If in 2004 India wanted a strong leader, in 2019 it needs a weak one. This Lok Sabha election, many are rooting for a weak Narendra Modi – the median between a strong Modi and a rag-tag coalition that collapses like a pack of cards.
Should we have a rag-tag Third Front, such a government will likely not last five years. The instability will make Modi say, look, I told you so. Modi could then be back with more than 282 seats.
We could witness a similar fate if the Congress forms the government with just 150 seats or so. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won’t let such a government work. They’ll be trying to bring it down every Parliament session. Policy paralysis will be back, emboldening cries for a strongman to take over once again.
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Should the BJP win a clear majority once again, it will make Modi stronger than he was in 2014. If Modi gets a simple majority even after failing terribly in delivering on the party’s main promise — economic prosperity — he will feel like he can get away with anything.
Expect more disastrous unilateral governance, be it Tughlaqi farmans like demonetisation or bids to steal the people’s mandate in states and destroying independent institutions. He will think nothing of unleashing social unrest, from Assam and Bengal to Kashmir and Kerala. As an economic turnaround will elude us, a strong Modi could only become more Hindutva and more jingoistic.
There is a mean point between the two extremes above: a weak Modi.
The desire for a weak Modi is the strongest among the sort of business people who dare not open their mouths to publicly criticise Dear Leader. Sotto voce, they build their castles in the air: ‘A weak Modi won’t be such a bad thing,’ they say, ‘If he gets more than 200, he won’t even listen to his people’.
It is a strange thing, to wish that one’s own country may have a weak prime minister. You’d think one would curse enemies with such a thing. Yet in the last five years, many have seen the pitfalls of a strong leader.
For all her achievements, Indira Gandhi is best remembered for the Emergency today. And, Rajiv Gandhi for wasting away the humungous four-fifth majority he won. Strong leaders tend to develop a god complex. They think they can get away with anything, now that they have the mandate of the people.
Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. This election, India needs a weak leader who’s dependent enough on a group of regional allies so that he has to constantly watch his back. Such a leader would be on his toes all the time, knowing he has to avoid extremes.
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A weak leader will know he can’t pretend farmers don’t exist or fudge economic data with a straight face. A weak leader would know he (or she) can’t choose their time to barely condemn communal violence. A weak leader will find it untenable to openly declare the ambition of making India a one-party state because the allies will say bye-bye and withdraw support.
In 2014, India elected a ‘bahubali’, not a ‘chowkidar’. People who appoint a ‘chowkidar’ don’t fear him in their sleep. In 2019, India needs a ‘chowkidar’ who’s afraid of them. A ‘chowkidar’ who knows he can get fired any moment for messing it up.
Five years is too long a time to give any leader a carte blanche to do whatever s/he wants with 1.3 billion people. Our lives can’t be subjected to the whims and fancies of one man just because we voted for him. The institutions that keep him in check matter, or at least they should. The Supreme Court, the Rajya Sabha, the Election Commission, the Lokpal, and so on.
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Next time, when the ruling party makes the CBI its political weapon, there’s got to be an unhappy ally who gets up and says this is not on. Next time, when a big business wants to say you are hurting us too much and hampering our job-creation ability for us to create jobs, some ally has to play messenger.
Of course, many of these allies will cut a deal for the lucrative ministries, a no-compete clause in the states, perhaps something like the stuff written in Yeddyurappa’s diaries. And then, there’ll be the CBI cases. But at least, they won’t be cowed down the way the BJP’s own leaders were for five years. At least, there will be more people willing to speak with courage.
A weak leader is a strong idea.