Chennai: After days of post-poll political outreach, backchannel negotiations and intense maneuvering, C. Joseph Vijay finally managed to cobble together enough support to secure an invitation from the governor to form the government. Even then, the numbers amounted to only a wafer-thin majority.
It was only after 25 AIADMK MLAs broke ranks and announced their support for the TVK that Vijay felt he had the numbers to give him a cushion during the floor test on 13 May. This gave rise to speculations that AIADMK rebels would be included in the Cabinet.
With the induction of IUML and VCK MLAs into the Cabinet on Friday, it has reached its full sanctioned strength of 35 members.
While the AIADMK rebel faction, led by C.V. Shanmugam, maintains that they did not have any expectations of power when they extended the support to Vijay, analysts say the snub is deliberate and calculated.
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Allies draw the line
When the assembly election results were announced on 4 May, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) secured 108 seats. But it was effectively 107 seats as Vijay won two seats and he had to vacate one. Thus, the party fell 11 short of the majority mark of 118.
With the Congress extending support with its five seats, and later Left (CPI, CPM), and IUML and VCK offering support of two seats each, the TVK could reach the 120 mark.
The support of 25 MLAs of the AIADMK rebel faction added to the strength of the government, even though it was not mandatorily required for the TVK to prove majority.
When the Cabinet expansion was being discussed, TVK allies drew a red line: they will not support the party if it joins hands with the AIADMK, which continues to be an ally of the BJP.
The most immediate constraint on Vijay was the ideological positions of his key alliance partners including Left parties like the Communist Party of India and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi. The IUML had also expressed its unwillingness to associate with any faction that is linked with BJP, even indirectly.
While the rebel AIADMK leaders claim to represent a separate faction, the AIADMK under Edappadi K. Palaniswami works with the BJP and many leaders from the rebel faction are known to be closely associated with BJP.
Moreover, rebels who split from the EPS camp may have distanced themselves from Palaniswami, but in the eyes of the CPI and VCK, they have not distanced themselves enough from the BJP.
Inducting AIADMK rebels into the Cabinet would have immediately strained Vijay’s relationships with partners whose support is crucial for the survival of his government, but also for ideological credibility.
Analysts also say that Vijay’s criticism of the AIADMK in the run-up to the elections remains fresh in the minds of the people.
During his rally in Namakkal, Vijay had questioned the AIADMK why it had “forgotten” its leader J. Jayalalithaa’s stance of keeping the saffron party away. “The followers of MGR are not supporting the alliance with the BJP but the party has forgotten its leaders. What has the BJP done for Tamil Nadu?” he had asked during his rally.
Political analyst Arun Kumar said, “S.P. Velumani and C.V. Shanmugam are on good terms with BJP leaders in Delhi. While they may have internal rifts in the AIADMK, the BJP remains silent on the same and would continue their association with both the factions. In such a circumstance, it is not ideal for the TVK to associate with the AIADMK rebel faction unless there is clarity on their stance with BJP.”
Vijay’s campaign against Dravidian duopoly
In the 2026 election campaign, Vijay positioned himself as an alternative to the Dravidian duopoly in Tamil Nadu for years. Tamil Nadu has been “trapped” for decades, Vijay said, in a cycle between the DMK and the AIADMK and the state wanted change.
He stated that the two parties delivered the same type of governance, and accused both of them of corruption, and public neglect.
In such circumstances, analysts say, inducting AIADMK rebels in the Cabinet, would seem like Vijay going back on the stance he built against the duopoly.
“The TVK presented itself as the genuine alternative and inducting rebel AIADMK leaders into the cabinet, however convenient in the short term, would have immediately undermined that narrative. Vijay is cautious of taking any such steps currently, given that the government has just been formed and it would not like to break the narrative he built in the minds of the public against the duopoly,” said political analyst A. Ramasamy.
During a party event in Mamallapuram in January 2026, Vijay had said that people should not vote for either of the two Dravidian parties.
He said that neither the “evil force”, an indirect attack on the DMK, nor the “corrupt force”, a veiled attack on the AIADMK, should come to power.
“The people of Tamil Nadu were disappointed and wanted someone as their leader who could work for them. They are disappointed after voting alternatively (for DMK and AIADMK) and are now trusting TVK,” he had said, while addressing his party workers in Mamallapuram.
TVK functionaries themselves believe that the voters who backed the TVK expecting a break from old politics would have not received the inclusion of AIADMK leaders well. Vijay’s advisors were also conscious of this optics problem from the beginning.
Uncertainty within AIADMK
While 25 AIADMK rebel MLAs supported the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam during the floor test, they did it not because they were interested in taking power, but because they respected the public mandate.
The rebel faction’s own future within the AIADMK remains deeply unresolved. While the CV Shanmugam and SP Velumani-led faction wants to hold a general body meeting, EPS has been delaying the same and no formal notices have been served from either end to pursue the split legally.
The division is very clear within the AIADMK, but repeated statements from the rebel faction that they do not want to split the party but would want a power structure revision, also signals that a reconciliation with Palaniswami is not entirely off the table.
Several voices in the rebel camp have said that if EPS were to call a meeting and hold a discussion, unity talks could begin.
Talking to ThePrint, C V Shanmugam said, “Our only grievance is within our own party and we want to resolve that. We did not extend support to TVK out of expectations of being offered power. While it is up to the TVK to decide on the same, we never had such aspirations to gain a position in the cabinet or to break our party.”
The ambiguity within the rebel faction itself makes them unreliable to be included in the Cabinet. Until the rebel faction breaks ties with both EPS and the broader AIADMK-BJP alliance, they remain a group that the TVK would remain skeptical of.
(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)
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