The summit meeting between the heads of state of North Korea and Russia has come at a very interesting time. Kim Jong Un has been ostracised by the United Nations and the international community for his nuclear adventurism, and Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine.
The announcement of the meeting was made just before the G20 summit in New Delhi last week. Notably, North Korea was one of the few countries that opposed the UN Resolution against Russia in March 2022 at the G20 summit in Indonesia.
Kim has been perturbed by the bonhomie between the US, South Korea, and Japan. These countries held bi- and trilateral meetings at Camp David in August this year, as well as on the sidelines of the G7 and G20 meetings in Tokyo and Bali last year. Organisations like the Quad or AUKUS further complicate matters for him.
In the current scenario, the strained US-Russia relations make it easier for Kim to strengthen ties with Russia.
Russia, alongside China, has been a great source of support for North Korea. In fact, North Korean nuclear scientists have cut their teeth at various Soviet technical and scientific institutes since the 1960s. The two countries signed an agreement of cooperation in the field of atomic energy as far back as 1959. Barring a short period in the late 1980s and early 90s, Russia has been a reliable supporter, as has China.
However, in recent years, China has grown closer to North Korea than Russia. It is due to the support of these two nations that many UN Resolutions against North Korea either failed to pass or required numerous amendments.
As usual, Kim Jong-Un arrived by train at Ussuriysk in Russia, a city north of Vladivostok, on 13 September. He changed trains at the border city and proceeded to his meeting place. The train had to be changed due to the differing railway lines in North Korea and Russia. Interestingly, the train is supposedly better equipped than any aeroplane cabin for a dignitary in the world. Kim’s trip is supposed to include visits to an aviation factory, marine biology labs, and space ports.
Also read: Russia tells the United States: don’t lecture us over ties with North Korea
Why the pilgrimage
The trip to Russia serves multiple purposes for Kim. Firstly, his country’s economy is in the doldrums because of the UN sanctions and a decline in trade, worsened by the Covid-19 lockdown. Consequently, he must revive trade to secure essential resources like food, electricity, fuel, and medicines.
Secondly, opportunities to sell military, nuclear, and missile technology, which are North Korea’s main foreign exchange earners, are few and far between. Until now, these transactions occurred clandestinely with countries like Pakistan, Iran, Libya, or non-state actors. But the current opportunity allows for open dealings, with neither Kim nor Putin is in a frame of mind ready to be deterred by global disapproval.
Thirdly, in exchange for arms, ammunition, and military equipment, Russia promises space and satellite technology. Having successfully tested nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, Kim now just needs to refine them. And what better partner than Russia for this?
Chinese reaction
President Xi Jinping has not yet reacted to this meeting, but he likely would be in a dilemma. China would not be very happy with North Korea’s renewed relations with Russia, as it could dilute Beijing’s own relationship with Pyongyang.
One might recall Xi’s discomfiture when Kim sought direct engagement with Donald Trump in 2018 in Singapore and then in Hanoi the following year, sidelining China. However, it is not the same this time, as Russia is not an adversary.
Xi may seek to renew China’s interest in relations with Kim. Simultaneously, closer ties with Kim could jeopardise China’s standing with the international community, whose support Xi will need to push the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects forward. China already finds its relations with traditional partners like Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, and others extremely strained.
What reaction can be expected from other major powers such as the US, UK, France, and Japan to the meeting between Kim and Putin? Is there anything more they can do beyond passing strongly worded resolutions for violating UN sanctions on North Korea? No one would care.
In this sense, the situation seems to be a complex interplay between Russia, China, and North Korea. Between Russia and North Korea, it’s hard to say which one is in deeper waters. It’s here that we can expect China to fish.
Vyjayanti Raghavan retired as a Professor at the Centre for Korean Studies at JNU. Her doctorate was on North Korea’s nuclear programme. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)