When you get to age seventy-one; when you have been regularly paying income tax for fifty years; when you remember Darjeeling before its great hotel burnt down; when you remember Highland Park in Gulmarg as a quiet place; when you remember seeing Jawaharlal Nehru, who we knew as Panditji speaking in plaintive English; when you remember Soviet leaders Bulganin and Khrushchev driving down Marine Drive; when you remember that Guntakal was a meter gauge station; when you remember the young Vajpayee’s eloquence even in the years when he knew that he was going to lose; when you remember Indira contrasting “Garibi Hatao” with “Indira Hatao”; when you remember where you were when John Kennedy was shot; when you remember all these things, you are old and wise (perhaps unwise?). In our country, at least, the old are entitled to “give gyan”.
Actually, I want to refer to a more recent memory. I remember a rather elitist evening where the recondite LK Advani explained to a small audience that he picked up the idea of “India Shining” from a fashion advertisement. When I look at all the G20 banners and lights on Marine Drive, when I see the incessant media coverage of Yoga in New York, of Ray Dalio and Elon Musk praising our country and our Prime Minister, I am sorry to say that I remember “India Shining”. The party pooper in me is awakened. Just think of 2004, in my mind as in the minds of virtually all my friends, Vajpayee’s return was guaranteed. The arguments, if any, were about details. I remember former Union cabinet minister Pramod Mahajan on TV conceding defeat, but at the same time conveying that like us, he too was puzzled. And this from an expert!
Elon Musk and G20 diplomats do not vote in our elections. Perhaps it is time to pause and take a deep breath about 2024. That is my humble message to the leaders of today’s dispensation. I am on your side. But I worry.
Also Read: Patel, Nehru were right on strong Centre. Just look at US, you can’t leave it to the states
A repeat of 2004?
The similarity of the macro numbers is startling. Vajpayee had burgeoning revenues, a brilliant even if modest current account surplus, booming reserves, a low inflation rate and a solid GDP growth rate. We now have burgeoning revenues, a decent if modest current account deficit, more than booming reserves, a modest inflation rate, far below the rest of the world, and a decent GDP growth rate.
Vajpayee was also recognised as a statesman by the US President, the buoyant, if immoral Clinton, rather than the weak-kneed if chaste Biden.
Our post-Pokhran visit to Coventry was over. Our macro numbers were on a roll. Our global “standing”, whatever that word means, was high. The condescension we experienced for being “different” on Ukraine is behind us. We are apparently darlings of global elites. It is precisely good macro numbers and foreign praise that I submit is a cause for worry. They were not vote-winners in 2004. They may not be now.
But…but…but. The 2004 elections were in May, the hottest month in our country. The Election Commission postponed the Andhra Pradesh elections. They were held during one of our worst summers. Chandrababu Naidu lost badly. The switch from Karunanidhi to Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu did not help at all. The smiling Atalji was out. Who would have thought that this would happen? Between El Nino and an astrologically bad Guru-Chandala Yoga, the rains may let us down this year and the next summer may be tough. Fortunately, India may be able to feed itself; but parched villages and towns with water shortages may become albatrosses. There is now no shortage of nemeses from the past. Sharad Pawar, despite his age, could be a new YSR and pull off in Maharashtra what YSR did in Andhra Pradesh. MK Stalin is by no means a spent force. He may repeat his father’s performance.
I think it is important to get away from the feel-good rhetoric of positive macro indicators and international acclaim. These are good things in and of themselves from the country’s point of view. But there is not enough empirical evidence to show any correlation, let alone causation between these national achievements and election performance.
Chandrababu might have done better if the Election Commission had held the elections earlier or if the summer had not been so hot. There is a persistent story that he was held responsible for the weather and water shortages. No one expected the dying CPM’s Indian summer. Those are the kinds of things that happened in 2004. They can happen again. I am old enough to remember 1967. No one expected the DMK to get an absolute majority in Madras State, whose name they then changed to Tamil Nadu and no one but no one thought that K Kamaraj and SK Patil would lose. But these things happened. Voters everywhere are unpredictable and Indian voters even more so.
Also Read: Modi has carried forward Indira’s torch. Ujjain puja shows India connecting with past
Silver lining
One big silver lining is the sorry state of the opposition. They may still make 2024 another losing year for themselves. But that does not mean that the ruling dispensation can avoid a grounded campaign. Anti-corruption and labharthi (welfare scheme beneficiaries) were major pivots in 2004 and 2014 because these issues seem to resonate with voters. In contrast, high GDP growth rates or certificates from abroad are unlikely to be vote-winning talismans.
The other question that needs asking is whether a new pursuit of a shining or a rising or an arriving India might not lead to over-optimism and to distractions. One has to go back to remembering unusual campaigns: Ramakrishna Hegde trudging from town to town, his voice turning increasingly hoarse; or Akhilesh Yadav wearing a red cap and cycling around the countryside; or YSR walking from village to village; or Naveen Patnaik staying put in Bhubaneshwar, uncaring of external attention. All of them won. I don’t think the voters were moved by growth rates, fiscal stability or global praise. In fact, Chandrababu’s international praise may have been a negative.
We are still eleven months away from the time of reckoning. The unsolicited “gyan” of this old fogey with silly memories may just be a little relevant.
Jaithirth Rao is a retired businessperson who lives in Mumbai. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)