assertions, the challenge to get the better of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led front in the state’s five seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) looks daunting.
The fact also remains that the BJP was never able to bag all 14 Lok Sabha seats in the region even before the creation of Jharkhand. It could also not do so during the Modi waves in the two previous general elections, winning 12 in 2014 and 11 in 2019.
Among the reasons for this is the strong influence that ‘satraps’ of Jharkhand-centric parties command in these seats and tribal areas.
Of Jharkhand’s 14 Lok Sabha seats, five are reserved for STs, namely Singhbhum, Khunti, Lohardaga, Dumka and Rajmahal. While the first three will go to the polls in the fourth phase on 13 May, polling in the other two is to be held in the seventh phase on 1 June.
Of these five, three were won by the BJP and one each by the Congress and JMM in 2019. This time, the JMM will contest on three and the Congress on the remaining two seats.
Besides these five, tribal votes have been known to sway the outcome in at least three of the state’s general (unreserved) seats. According to estimates, tribals accounted for 26.2 percent of the state’s overall population in 2011.
Of the five seats reserved for STs, Dumka and Rajmahal are part of Santhal Pargana, while Singhbhum falls under Kolhan, and Khunti, Lohardaga under North Chotanagpur commissionerate. Santali tribals are a decisive factor in Santhal Pargana. At the same time, Ho tribes have influence in Kolhan and Munda and Oraon tribes in North Chotanagpur.
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Singhbhum, Khunti & Lohardaga
Geeta Koda, the wife of former Jharkhand chief minister Madhu Koda, had won the Singhbhum seat for the Congress in 2019. Having joined the BJP in February this year, she is now the BJP candidate from this seat. Her husband Madhu Koda won this seat in 2009.
On Tuesday, the JMM announced its decision to field five-term MLA Joba Majhi, also a former minister from Singhbhum.
Of the six assembly segments within Singhbhum parliamentary constituency, five are held by JMM and one by the Congress. This includes the Saraikela seat held by CM Champai Soren.
Another battle is brewing in Khunti, the seat Union minister and former Jharkhand chief minister Arjun Munda won in 2019 by defeating Kali Charan Munda of the Congress by a margin of 1,445 voters. This time, Khunti is set to witness a rematch between the two.
खूंटी लोकसभा अंतर्गत तमाड़ विधानसभा के देगाडीह में ग्रामीणों से संवाद किया।सभी से कहा कि 13 मई को कमल का बटन दबाकर फिर से मोदी जी को प्रधानमंत्री बनाइये।#हमारासंकल्प_विकसितभारत_विकसितखूंटी #अपने_खूंटी_के_लिए#फिर_एक_बार_मोदी_सरकार#अबकी_बार_400पार#लोकसभाचुनाव2024 pic.twitter.com/wUt04DVMSp
— Arjun Munda(मोदी का परिवार) (@MundaArjun) April 10, 2024
Lohardaga, the third and final reserved seat for tribals in Jharkhand to go to the polls in the fourth phase, was won by BJP’s Sudarshan Bhagat in the previous election. He had defeated Congress’s Sukhdeo Bhagat.
The BJP has dropped Sudarshan Bhagat and fielded its ST Morcha chief Samir Oraon from this seat against Sukhdeo Bhagat of the Congress.
Rajmahal & Dumka
Rajmahal, one of the two seats reserved for STs set to go to the polls in the seventh phase, is held by Vijay Kumar Hansdak of the JMM who defeated BJP’s Hemlal Murmu to win this seat in 2019. This time around, the BJP has fielded its former state president Tala Marandi from this seat, against the incumbent JMM MP Hansdak, who also won the seat in 2014.
Meanwhile, JMM MLA from Borio Lobin Hembram Wednesday embarked on the path of rebellion to protest the candidature of Hansdak. While talking to the media in Ranchi, Hembram said that if the party does not change the candidate from this seat, he would contest as an Independent from Rajmahal.
Meanwhile, Dumka is set to witness a prestige battle with the BJP pitting Sita Soren against seven-time MLA Nalin Soren from this seat. The daughter-in-law of JMM chief Shibu Soren, Sita Soren joined the BJP in March this year.
