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HomeOpinionWith every outburst, Mamata Banerjee is encouraging a CPM-Congress deal minus TMC

With every outburst, Mamata Banerjee is encouraging a CPM-Congress deal minus TMC

After Rahul Gandhi's arrival in West Bengal, for the last few days, Mamata Banerjee's fury has been directed more at his MP from Bengal, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. And the CPI-M. 

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A Bengali’s spoken Hindi is often the subject of jokes, and phrases like ‘Kahin pe nigahen, kahin pe nishana’, commonly used in north Indian politics, have very little currency in this eastern state. But, nothing perhaps describes more aptly than what has been unfolding in Bengal since Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra made an entry.

Gandhi was last seen riding through Murshidabad district, with Congress MP and Bengal chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury right beside him, in a bright red open jeep. Crowds lining both sides of the road waved at him, some with Congress tricolour in their hands, others with the hammer and sickle on the bright red flags of the CPI-M. The signal is simple: the Congress and the CPI-M are firm friends this election.

However, this sight made Bengal boss Mamata Banerjee see red. Or, at least, she cleverly used the wash of crimson around Gandhi as the perfect excuse to declare, for the second time in recent days this election season, that she is going solo. ‘Ekla Chalo Re.’ INDIA adieu in Bengal. See you in Delhi after the elections, maybe.

But who is the true object of Mamata Banerjee’s wrath and why? Kis pe hain unki nigahen aur kaun hai nishana?

Initially, if you recall, the object of her wrath was Rahul Gandhi, who, she claimed, despite being an alliance partner in INDIA, had not bothered to inform her that he was arriving in her state with his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. What discourtesy and arrogance, she had thundered.

After his arrival, however, she shifted sights. For the last few days, her fury has been directed less at Gandhi and more at his MP from Bengal, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. And the CPI-M.

Her strategy to deal with the two targets was different. The CPI-M, she attacked openly. “The CPM is BJP’s number one dalal (broker),” she said at a public rally at Beherampore in Murshidabad district on 31 January. “We had a good understanding with Congress but if anyone has ruined it, then it is CPM.”

Her attack on Chowdhury was subtle. She never took his name. But here is what she said. “I wanted to give them (Congress) two seats in Malda. They don’t have a single MLA. But they said no, not acceptable. How many do you want? 42? You will fight in 42 and lose all of them and BJP will win and come to Bengal and do mastani? I will not allow it. I have the guts; I can fight the BJP.”

Nigahen on Rahul, nishana on Adhir and CPI-M

She repeated her seat-sharing offer a few minutes later and said exactly the same thing, so you can be sure there was no slip of the tongue. “I was the first to propose it. You (Congress) don’t have a single MLA (in Bengal). But it is ok. I will give you two seats in Malda and ensure your victory there. They said no. So, I said OK, namaskar. Bhai, I cannot work with the CPM. They have thrashed me on my head, leg, waist, eye. They have snatched lives of people,” she said.

Basically, Mamata wants no truck with anyone who hobnobs with CPM.

No mention of Adhir Chowdhury, mind you. So why do I say she is targeting him?

Well, here is where you either must know Bengal’s geography like the back of your hand or read between the lines.

Congress has two parliamentary seats in Bengal: Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury is MP from Malda Dakshin and Adhir from Berhampore.

But Mamata Banerjee offered Congress two seats in Malda district. And not a single one in Murshidabad. This means that the TMC will not field any candidate against Congress in the two Malda seats. But it will deploy all guns against Chowdhury in Beherampore. Which is not friendly. Logically, Mamata Banerjee should have offered Congress the same two seats that the latter had won in 2019. But she did not.

So, her nigahen may have been on Rahul Gandhi and the CPI-M. But her nishana clearly was Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury.

Such is the pathological animosity between Banerjee and Chowdhury.

It is no wonder, however, that the Congress rejected her seat-sharing offer. How can it give up the one seat that has returned its MP to Parliament without a break for the five terms?

Despite his running battle with Banerjee since they were colleagues in the Congress, despite the fact that, in 2019, the BJP was on the rise in Bengal and eventually won 18 seats, Chowdhury won Berhampore against TMC with a margin of 80,000 votes. In 2014, that margin was 3.5 lakh.

For the Congress, which is fighting for every seat it can get, sacrificing Chowdhury is not an option. So, a Congress-TMC deal seems impossible in the foreseeable future.

There is more. Chowdhury is not the sole nishana. Poll math says if the CPI-M and Congress unite for the elections, then they are likely to do more damage to the BJP than to the TMC. Remember, 2011 and after saw a huge shift of CPI-M votes to the BJP, sending BJP’s vote percentage spiralling almost by the same number that the CPI-M lost. If some of those votes return to the CPM-Congress combine and eat into BJP’s share, who is TMC to complain?

With her temper tantrums, Mamata Banerjee may actually be encouraging a CPM-Congress deal minus TMC as it would be better for her party than a TMC-Congress deal which she has been in favour of, well, sort of. That deal could consolidate anti-incumbency votes and send them into the BJP bag, the last thing she needs. Especially with the 2026 assembly election looming.

My Hindi is dubious so I can’t attempt it. But ‘Kahin pe nigahen, kahin pe nishana’ needs a rewrite if it is about someone in possession of a third eye with a focus on the long-term.

The author is a senior journalist based in Kolkata. She tweets @Monideepa62. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)

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