Shiv Sena a paper tiger now, Uddhav Thackeray has no option but to accept BJP’s seat deal

With BJP strategists on the prowl, rivals Congress and NCP trying to stitch an alliance, and MNS breathing down the neck, Uddhav Thackeray has little choice.

File photo of Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray | PTI

The seat-sharing talks between the BJP and the Shiv Sena are entering a crucial phase ahead of the Maharashtra assembly election.

Both parties are bargaining hard on the number of seats. Of the total 288 seats in the Maharashtra assembly, the BJP is keen to contest on 160-164 of them. The Shiv Sena has been offered 106 seats, but Uddhav Thackeray-led party wants a minimum of 120 seats.

The BJP strategists want to keep four seats each for allies like Ramdas Athawale’s Republican Party of India, the Shiv Sangram and the Rashtriya Samaj Paksh. But an adamant Shiv Sena has refused to share its seats with the BJP’s allies.

In 2014, the BJP and the Shiv Sena fought the Maharashtra election separately for the first time in 25 years. The BJP won 122 of the 260 seats it contested. The Shiv Sena, on the other hand, managed to win just 63 of the 282 seats it contested. However, Uddhav Thackeray’s party later joined the BJP-led government in the state.

This election could mark yet another first for the alliance – if the BJP contests on more seats than the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.

Criticising BJP did not work

It is clear that the Shiv Sena’s morale under Uddhav is not what it used to be under his father Bal Thackeray, who was popularly known as the ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’.

After the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the spectacular victory of Narendra Modi-led BJP, the Shiv Sena became redundant for the party. Yet, the NDA survived and the Shiv Sena got its due share in the cabinet.

Instead of using this opportunity to strengthen its base in Maharashtra, some Shiv Sena leaders prevailed upon Uddhav to chart a separate course for the party in the state.

The Shiv Sena began to criticise the BJP repeatedly, at the Centre and in the state. Last year, Uddhav took on Narendra Modi and challenged him to build the Ram Mandir. His much-publicised visit to Ayodhya, however, turned out to be a flop show, further hitting the morale of his party. Uddhav’s attempt to steal the Mandir issue from the BJP clearly did not work.

A red-faced Shiv Sena

Shiv Sena’s current bargaining tactic is not very different from its 2014 script. Seat-sharing negotiations between the Sena and the BJP went till the last minute before they were called off.

But much has changed in the last five years. The 2014 Maharashtra election results were an eye-opener for Uddhav Thackeray and his party. The next big jolt came when Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) offered outside support to the BJP government in Maharashtra – BJP was 23 seats short of majority.

This virtually forced Shiv Sena leaders to scale down their demands and join the Devendra Fadnavis-led government in Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray, in particular, had to sacrifice his holier-than-thou attitude at the altar of survival politics.

What further soured the relationship between the two alliance partners was the Shiv Sena’s fierce protest against the multi-billion-dollar refinery project in Ratnagiri. In February, the Fadnavis government decided to shift the project elsewhere.

Shiv Sena’s shrinking base

Between 2014 and 2019, the BJP has increased its base across the state. Its impressive performance in the state civil polls, defeating the Shiv Sena in some strongholds, is proof of that.

After the 2019 Lok Sabha election results, the BJP has now consolidated its position in almost every part of Maharashtra, including Konkan, Vidarbha and Marathwada regions. In contrast, the Shiv Sena’s appeal is now limited to Mumbai, Thane and some pockets of Pune and Nashik.

Raj Thackeray and his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) are another big worry for cousin Uddhav’s Shiv Sena. While MNS has not been able to make an electoral impact in the recent elections, but it has cleverly pitted itself against the Shiv Sena.

The Shiv Sena, which was once seen as the tiger in Maratha politics, is now just a paper tiger.

With the BJP’s ace strategists on the prowl, rivals Congress and NCP trying to stitch an alliance, and the MNS breathing down his neck, Uddhav Thackeray has little room to manoeuvre. The sooner he accepts the BJP’s seat-sharing formula, the faster he can check a brewing dissent in the party.

The author is a member of the National Executive Committee of the BJP and former editor of Organiser. Views are personal.