Former chief minister Shibu Soren, who unsuccessfully contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Dumka against BJP’s Sunil Soren, has won this seat eight times in the past but is not in the fray this general election owing to his age and health issues. The BJP declared Sunil Soren as its candidate in Dumka but later accommodated Sita Soren from this seat.
JMM’s Nalin Soren upon reaching Dumka on 7 March told the media, “I have to give guru dakshina to guru ji by winning this seat.” He was accompanied by Shibu Soren’s younger son Basant Soren, a minister in the state government, and JMM veteran Stephen Marandi.
The campaign in Dumka is being helmed by Basant Soren and Stephen Marandi.
“The whole country has its eyes on the Dumka Lok Sabha seat. Guru ji is unwell, so this seat is a matter of prestige for us. The central government and the BJP conspired and sent Hemant Soren to jail and has created friction in my family. Our blood has not gone cold yet. BJP cannot stop Nalin Soren from winning the election,” Basant Soren told the media.
“The Dumka election is a litmus test for Sita Soren. Factionalism within the BJP is visible. Also, there is disappointment among supporters of MP Sunil Soren owing to withdrawal of the ticket given to him. On the other hand, the JMM seems to be intact despite Shibu Soren’s ill health and Hemant Soren’s arrest,” senior journalist Suman Singh told ThePrint.
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“Nyay Ulgulan Maha Rally”
Initially, it seemed that after JMM working president Hemant Soren’s resignation as chief minister and subsequent arrest, the field would be open for the BJP, but the picture has since changed with his wife Kalpana Soren coming forward to take charge of the campaign.
Kalpana, who chose 4 March, the JMM foundation day, to mark her formal entry into politics, is continuously touring the state. Over the past month, she has been holding public meetings in tribal dominated constituencies and JMM’s pockets of influence. In her speeches, she repeatedly accuses the BJP of targeting her husband.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) arrested Hemant Soren on 31 January in an alleged land scam case. Following his arrest, the JMM undertook a “Nyay Yatra” from 15 February to protest its leader’s arrest.
Now, the party has called for a “Nyay Ulgulan Maha Rally” in Ranchi on 21 April, which is expected to see the participation of leaders of the INDIA bloc of opposition parties, of which the JMM is also a part. Ulgulan means ‘unlimited uproar/noise’ or revolution.
Jharkhand CM Champai Soren, who took over from Hemant, told the media that a pledge will be made at this rally to uproot the BJP.
According to political analyst Rajat Kumar Gupta, “The Nyay March followed by Nyay Ulgulan rally, from this sequence, it can be understood that the JMM is trying to effectively mobilise its cadre and tribals by bringing them on a big platform. Anyway, the tribal society sees Hemant Soren’s arrest as a ploy of the BJP.”
“Nyay Yatra awakened the Jharkhandi. In the upcoming Ulgulan Maha rally, a roar will be sounded against the conspiracy to send Hemant Soren to jail. BJP leaders have no base in Jharkhand; they are contesting polls relying on Modi. But this time, all the ‘charisma’ of Modi will be in vain in the tribal areas like the results of Jharkhand assembly elections in 2019,” remarked JMM MLA from Kharsawan Dashrath Gagrai.
“The JMM has a history of fighting in times of adverse circumstances. The way equations are emerging in tribal areas, there is a possibility that Hemant Soren’s arrest and resignation from the post of chief minister may backfire for the BJP,” Gupta told ThePrint.
Samir Oraon, national president of the BJP’s ST Morcha and the party’s candidate from Lohardaga seat, meanwhile, asked, “What is this Nyay Ulgulan rally about? Hemant Soren is in jail on corruption charges. The whole country believes in the work and mantra of Narendra Modi.”
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP secured 51 percent of the total votes polled in the state with a lead in 57 of the 81 assembly segments. But in the assembly elections held only a few months later, the party lost power and its vote share was reduced to 34 percent.
The JMM-Congress combine was propelled to power in the state, having won 30 and 16 of the state’s 81 assembly seats, respectively.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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