The last word on the surprise and aborted coup orchestrated by Wagner mercenaries, led by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ‘trusted’ friend and chef, 62-year-old Yevgeny Prigozhin, is yet to be written. Going by the mysterious circumstances surrounding the coup’s initiation, its secretive conclusion, and the contradictory reports from around the world, the true nature of the coup will likely remain shrouded in suspense for the foreseeable future.
Under the compromise formula offered by Putin, the fighters of Wagner group have three options: they could join the Russian Army, return to their home countries, or relocate to Belarus. However, Putin made no mention of his friend Prigozhin in his speech. The Wagner “army” has been providing its services in various conflict zones besides Ukraine, such as Syria, Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. The future of these forces remains uncertain. It is doubtful whether they will be brought back to Belarus or absorbed into the regular Russian army.
It appears that the siege and capture of Bakhmut was solely a Wagner operation for which the fighters were not adequately rewarded as per their contract. Some even suggest that the defence establishment in Moscow mishandled the situation with Prigozhin in a less diplomatic manner. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a Putin loyalist who offered to “help put down the mutiny by Wagner and use harsh measures if necessary”, blamed the coup on Moscow authorities denying a coveted piece of land in St. Petersburg to Prigozhin’s daughters, Polina and Veronika, as well as his son Pavel, who are prominent business owners in Russia’s second-largest city.
Whatever the reason behind the failed coup—personal, political, or ideological—it is certain that Putin’s image as an unassailable strong leader has been dented. Only time will tell if he is able to repair the dent or decides to carry on and gets seriously hurt by the chinks in his armour.
Putin swiftly responded to the coup by fortifying Moscow and sending a clear message to his former friend-turned-foe that any attempt by the mercenaries to enter Moscow would result in their decimation. As a back-up plan, Putin reportedly reached out to Iran and Turkey for assistance. While Tehran and Ankara maintained that it was an internal matter, they may have likely assured their support to Putin to be on the safer side. It is then that Putin must have turned to his trusted ally, President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus.
Strangely, Putin, who referred to India as “a great power” and “longstanding friend”, did not call “dear friend” Narendra Modi for help, nor were there reports of him contacting Beijing.
Also read: Who is Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Time to end the conflict
As the Wagner coup was unfolding, India and the US were inking an agreement on technology cooperation and strategic partnership. Their joint statement expressed deep concern over the conflict in Ukraine and mourned the devastating humanitarian consequences, pledging continued humanitarian assistance to Ukrainians. However, the statement did not explicitly name Russia or engage in a blame game, staying close to New Delhi’s neutral stance on the conflict.
Considering the language used in the joint statement, there is little wonder Putin did not call India for support during his hour of crisis. The India-US joint statement clearly supported developing economies from the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recognised the need to provide humanitarian aid to war-torn Ukraine. In such circumstances, Moscow’s decision not to rely on New Delhi for assistance is understandable.
What is intriguing, however, is why Putin did not seek help from his friend and ideological brother, Chinese President Xi Jinping. Perhaps it was because Beijing maintained a stoic silence from the moment news of the coup emerged. Only after the coup was officially declared over did the Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang meet with Russia’s deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko in Beijing. Soon after the meeting, Beijing broke its silence and declared the mercenary revolt as Russia’s “internal affair” while expressing support for Putin’s government. “As a friendly neighbor and a new era comprehensive strategic cooperative partner, China supports Russia in protecting national stability and achieving development and prosperity,” the Chinese foreign ministry declared.
The coup, albeit unsuccessful, will undoubtedly have lasting implications for the region’s geopolitics and India-Russia-China relations. Both China and Russia will take note of India’s strategic partnership with the US as a positive tilt towards Washington. While China is prepared for the consequences of such a ‘tilt’, Putin may find it difficult to distance himself from both China and India while engaging in a conflict with the Pentagon and its various arms of war. Moscow might turn to Turkey and Iran and even offer the services of its mercenary fighters, which could significantly impact the security situation in the region. India needs to heighten vigilance while also engaging with Moscow to end the conflict as soon as possible. The post-war restructuring of the Russian economy, which has been ravaged by both war and a coup, is perhaps even more crucial than the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.