US President-elect Joe Biden’s choice of Lloyd Austin, an Army general who headed the US Central Command, as the Secretary of Defense has raised concerns about the Democrat’s foreign policy, especially towards the Indo-Pacific and China. For a number of reasons, these concerns are overblown. The state of US-China relations probably depend more on China than the US, but even more so on the underlying conditions of international politics and the balance of power in the region. While not inevitable, the overwhelming likelihood is of conflict between the US and China, irrespective of who the US Defense Secretary is, or indeed, who the US President is.
The cabinet choices of incoming US administrations are always tricky because they have to cater to different groups that make up the coalition that claim to have helped win the election as well as different groups that the new administration will need to depend on for future domestic political fights. This dynamic is particularly important with Biden because his was a fairly narrow victory, in which he squeaked through with margins of a few thousand votes in three critical states, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. Illustratively, in each of these states, the third-placed Libertarian party won more votes than the margin. While Biden has a significant lead in total votes cast nationally, this is a meaningless number in the context of the US presidential election.
Even more importantly, Biden could be the first Democratic Party president elected without controlling both houses of Congress since 1885. This will be decided by the two run-off Senate elections in Georgia, slated for early January. If the Democrats lose even one of these, Republicans will have a clear majority in the Senate. This will be a critical obstacle to Biden, especially since it is the Senate that approves presidential appointments. But even if the Democrats win both, there are continuing internal differences between various factions in the party. Indeed, Biden may have picked Austin partly as a consequence of opposition from the Left-wing of the Democrats to Michèle Flournoy, who was initially considered the front-runner for the post. Moreover, Biden had repeatedly promised ‘a cabinet that looked like America’, which is not easy considering the demands from different groups. Biden’s justification for picking Austin, which itself is an indictment of the internal disagreements about the choice, emphasised that the US Army general “will be the first African American to helm the Defense Department”.
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A choice with a reason
While Biden’s choice is understandable because of these pressures, foreign policy analysts have pointed to Austin’s lack of familiarity with China and the Indo-Pacific, the looming security challenge that the US faces. China was not even mentioned in Biden’s justification for Austin’s selection. These concerns are growing because, in addition to not mentioning China, both Biden and Austin used the older term ‘Asia Pacific’ instead of the more recent formulation, ‘Indo-Pacific’. It harks to the possibility that a Biden administration might seek a new compact with China. This fits with the views of what Thomas Wright, a close observer of US foreign policy trends, has characterised as ‘the restorationists’ wing of Democratic foreign policy thinking. Biden picking John Kerry for a newly created cabinet position as a ‘climate envoy’ may be another indication of the ascendancy of the restorationists.
Still, the concerns about the Biden administration’s China policy may be overblown. For one, Biden clearly sees some of these appointments as a sop to the Left-wing within the Democratic coalition, and it may not be an indicator that Biden will seek an accommodation with China. More importantly, even if Biden were so inclined, it is not entirely his choice to make. Whether there will be a deepening conflict between the US and China is also dependent on Beijing’s choices. China has been the driver of the increasingly tense international condition, with its harsh ‘wolf-warrior diplomacy’, its hostage-taking, and its use of trade to coerce other countries near and far. None of this is a defensive response to the conditions that China faces but an offensive tendency that has many roots. One is China’s growing power. As countries become stronger, the areas and issues they consider as vital to their national security also expand. China is no different.
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China’s game too
In China’s case, however, this natural expansion of interest is exacerbated by the hyper-nationalism that the Chinese regime has fostered, an inclination that makes the country emotionally brittle and defensive when there is no need to be and thus prone to picking unnecessary fights. In addition, there is a strategic-cultural element that makes China think it is a civilisational State to which smaller neighbours must kowtow. Add to the mix Xi Jinping’s own messianic view of China’s and his place in history. Much of this is already baked into the situation and there is little that Biden can do about it, making the likelihood of a conflictual US-China relations rather difficult to avoid, short of a dramatic change within China itself.
It is, of course, understandable that Biden might want to focus on the many domestic problems that the US faces, including its economy. But what is equally true is that no great power has willingly relinquished leadership because leadership brings with it benefits that far outweigh the costs. Biden is likely to want to further push US allies and partners on burden-sharing. This is something that President Donald Trump did haphazardly but it has been a long-standing issue in the US’ relations with its partners. But to expect that Biden will do more than that will require an unlikely American exceptionalism in great power politics.
