The Ukrainian armed forces launched their much-anticipated counter-offensive against Russia in June 2023. However, by then, the Russians had already constructed well-fortified defences, laid obstacles, and coordinated their fires in large swathes of captured territory. The delay in Ukraine’s counterattacks has been attributed to inadequate military aid by Western allies, unfavourable weather and terrain conditions for the offensive, and the training of troops.
On 1 November 2023, General Valery Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, admitted in an interview published in The Economist that the war had reached a stalemate, suggesting Ukraine might get trapped in a prolonged war. His remarks drew immediate criticism from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office. Zaluzhny’s assessment led to simmering discontent between him and the President over the next few months, culminating in his dismissal on 8 February.
Zaluzhny was called for a meeting at Zelenskyy’s office on 29 January where he told the President that his advisors’ assessments of the military situation were more positive than realistic. In the meeting, Zaluzhny was reportedly asked to resign, which he refused. Subsequently, the news of his dismissal was leaked on social media, causing an uproar, and forcing the defence ministry to deny the claims. It was unclear how the government would salvage the situation having reached a point of no return. Finally, on 8 February, the President announced Zaluzhny’s dismissal, concluding the most serious civil-military crisis since the start of the Ukraine-Russia war.
Ukraine’s precarious military situation
The 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive aimed to split the Russian forces and interdict the land bridge to Crimea. While the offensive made modest gains, the Russians retained control of a fifth of Ukrainian territory and continued launching offensives along the front, with fighting reported in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Ukraine’s precarious situation is a result of multiple military and geopolitical factors. Russian forces have created an elaborate defensive network, which is protected by a large number of mines and obstacles. They have learned their lessons in the ongoing war and are skillfully employing drones for surveillance and strikes. Shortages of artillery ammunition, air defence systems, and air power have further exacerbated the delicate military situation faced by Ukrainians.
Matters for Ukraine have also worsened due to the uncertainty surrounding Western military assistance, more so by Republicans in the US Congress blocking $61 billion worth of military aid.
Zaluzhny’s assessment of the battle situation as a ‘stalemate’ was the trigger for the breakdown of his relationship with the President. His comment was interpreted as unduly pessimistic and treading into the realm of politics. It did not help that despite the failure of the counter-offensive, Zaluzhny is more popular than Zelenskyy. The popularity differential was possibly interpreted as a political threat by the Ukrainian President. The matter came to a head when Zaluzhny refused to resign, making the situation untenable for the elected leadership.
Zaluzhny has never indicated any political ambitions; however, informal Facebook posts showing photos with his wife might have been interpreted by the political leadership as a signal of intent—an unwarranted attention when Zelenskyy is reportedly contemplating polls.
The dismissal of Zaluzhny may be due to any of the reasons—disagreements over the way military requirements are being sourced, vision for the conduct of war, political stability within the country, or simply a personality clash with Zelenskyy. Notwithstanding the cause, the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief is an adverse commentary on the civil-military relations in Ukraine and could negatively impact future operations.
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Impact on the War
The war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture with the Ukrainian counter-offensive stalled and Russian forces launching operations all across the front. The US Congress is yet to clear the military aid, and Europe is unlikely to fulfil Ukraine’s military requirements.
Meanwhile, Russia has increased its defence budget from 2.7 per cent of GDP in 2022, to 6 per cent in 2024. In 2023 alone, the country manufactured over 1,500 tanks and 2,500 armoured fighting vehicles. It is also expected to produce over two million artillery shells in a year, alongside receiving supply of missiles and drones from Iran and North Korea. The impact of all this will be direct and discernible.
It is under these circumstances that Zaluzhny, widely respected for his professional competence and intellectual acumen, has been dismissed.
General Oleksandr Syrskyi is the new Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine. He too has considerable operational experience, having been responsible for the defence of Kyiv in the early days of the war and the successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv region in 2022. Notwithstanding the above, the new Commander-in-Chief will take time to gain confidence of his command, a luxury in times of war. His promotion has also resulted in a chain reaction not warranted at this time.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) commanders held Zaluzhny in high esteem. Syrskyi, however, is in an unenviable position since the support for the Ukrainian cause is dipping in many of the Western countries. He will have to gain the confidence of NATO military chiefs under these adverse conditions.
Russia is also unlikely to overlook the situation. In all possibilities, its information warfare campaign will play on the narrative of instability within Ukraine’s higher defence organisation.
The circumstances surrounding Zaluzhny’s dismissal are as complex as they are contentious, involving issues concerning the conduct of war, military propriety, political ambition, and the fundamental principles of civilian control over the armed forces. At the heart of this controversy lies the debate between the imperative for military leaders to provide honest assessments of the country’s security situation and the necessity for elected leadership to exercise control over strategic decision-making processes.
By late 2023, it was apparent that the Ukrainian counter-offensive was unlikely to produce a breakthrough, and the country may get bogged down in a prolonged war. In that sense, what Zaluzhny stated in his 2023 interview was a statement of fact. Whether the assessment was a forthright military advice or he was testing forbidden political waters, is the moot question. While the dismissal might solve a political problem, its impact on military operations may be long-lasting.
Col (Dr) Rajneesh Singh (Retd) is a Research Fellow at MP-IDSA, New Delhi. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)
By firing Zaluzhny, Zelensky has already put himself under unnecessary pressure. He is already being judged for his political and diplomatic maturity. If he navigated carefully, he could have saved a lot of trouble to his nation. Now it’s too late. Relying on west is proving to be his biggest mistake.