For once, the American political system appears to be recognising the shortcomings of the two-party system, which many in India have acclaimed as the ideal solution for overcoming the perils of coalition governments. The complicated procedure for selecting a presidential candidate in the American political system places too much importance on the candidate’s personal appeal, charisma, and ability to bear campaign costs. This may be the first time that both the Republicans and the Democrats have evaluated voter sentiment and considered changing their candidates.
While Trump’s ratings were a notch higher than Biden’s (49 percent preferred Trump compared to 48 percent for Biden), voters on both sides were apprehensive about their respective candidate’s ability to lead America. Nearly half of the voters surveyed in April preferred to change both candidates, showing ‘little confidence in either candidate’. Not anymore.
The July 13th assassination attempt on Trump’s life has given the presidential hopeful a clear lead, almost confirming his victory over the octogenarian Joe Biden. At a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a 20-year-old managed to slip past the United States Secret Service and fired a bullet at former President Donald Trump with a legally purchased AR-15 semi-automatic rifle. Shot from almost 150 meters, the bullet grazed Trump’s right ear.
Based on the angle of origin, it missed his head simply because Trump turned his torso at the right time, resulting in a providential escape from certain death. After the shooter was neutralised, Trump was rushed from the venue. On his way out, he raised his fist and chanted ‘fight, fight, fight’ while a streak of blood covered his right cheek. The bullet intended to eliminate Trump from the presidential race actually ended Biden’s chances of re-election as POTUS.
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‘Oldest US president’
The shooting has become a low point in an already cynical election cycle. It has triggered condemnation from across political lines and emboldened the growing culture of conspiratorial thinking in American politics. However, in the aftermath of the shooting, as political experts grapple with the longevity of an American president, a question has surfaced: What is the role of the vice president?
Nine US vice presidents have ascended to the Oval Office after the death or resignation of a president, and another six have won the office on their own. Since 1960, former vice presidents have proven to be the most likely candidates to win a major party presidential nomination. The attempt on Trump’s life, and continued questions about both candidates’ health and fitness at a time when either Trump or Biden would be the oldest president elected in US history, makes the selection of running mate more important than ever.
America’s vice presidents have worn various hats throughout history. They’ve been ceremonial figures, balancing agents, solutions to the president’s electoral shortcomings, and in some cases, competent bureaucrats managing the White House while the president takes on a spokesperson’s role. This election promises to be more about the vice president, who could take charge of the state’s affairs and set the tone and priorities of the White House’s policies.
Biden and Trump are 78 and 81, in a country where the average life expectancy for men is 76 years. After Biden’s recent gaffes at the NATO conference, where he confused Vice President Kamala Harris with ‘Vice President Trump’, the question of a competent and energetic vice president is certainly on the table. With Biden declared Covid-positive and requiring isolation, his vice president pick is even more urgent and likely action-packed.
However, after Saturday’s shooting, while Trump still faces pushback from conservative purists, the same question is valid for him. In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote. His support base primarily comprised ‘heartland USA’, and his victory was clear when he won the state of Ohio, flipping other states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Iowa, once won by President Barack Obama. Trump wants to replicate this with his new vice presidential nominee, JD Vance, a Yale-trained lawyer with a background perfect for Republican politics.
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JD Vance vs who?
Vance grew up as a poor working-class Caucasian male and, much like Obama, documented his life in a memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which was adapted into a movie. A former Marine and currently serving senator, Vance represents the problems of the ‘American Rust Belt’—states such as Western New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Illinois, and Michigan. Rife with poverty, drug use, and economic hardships caused by de-industrialisation, the Rust Belt has found resonance with Trumpian politics. As these states have borne the brunt of globalisation, Trump’s isolationist ‘America First’ policy has a special appeal to voters who lost their jobs to factories across the world, especially China.
Vance recognises this and rose to power on a platform similar to Trump. He represents the anger that ‘working-class whites’ have with Washington. Hence, when Vance, a onetime critic of Trump, openly spoke about reducing American aid to Ukraine, he caught the attention of the Trump campaign.
JD Vance, who began his career as a ‘Never Trumper’, acknowledged the similarity in policies between him and Trump but noted his personal aversions to the Republican presidential candidate. Much like Mike Pence, he is different from Trump. Pence was a devout evangelical Christian who served as a balance to Trump’s mercurialism. Vance is different; he appears to be the summation of a carefully coordinated Republican strategy that re-launches a new form of populist conservatism in the United States. He’s different from Ron DeSantis or Vivek Ramaswamy, who represent anti-establishment politics. DeSantis rose to fame on the Trump agenda but tried his hand at the presidential role, straining his personal relations with Trump. Ramaswamy, despite having good relations with Trump, could not offer the ‘stability’ that Vance brings as an articulate and composed agenda presser. Besides, Vance covers Ramaswamy’s ‘Indian’ appeal to the Indian American voters through his Indian-origin wife, Usha Vance. JD Vance is not just a young and competent balance to Trump—he might be a potential successor, looking for an all-American running mate in 2028.
The MAGA—‘Make America Great Again’—movement has changed the relationship between the Republican bigwigs and the electorate. Where the American middle dissociates from the alt-Right and MAGA extremes, the primaries serve as proof of Trump’s resounding popularity within the Republican fold. Vance could potentially act as a bridge between the two sides, representing a vice presidency that sees a narrow Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives and a conservative majority on the Supreme Court. This will produce an administration with unparalleled power over the American political system. This development would be concerning if retrograde political agendas affecting minorities, immigrants, and women surface. However, it would make a new era for the United States, one where there are no limits, checks, or balances against the will of the elephant.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)