New Delhi: Over half of 88 MLAs of Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) — then Telangana Rashtra Samithi — who won in the 2018 Telangana assembly elections secured their victory with over 50 per cent vote share, up from 19 in 2014.
Of the 19 BRS MLAs who had won with such high vote shares in 2014, all but one seat came back to BRS’ fold in 2018, and 13 repeated the feat of winning their seats with over half of all votes in the constituency.
These figures suggest how difficult it is for opposition parties, especially in a triangular contest, to dislodge Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) from power. An opinion poll has, however, suggested a drastic fall in the BRS’ fortune in the coming election.
The ABP-C Voter opinion poll, released on 9 October, projected 48-60 seats for the Congress in the 119-member assembly, with a 10 percent positive swing in its favour.
In the last election, Congress was a distant second with 19 seats (four of which were won with over 50 per cent vote share) while the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won seven seats, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) won two, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won one.
The opinion poll pegged BRS’ tally at 43-55 seats, with a negative swing of around 9 percent in vote share. The BRS could, though, probably take solace in that opinion polls have often gone wrong.
Speaking to ThePrint, Dr Harathi Vageeshan of department of political science at Telangana’s NALSAR University of Law said, “Situation is very dicey for sure. It’s a tough challenge for any scientific surveyor as well. But there is some sort of euphoria in the air… in the Congress camp. But we have to see the full Congress list which is yet to come.”
However, for the BRS camp, he said there is some “battle weariness”.
“Nothing very new or novel is appearing in the BRS manifesto. In a way, a little bit of battle weariness is appearing because they don’t have anything new to say. They are not very serious about questions related to governance, which I think the new voter will be seeking, and this time there is a sizable number of young voters.”
Gali Nagaraja, a Hyderabad-based political analyst, said that the Congress seems to be in a good position due to the optics formed thanks to its victory in Karnataka. “Since that survey, BRS seems to be improving. It will be a keen contest,” he told ThePrint.
Of the BRS’ 88 candidates who won in 2018, 76 are set to fight again on the party’s ticket from the same constituencies, indicating the party’s high confidence in its MLAs.
Out of the remaining 12 who did not feature in the BRS’ candidate list, two passed away during their tenure and in two seats that the party won in 2018, BRS is yet to announce its candidates.
Huzurabad MLA Eatala Rajendar jumped ship to the BJP in 2021. Koratla MLA Kalvakuntla Vidyasagar Rao’s son is set to replace him. Kamareddy MLA Gampa Govardhan has been replaced by KCR who is fighting on two seats.
“The Congress and the BJP said there is anti-incumbency and asked if the BRS has the courage to repeat the same candidates. They were saying that KCR is afraid and he is going to change many candidates. He (KCR) likes to take challenges,” Krishank Manne, BRS spokesperson and Chairman of the Telangana State Mineral Development Corporation (TSMDC), told ThePrint.
But political scientist Harathi says that there will be “dissidence” due to repeat candidates in at least 20-25 assembly seats. “That may be very effective dissidence within the party. This dissidence, which they might be undermining, will be due to repeated candidates.”
Among those 50 BRS MLAs with over 50 percent vote share, seven had their vote shares between 60-70 percent. KCR’s son and minister K.T. Rama Rao won his seat, Sircilla, with 71 percent vote share. KCR’s nephew Harish Rao won his seat, Siddipet, with 78.6 percent vote share.
According to Gali Nagaraja, going into 2023 elections, BRS MLAs who won with over 50 percent vote share, will have an advantage: “For BRS candidates, there is some advantage because the opposition is not as strong. There might be anti-incumbency against KCR but the opposition parties are failing to make the most of the opportunity because of their internal problems.”
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Other parties in the fray
The other regional party in the state, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, also had some big winners in 2018. Owaisi’s brother Akbaruddin Owaisi, won the seat of Chandrayangutta with 68 percent vote share. The party’s candidate from Bahadurpura, Mohammad Moazam Khan, won with 74.2 percent vote share.
In 2018, the BRS won many seats with high margins in northern Telangana. The erstwhile-districts of Medak, Ranga Reddi and Karimnagar send 37 members to the assembly. Of these, the BRS won 31 seats, including 24 seats with over 50 per cent vote share. Gali Nagaraja said, “North Karnataka was and continues to be the heart of the Telangana movement. KCR’s influence is definitely there. Also, though BJP gained in 2019 in North Telangana, in state elections, the BJP cannot be a force.”
“In 2018, (TDP leader) Chandrababu Naidu’s entry in the assembly election worked to KCR’s advantage. Telangana sentiment was dying down around that time and people were thinking about KCR’s performance. When Naidu joined hands with the Congress party, that sentiment of Telangana came alive again. All other issues took a backseat,” he said.
However, in the erstwhile Khammam district — now constituting present day Khammam and Bhadradri Kothagudem districts — BRS drew a near blank. Out of 10 seats here, BRS managed to win just one.
Bordering Andhra Pradesh, Khammam has always been a difficult region for the BRS. “Even at the peak of the Telangana movement, Khamman was never a part of it. Congress has more prospects in Khammam,” said Gali.
In July this year, former Congress president Rahul Gandhi launched the party’s campaign from Khammam.
“KCR monitors his leaders frequently. Many Congress candidates have been inactive. When it comes to KCR, his programmes keep cadres and leaders active. Our election campaign started a year ago with Atmiya Sammelan, as part of which we held meetings of 1,000-2,000 people in each village. Organisation has always been very active. That is the reason these margins have been so good,” said BRS leader Krishank.
Congress insiders in the state say that in 2018, the fight within its state leadership cost the party heavily. “Last time our leadership were fighting within themselves over the chief minister’s position. But this time it won’t happen because high command is fully involved. They are giving tickets based on surveys. They are handling it very strictly,” said a Congress leader on the condition of anonymity.
Syed Nizamuddin, Congress’s state spokesperson, believes that the party will benefit from its “guarantees” and the anti-incumbency triggered by 10 years of KCR.
“They (KCR) made so many commitments, none have been fulfilled. We have given six guarantees. People have seen that we have implemented them in Karnataka and they have seen our tenure before 2014 (in erstwhile unified Andhra Pradesh). People will trust Sonia Gandhi, who gave them the Telangana state. She had promised and delivered Telangana. She has promised and will deliver the six guarantees,” the Congress leader added.
BJP spokesperson Sangappa Jenawade credits two schemes that worked for KCR. “He had two main promises at the time, Rythu Bandhu and farm loan waivers. That is why they got so many seats and the vote share too.”
“But every BRS MLA has got a very bad name now,” said Jenawade. “Every MLA has got a corrupted name. In every constituency, people are against their respective MLAs.”
Sangappa says that in the border constituencies, near Karnataka and Maharashtra, BJP is very strong this time.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
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