Now that the Assembly election results are in, it’s time to think the unthinkable. Could it be that Indian politics, even in states where the BJP has a strong presence, is no longer all about Narendra Modi?
Till earlier this year, everything revolved around Modi. Every state election of consequence was treated as a referendum on Modi‘s personal popularity, his charisma and his ability to govern India. Though there were always states where Modi lost the referendum, most notably in West Bengal where his intense personalised campaign actually led to a landslide in favour of Mamata Banerjee, in much of India the electorate was content to vote for Narendra Modi.
Even during Assembly elections, candidates would ask for votes in his name. And state campaigns would be treated as extensions of national elections. Modi would address more rallies than any prime minister ever has in Indian history and much of the time, the BJP would not even bother to announce Chief Ministerial candidates. The argument was, “people will vote for Modiji so when the election is won Modiji will nominate the Chief Minister.”
All this changed after the last general election. Once again, the Prime Minister made himself the issue, fought a highly personal campaign, going from state to state warning Hindus of impending penury if the buffalo-stealing and mangalsutra-snatching Congress won. Candidates were decided by the High Command (i.e. Modi and Amit Shah) and even powerful chief ministers like Yogi Adityanath were unable to secure tickets for their chosen nominees.
As we all remember, this didn’t quite end in tears—the BJP did form the government even if it was denied a Parliamentary majority. But it did not go the way Modi had predicted, which was a massive victory with 400+ seats.
Since then, the BJP has changed the style of its campaigns. During the Haryana election, Modi was hardly visible; perhaps because everyone expected the BJP to lose. As it turned out, his absence did the party no harm: It won the election in a state where it had been written off.
Modi was more visible in the Maharashtra campaign but his popularity and his performance were no longer the primary issues. In Jharkhand, Modi’s influence may actually have been a negative feature for the BJP given how much sympathy and public support JMM’s Hemant Soren seems to have gained after the Modi government put him in jail.
In Maharashtra, the election was fought on the performance of the Eknath Shinde government and the internal splits in the Shiv Sena and the NCP. There was no talk of the Congress taking buffaloes from Hindus and giving them to Muslims—the BJP campaign was much more about state issues. This may have been just as well. At the last general election, despite its inflammatory rhetoric, the BJP lost seats in the state.
In Jharkhand, CM Hemanta Biswa Sarma was sent from Assam to oversee a campaign based on raising Hindu-Muslim animosities. But this stratagem, usually the centrepiece of Modi-era BJP campaigns, completely failed and the BJP lost.
Congress must shift gears
You could conclude that because the so-called Modi Magic may be fading the Opposition will benefit. But this may be too hasty a conclusion. In fact, the change in the rules of engagement actually poses a problem for the Congress.
For several years now the Congress and Rahul Gandhi have hammered away at a single theme: Narendra Modi is a threat to the future of India because he spreads hatred and such fat cats as Gautam Adani benefit from his decisions.
This message may have had some impact in the Lok Sabha election. But just as the Congress began to gain confidence, the BJP reshaped its platform to focus less on the Prime Minister.
If Modi is no longer the most important campaign issue, then how does it matter how much Rahul Gandhi attacks him? Modi may or may not have a communal agenda and he may well facilitate Adani’s business dealings, say voters, but that is not what this election is about.
With the Modi factor given a much lower profile, elections are back to being what they were about in the pre-Modi era. They are won or lost on the basis of local issues, the perceived quality of governance (or how many freebies the government hands out) and the strength of the party organisation.
These are areas where the BJP has always had an advantage. Now that the RSS is playing a more active role in the campaigns, the BJP can also rely on an army of devoted workers. Delhi is now less likely to make every single major decision about the campaign, especially the selection of candidates. One reason why the BJP did not do as well as expected in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha election was that Yogi Adityanath felt slighted by how his recommendations were treated. This time around, Yogi was listened to and the party won most of the by-elections.
When politics returns to old-style elections, the Congress’s vulnerabilities are exposed. In Haryana it lost a sure-thing election because Bhupendra Hooda ignored Selja Kumari, his rival in the state unit, and because the Congress organisation was no match for the power of the combined RSS-BJP army.
In Maharashtra, the Congress is a mess. Rahul Gandhi must take some of the blame for not paying enough attention to the state unit, for letting frustrated loyalists leave in disgust and for promoting unsavoury characters only to see them leave the party eventually.
When Narendra Modi is the issue these weaknesses matter less. When he is not a major factor, the Congress’ problems are out in the open.
One way of looking at these results—and this is the position of most BJP loyalists—is to say that Narendra Modi has turned things around after the disappointment of the Lok Sabha elections. But the reality may be a little more nuanced. If campaigns no longer revolve around the Modi factor, then the prime minister may have lost one of his strongest weapons: his ability to win elections for his party. Equally, the Assembly election results may overestimate the BJP’s national standing. Things may not be so different from the 2024 Lok Sabha election when the next general election comes around because Modi will once again be the primary issue.
What is certain though is that the Congress needs to get its act together if it hopes to replicate its relative success in the Lok Sabha elections in state contests. It will not succeed until it fixes its organisation. And if the Congress starts losing state election after state election, it will lose the momentum and confidence it has gained after the General Election results. One more major defeat and it will start looking once again like the party of perennial losers.
Vir Sanghvi is a print and television journalist, and talk show host. He tweets @virsanghvi. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)
Whatever issue congress come up with BJP is clearly most of the time able to show quite correctly that congress has also done same thing in the past for example the issue of reservation. Rahul gandhi talks about breaking the reservation limit and giving more power to sc, st and obc but it is congress which since independence has been against reservation, their is no sc, st, obc leader in congress which BJP has easily proven. The guarantee that congress gave in karnataka, telangana, Himachal which won them power have also been adopted by BJP so their is nothing with congress to prove that it is better than BJP infact it is worse and the chances of Congress winning are next to nothing against BJP only public anger towards BJP can make congress win which has not reached that level
The only way Congress is relevant in Indian politics is to get rid of the Gandhi family else BJP will carry on forever
CONgress needs to stop listening to charlatans masquerading as journalists, to begin with.
When Vir Sanghvi, a Congress loyalist to the bone, starts questioning Rahul Gandhi, one cannot but wonder where things are headed.
Vir Sanghvi’s pain and hurt at Congress’ misfortunes is quite understandable.