US President Donald Trump has every reason to worry about the West Asia conflict—midterm elections are less than three weeks away. There is also the price-rise crisis, unemployment, and his popularity nosediving. If Republicans lose the narrow majority in the House, Trump’s domestic and global agenda could face serious roadblocks or even face the risk of some of them being put on the back burner.
In his 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to “end inflation and make America affordable (and great) again”. But the increasing cost of living appears to be a key issue for voters to switch sides. It was probably unwise on his part to haughtily declare in his State of the Union address on 24 February 2026 that gas (petrol) prices were under control. “Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor —it was quite honestly a disaster — is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states. And in some places, $1.99 a gallon,” he had said. And four days later, as the West Asia crisis began, the gas prices reached about four USD a gallon.
Trump began his second term with an approval rating of just over 50 per cent; the West Asia conflict has reportedly brought down his approval ratings to 37.6 per cent, triggering hopes for the Democrats to register a decent victory in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that make up Congress, both currently controlled by the Republicans. Members of the House serve a two-year term, so all 435 seats are up for election in November. The current Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber, is as thin as it gets. They have 218 representatives, which is the exact number needed to have control, plus one independent who votes with them.
Fraud enforcement act
Frantically looking to send a “vote for me” signal to his MAGA voter base, which is upset at job losses, Trump piloted much-needed legislation to restrict jobs for immigrants (read: Indians) and populate the thriving IT sector with American talent. The National Fraud Enforcement Division Act of 2026, passed by 352 in favour and 72 against, with nine members abstaining, is seen as a massive win for Trump. All the Republican members supported the Bill, resulting in 212 GOP yes votes, 139 Democrats, and a lone independent member voted for the bill.
The legislation would place the National Fraud Enforcement Division permanently inside the Department of Justice, established earlier this year by Trump to investigate and prosecute fraud targeting taxpayer dollars, government programmes, businesses, nonprofits, and private citizens.
The Democrats made a smart move by strategically voting for the bill, thereby taking the wind out of Trump’s one-sided victory. The strategy probably is to appeal to the MAGA voters that two years from now, their domestic policy will be no different from that of the Republicans. The Democrats probably knew of the Labour Department’s move to close in on major global IT firms.
US Secretary of Labour, Keith E. Sonderling, made an important statement saying, “Today, thanks to President Trump, the Vice President and the task force, we are cutting off the head of the snake…I am hereby suspending from the permanent labour certification programme some of the largest IT outsourcing firms in the world: Cognizant, Infosys, Tata, Wipro, HCL and Capgemini.
Due to multiple active federal investigations, the Department of Labour is suspending Microsoft and Adobe from the programme…We will not accept any new or process any pending permanent labour certification applications involving these companies”.
The US Department of Labour’s suspension of the Permanent Labour Certification Programme (PERM), a key provision used by American employers, especially in the core IT sector, to sponsor foreign workers for permanent residency, is clearly aimed at winning over the MAGA voter base. Now, the Democrats are seeking a share in the MAGA pie.
Also read: US wants India to concede on trade and Russia. New Delhi should negotiate without fear
Trust deficit between India and US
The latest action is a clear broadening of the crackdown on foreign workers, which has become a central policy under Trump. Technology and IT services companies are particularly facing greater scrutiny over their reliance on foreign workers. In May, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services unilaterally reversed job and citizenship norms, asking those temporarily in the US to return to their home countries to apply for a Green Card. This impacted a huge number of Indians working in the US IT industry. This and several other administrative measures could collectively affect Indian IT companies that provide software development, business-process outsourcing (BPO), financial technology, healthcare IT, cybersecurity, and back-office services to US clients.
In 1997, India and the US entered into an agreement that removed tariffs and barriers to trade in all services relating to information technology. It opened the floodgates of high-paying IT services to Indian professionals, but kept hardware manufacturing away from Indian industry. Trump has unilaterally ended this 29-year-old agreement to gain the MAGA votes.
India needs to weigh its options with clarity and caution, not indulge in bravado or betray a knee-jerk reaction. Sooner or later, the US IT industry will touch rock bottom only to realise the futility of losing Indian talent and support for its software ventures. Nevertheless, this is the right time to come out of administrative apathy, policy paralysis and bureaucratic blinkers and offer unrestricted support to the domestic software and hardware industry.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to India after a stopover at Samarkand, Uzbekistan, is happening at a time when the trust deficit between India and the US is evident. Ironically, his agenda includes discussions with Indian officials and the business community on TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology), a bilateral strategic and technological framework initiative launched on 13 February 2025 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump. Rubio should be told that restoring trust is more important than TRUST.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)
Why are you so worried?
Let the Americans handle their own internal affairs. They are more than capable of figuring out things.
It puzzles me no end – the most concerned people about American tech sector and it’s health are found in India. I just can’t wrap my head around the fact – why are we so bothered by whether Silicon Valley will survive or die?
Or is it the case that in our subconscious we are always salivating at the prospect of a H1B visa – eventually leading to a Green Card?