The Russian Arctic continental shelf is one of the world’s most promising territories for hydrocarbon extraction. Preliminary estimates suggest it holds up to 25 per cent of global reserves—a potential energy security guarantee for Europe and beyond for decades to come. Current assessments put the forecast hydrocarbon potential of Russia’s Arctic shelf at roughly 100 billion tonnes of oil equivalent.
Since 2022, India has become one of the most important markets for Russian oil, rapidly rising to become the second-largest buyer after China. Today, it purchases up to 60 per cent of Russia’s seaborne crude exports. India is also the world’s second-largest exporter of refined petroleum products to Europe, meaning Russia-India cooperation now plays a direct role in the energy security of a wide range of countries.
In September 2023, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, attending the Eastern Economic Forum, signalled India’s interest in cooperating with Russia on energy and Arctic matters. Since 2020, India has participated in the Vostok Oil project, developing new oil fields on the Taymyr Peninsula. Crude extracted in northern Krasnoyarsk Krai is expected to be shipped directly to the Chennai port, while Russia’s Rosneft is already investing in refining infrastructure in India.
Another key advantage of the Russian Arctic is the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which is roughly a third shorter than the route via the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal—offering fast, secure delivery of hydrocarbons to market.
This resource base creates the foundation for long-term Russia-India cooperation in the Arctic, with multiplier effects: joint energy projects stimulate NSR development and the socioeconomic growth of coastal regions along the route. India brings substantial financial resources and investment capacity that can support capital-intensive joint Arctic energy projects, while its growing economy offers a stable market for Arctic-extracted hydrocarbons.
At the same time, the technological complexity of Arctic operations calls for international cooperation on transport and logistics—jointly developing an effective strategy for the maritime transport of Arctic hydrocarbons that accounts for economic, social, and environmental factors, and minimises impact on a fragile ecosystem. According to available estimates, each job created in the Arctic generates roughly 14 additional jobs in adjacent regions.
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An Arctic development strategy
For India, participation in joint Arctic energy projects also opens opportunities for scientific research in Arctic waters, work on pollution prevention, polar expeditions, and involvement in infrastructure development. It also means a strengthened geopolitical presence in the region and new markets for Indian-made equipment and technology.
For Russia, India’s involvement diversifies long-term hydrocarbon exports, strengthens energy diplomacy, and—importantly—increases cargo volumes along the Northern Sea Route, one of Russia’s priority development goals. To deepen this, Russia should draw Indian companies into joint ventures, investment funds, R&D, and equipment supply for Arctic operations, while maintaining a favourable investment climate: tax preferences, priority development zones, and institutional guarantees of transparency and stability for Indian investors.
Russia-India cooperation in energy and transport carries real geopolitical weight. The two countries are forming a new pole of attraction in global energy, demonstrating that effective, partnership-based cooperation between them is possible—and using it as a foundation for a broader Arctic development strategy.
Alexey Fadeev is head of the Import Substitution Program at Gazprom Neft and an expert on the Project Office for Arctic Development. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)