The author is a professor in International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. Views are personal.
Biden team is just an extension of Obama’s. They perceived Russia as only security threat to US global hegemony, since Russian is willing and capable to disrupt USM actions in Venezuela, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Iran… to control all oil supplies that can both threaten Russia energy export and stranglehold China.
Whereas non interference China with no ambitious to expand nor export any ideology, is just an competitor to US in technology and economy. US has multiple tools to stranglehold China competition via monopoly in petrol USD, Swift system, sanction power, core technology control, etc.
US will not risk any military confrontation will formidable China as it will make US immediately collapse into 2nd grade power. It also needs growing China to bank roll its astronomical debts and provide cheap goods to keep inflation low.
Whereas India has little value to US, besides acting as US free canon fodder to slow China rise and distract Chinese with border harassment.
Feku Ladakh standoff brinkmanship will be the beginning of India’s ending, bleeding its little resources to deny India any meaningful development, esp when India already facing collapsing economy in mismanaged COVID outbreak.
When powerful China decided to strike at its chosen time to retake India occupied Ladakh and South Tibet, India will suffer 10x worst than 1962 Nehru’s humiliating war with disintegration.
It will be a multi fronts war by all India neighbors frustrated with India endless invasions since 1947, with many insurgencies from those once independent nations occupied by India like NEastern states.
“Whereas non interference China with no ambitious to expand nor export any ideology” i almost choked reading this line…..
Almost has a mini stroke reading the following “distract Chinese with border harassment.”
Aww such a Saint Han China is….. please come to reality… maybe a visit to my place Arunachal (so called South Tibet) and it’s border with Tibet without any communists baggage would help you a lot in understanding about the ground reality.
The author correctly states that China is a Hyper Nationalist country. However, so is India. These two countries, each representing a sixth of mankind are intrinsically inward driven because size has made them self contained. India and Hindustan are names given to India by foreigners, the name India has given to itself is Hind. Append an i to it and Hindi is the name of it’s dominant language. Replace the i with a ‘u’ and Hindu is the name of it’s dominant religion. Append tva to that and Hindutva is the name of it’s political system. Very few countries in the world speak a language and adhere to a religion that originated within their country.
Actually, the name India has given itself if “Bharat”. Soon after Independence the Indian government should have made this the official name of the country, but they didnt.
If the Govt whatever their idealogue is not liked by people they would be thrown out in 5 years time . But In China that is not the case. So, don’t write for the sake of writing – comparing the nationalism in China and India is comparison of mole and mountain.
Since the days of Henri Kissinger, in the US, the NSA and the Secretary of State play far greater role in US relations with other nations. Does it really matter if Austin is less familiar with Asia? Eventually, US defence arm has to follow the country’s foreign policy dictats.
Biden’s appointment of an African American as the defense chief is PRIMARILY a political appointment. He was under pressure and scrutiny by the African American (black) community who had helped him win the primaries to appoint a black American to a major cabinet position. The other big cabinet position was that of Attorney General for which he had other candidates in mind. .This is how he came to appoint a retired 4-star black general as the defense chief. The appointment had nothing to do with either Middle East or China. 2. Biden is criticized for this appointment of a retired general because the military is supposed to be under a civilian boss, not under a military man like this retired general. 3. Now he is under a scrutiny by the p[progressives in his party too. They are not quite happy with him. So he has to do their bidding too in implementing some of their agenda! Times have changed. The president pf the US is not quite “free” to choose his own cabinet. China seems to have taken note of this fact! That is why perhaps it behaves the way it does.
Beijing Biden will onky pay lip service to Indo pacific or completely ignore it i the name of green future.
After China, india is waiting for another disaster of FP.
Biden will reverse China policy of Trump and would use Democracy STICk against India while seeking G2 with China. We really need clarity of where to go now.
Of course, given is JNU background, the author seems to be warning the world about accepting Chinese supremacy; otherwise be ready for troubles from China! Whatever illusions Chinese and Xi may have for themselves, neither USA nor Europe nor India is going to bother much about it. USA has to deal with China firmly otherwise USA will lose the ground fast and this is something no US President will allow. USA can team with other Quad members and manage China easily with India providing net security cover in IOR region. Black or White, any Defense Secretary will do!