Congress and JD(S) now need to sit together to quickly reach an agreement on a power sharing agreement as well as a minimum common programme.
After four breathless days of non-stop politicking, which kept journalists and resort employees fully employed, BJP’s gambit of securing power in Karnataka has failed. B.S. Yeddyurappa, chief minister for all of 55 hours, resigned without seeking trust vote and proceeded to the Raj Bhavan to submit his resignation.
From the beginning, Yeddyurappa’s quest to form government, despite not possessing majority, was a fool’s errand. The reason is quite simple. Yeddyurappa wanted to ask Congress and JD(S) MLAs to vote according to their conscience and not follow party whip. Plain and simple, his appeal was violative of the 10th Schedule of the Constitution. The anti-defection law doesn’t permit conscience vote.
But then, the BJP operated on a different logic. For the BJP, anti-defection provision was a technical problem to be solved. Its spokespersons argued, both on national television and in Kannada language channels, that the people of Karnataka have voted the Congress government out of power and have elected BJP as the single largest party. Since the party is so close to majority, it should not only be allowed to form the government, but more importantly, MLAs from other parties are duty-bound to support the Yeddyurappa government.
Even if the JD(S)-Congress alliance has majority support, BJP contended, it shouldn’t be allowed to form the government since that alliance is an opportunistic, post-poll arrangement, and thus has no legitimacy. Therefore, in their mind, splitting the opposition or getting some MLAs to resign was a legitimate political tactic.
With each passing hour since the counting of votes Tuesday, BJP spokespersons continued to make their case with growing conviction. Perhaps it is this belief in their own hubris that caused BJP’s downfall Saturday evening when realisation finally dawned that no JD(S) or Congress MLA has crossed over to BJP.
Since Tuesday afternoon, BJP has had a formidable opponent in the form of Congress.
Whatever their missteps may have been prior to and during the elections, Congress leaders, both at the national level and in Karnataka, have been quite nimble and strategically surefooted. By offering to support Kumaraswamy even before final results became available Tuesday, they foreclosed any eventuality other than a JD(S)-Congress government. To ensure that eventuality, Congress rushed to the Supreme Court repeatedly, and diligently protected its MLAs from poaching, even if both these acts brought some ridicule to the party.
Now that a Kumaraswamy-led JD (S)-Congress government will govern Karnataka in the immediate future, the Congress will need more of that political smartness. While the Congress has promised unconditional support to JD(S), both the parties need to sit together to reach an agreement on a power sharing agreement as well as a minimum common programme. Caste and regional equations need to be worked out while allocating ministries. That will not be easy.
Ministerial contenders will be more vocal and prone to dissident activities in a coalition government than in a single party majority government. So, after five years of relatively dissidence-free political environment during the Siddaramaiah regime, Bengaluru should now see more resort yatras and outbursts from aspirants, which was a common sight for a decade — from 2004 to 2013.
While it is true that not many expect this alliance to last a full five-year term, it would be reasonable to presume that the Kumaraswamy government would remain stable at least until the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, which Congress and JD(S) would now likely fight jointly. What happens afterwards is anybody’s call.
In his trust vote speech Saturday evening, Yeddyurappa already launched the 2019 Lok Sabha campaign. Casting himself heroically as a fighter for farmers and the underprivileged, Yedyurappa called out Kumaraswamy directly and said he would travel across the state to fight for their interests. He declared his determination to win all the 28 Lok Sabha seats for BJP. A wounded Yeddyurappa is a formidable opponent for the JD(S)-Congress alliance.
Never before has Karnataka assembly elections captured national imagination as in 2018. National press camped out in Karnataka in large numbers to see if Congress could present itself as a creditable contender to BJP in 2019. Despite BJP’s 26-seat margin over the Congress, this was an intense and closely fought political battle. Are there lessons for both the Congress and the BJP, which are likely to have one more round of intense electoral fight in four states later this year? Even as the government formation process moves forward in Karnataka this week, that postmortem of Karnataka elections will continue for some time.
Prithvi Datta Chandra Shobhi is a social historian and political commentator. At present, he teaches history at the Karnataka State Open University, Mysuru.