Here we go with our 10 quick takeaways from this Bihar election result.
● The first is that however incredible this landslide might look, the ossified vote banks remain. As fights become more direct, either between two parties or alliances, the gap between a rout and a landslide can be just a few percentage points. The JDU got 15.39 percent vote in 2020 and it has now gone up by about 4 percentage points to 19.26 (provisional figures at the time of writing). The BJP has risen, but only by a percentage point to 20.11 (provisional figures). Both have contested in a few seats fewer but let’s read that as marginal because these have gone to their allies. The most important ally, the Paswan dynasty’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), for example, contested just 29 seats this time, compared to 135 in 2020. Its vote percentage has remained frozen at just over 5 percent. It’s evident that in the other constituencies, its tiny vote parcels must’ve gone to the BJP or JDU.
Now, flip the coin. The Yadav dynasty RJD’s vote share has remained almost constant around 23 percent, as has the Congress party’s around 9 percent. It is clear, therefore, that the two alliance partners have not lost any vote share. It is just that the NDA has built a better alliance with Paswan’s LJP and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) to build that additional 5-8 percent kicker over frozen BJP/JDU votes. That kicker is the difference between a rout and a landslide. This is the central message of this election. The rival cannot take away your committed voters. You have to stitch alliances to bring in the “others”.
● Second, transactional appeals work if enough voters find them credible. The Rs 10,000 given to 1.4 crore women on the eve and during the campaign, and the promise of another two lakh was a lot in a state with a per capita income of Rs 69,000 per year. Plus, the voters had evidence that this was for real. In a transactional competition, one who has the power and the chequebook will always have an advantage.
● The third, following this, is that oldest truism in marketing. That nothing fails more disastrously than an obvious lie or impossibility. This was Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of a state government job to one member from each of the state’s 2.76 crore families. This only drew derision and even some contempt in a state with barely 20 lakh government employees: is this guy even serious? Or does he think we are stupid?
● Fourth, the marginalisation of the Muslim vote is stunning. Asaduddin Owaisi’s relative success actually shows that the Muslims are also getting buyer’s remorse over their unwavering commitment to “secular” forces. If they are not going to win or build any leaders from among us, why not vote for a party of our own? The secular parties, especially the Congress, have had this dilemma: ‘I want the Muslims to vote for me because they are afraid of the BJP. But can I afford to be seen close to the Muslims, bring some prominent Muslims in my party leadership? Align with a Muslim party like Owaisi’s or Badruddin Ajmal’s in Assam? Won’t that upset the Hindus?’ Time has been called on that hypocrisy. The results in Muslim-dominated Seemanchal underline that the Muslims are tired of this.
● Fifth, and this is in some ways the most important – people have a long memory which survives generational shifts. In Madhya Pradesh, people are still voting against what their parents told us was Digvijaya Singh’s non-development, in Odisha, against J.B. Patnaik’s moral and political corruption and arrogant indifference and in Bihar against Lalu’s “jungle raj”. This also reflects in a deeper belief that Yadavs and Muslims combined to oppress all of the others, upper castes as well as the Dalits. For the Congress, specifically, the most crippling loss is that of the Dalit vote.
● At number six, we put Nitish Kumar and his enduring era despite the state of his health, which is no secret to anybody in Bihar. But people are grateful not only because they do not see even the rising crime under him lately as “jungle raj”, but also the fact that he has given them 13 percent CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) since 2011. Bihar is still very, very poor but enormously better off than in the pre-Nitish era. And while under Lalu they saw local empowerment, gratitude for which reflects in his alliance still retaining about 40 percent vote, nobody outside of his bunker-line saw any hope of better growth under his son now. Nitish-plus-Modi further make a devastating welfare-and-optimism proposition. Tejashwi and Rahul were no match. That pulled that decisive 3-5 percent uncommitted voters to the NDA.
Also Read: Bihar is where politics moves, and everything else stands still
● We could have listed it higher, but at seventh spot, we have another interesting finding. Barring the early talk of ‘ghuspethiyas’ (‘Muslim infiltrators’), this was a remarkably non-communal campaign. You can give it to Nitish’s moral authority and indispensability, if you prefer. The good fact is, it shows you can sweep a big Hindi state without Hindu-Muslim polarisation. It is different in that sense from the campaigns of 2014 (Lok Sabha) and 2015.
● Eighth, we should take note of the new challenge for the underdog now. You cannot win without imagination. The same old-same old as in caste justice, minority welfare or allegations of vote chori, Ambani-Adani linkages, etc., do not cut it. Looking back, Tejashwi, the leader of the opposition, did not even join these campaigns. This was a vital disconnect between the RJD and Congress.
● How do you explain the Prashant Kishor disaster? He even had new ideas. Our ninth point, therefore, is that even if you have new ideas, it takes time, especially when you are fighting vote banks ossified across generations. Even the AAP in Delhi, despite a quiver full of new ideas and a deeply unpopular Congress incumbent, did not get a majority the first time (2013) or in Punjab (2017). PK had probably seen it when he started talking of ‘arsh par, ya farsh par’ (I’d either be flying high or lying flat on the ground). Politics is a patient game, and a school of hard knocks.
● And finally, the 10th and the last point, looks at Bihar’s future. This election marks the end of Lalu as a political force. Nitish is a matter of time, maybe a year or maximum two. Leadership positions are now opening up in Bihar. The party that will be looking at this most hungrily and with the eye of a hawk, is the BJP. They can now look at a post-Nitish future in Bihar where they will become the dominant force. If only they could find some serious local leadership.
Also Read: Caste census politics — what Bihar thinks today, Bihar used to think day before yesterday