Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s successful state visit to the United States, the first since his assuming power in 2014, is a resounding success by many standards. The cumulative effects of this visit need to be understood in the broader context of India’s long-term growth trajectory and its aspirations of playing a leading role in the region and the global order – both of which are already in a state of flux. PM Modi’s visit can be assessed on three factors, among others, that will decide the future course of the India-US relationship.
First, the visit comes at a time when the post-pandemic economic recovery of some of the developed economies in the West and Europe is under severe strain due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US economy, too, is showing signs of creaking under the weight of seemingly unproductive military spending. Even as President Joe Biden announced more aid for Ukraine, the public is reportedly growing tired of the war and the diversion of funds from more deserving domestic spending.
From expressing its initial disapproval of India’s stand of not supporting the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) against what they called the Russian invasion of Ukraine, (India abstained from casting a vote in both the UN Security Council and the UN Human Rights Council) the US has come to terms with India’s diplomatic neutrality. It is also important for the country to realise that India will not appreciate the formation of a Russia-China axis against it. In any case, New Delhi has conveyed sufficiently clearly to the US that “your enemy need not necessarily be my enemy”. However, we want the conflict to be resolved through diplomatic dialogue.
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US is feeling the heat
The second factor that preceded this visit is the rise of China and its heightened military, technological and strategic capabilities to challenge the superpower status of the US. Just a few days before Modi’s visit, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken rushed to Beijing and held several meetings with top officials. His meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was kept undecided till the very end, ostensibly to send a message to the White House about Beijing’s disapproval of Washington’s foreign and economic policies. To add to the Chinese displeasure, Biden publicly and very undiplomatically called Xi a “dictator”.
The signals and countersignals the two contesting powers send to one another are not difficult to intercept and interpret. The US is genuinely worried about China’s forays into West Asia peace brokering and other global affairs hitherto considered an exclusive prerogative of Washington. The US has itself to blame if it feels being distanced from locations it has held so far.
The third factor that adds greater significance to this visit is that while earlier visits of Modi and other prime ministers had sufficient bilateral needs between the two countries, this is probably the first time the American wish list is longer. The US is clearly feeling the heat of the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s rise in global affairs and domestic pressures that may result in a change of administration. New Delhi is comfortable dealing with either of the parties in the US, but needs to inform the occupants of the White House about the redlines in this strategic partnership – which Modi appears to have done in good measure in his speeches and interactions.
The visit calls for a clearer assessment of the global, regional and domestic situation as far as New Delhi and Washington are concerned. It is no secret that the ‘two estranged democracies’ have had their own share of conflicts of interest in the security, strategic and economic domains. The US’ unstinted support for Pakistan, much to the detriment of India’s overall security, cannot be overlooked. Former President Barack Obama’s policy of treating China as the “pivot of Asia” gave a much-needed boost to the latter’s economy, which is now coming back to bite the US.
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India is a partner, not an ally
The US, therefore, needs to understand that India is a strategic partner in the emerging global scenario but cannot be treated as an ally. The economic and strategic partnership between the two countries should be equal, including in defence and nuclear technologies. India is required to have an independent strategy in its immediate and distant neighbourhood, such as Iran and Myanmar, which have come under frequent sanctions by the US. Complying with the US has seriously affected India’s strategic and economic interests in the region. The India-US partnership and cooperation should not deter New Delhi’s pursuit of an independent foreign policy. The same applies to India’s stand on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where India has advocated for an end to the war and professed negotiated settlement of the issues in question.
India has to deal with a failed State on its Western border and a hegemonic power in the North whose expansionist agenda is at the root of its aggressive postures in the Himalayan region, as well as references to the Quad as Asian NATO. As a responsible Quad member, New Delhi has always maintained that the body is a working group of democracies engaging with the idea of an open, free, peaceful and inclusive Indo-Pacific. China will pose a problem in the emergence of this new economic framework as it prefers to be a rule maker and not a rule follower and considers the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) as an adversary of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECP).
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What the Indo-Pacific must become
The Indo-Pacific, therefore, has to materialise into an institution full of equal economic opportunities. To that extent, it must have a security framework as a deterrent against spoilsport elements. But turning the Indo-Pacific into a full-fledged security institution is not on India’s agenda. It would be futile for the US to expect India to walk the talk in turning the region into a security framework against China.
India and the US cannot keep aside the economic aspects of China’s rise as the two countries get into serious business talks. Besides General Electric, which will be supplying the F-414 jet engine technology to India, there will be a beeline of American corporates wanting to set up manufacturing facilities in various states of the country, like the Karnataka-based Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). The Centre and the states now have greater responsibilities; they must become business-friendly and serious about infrastructure development instead of fueling the fire of political rivalry. This will necessarily mean taking a backseat from street fights over pro and anti-cow slaughter laws, trivial political one-upmanship and scoring brownie points with the Centre. The states should cooperate with the Union government, and, on its part, the latter must seriously consider two aspects. One, it must enable the domestic industry to become competitive in the export market and ensure a level playing field. Two, it must make laws that will free the industry and the investors from the shackles of tax terrorism. It might be easy to sell the idea of a ‘New India’ in the US, but it needs to be marketed better in India.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)