What Modi’s guarantee to make India 3rd largest economy means for PM probables Yogi, Shah

Modi’s promise to fulfil everyone’s dreams in his third term is a message to his BJP colleagues not to think too much about his age or the unwritten retirement age of 75 years.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (Image: YouTube/PMO India)

Last Wednesday, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave his “guarantee” to make India one of the “first three economies” of the world, it triggered many. Former finance minister P Chidambaram pointed out that India is ranked fifth in terms of gross domestic product but 128^th in per capita income. “Let’s talk about the per capita income. That’s the true measure of prosperity,” he tweeted. Modi’s party colleague Subramanian Swamy, a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University, wasn’t exactly charitable. “India for the last 20 years at least, on purchasing power parity prices, has been of the third largest GDP and yet Modi says ‘will be third largest’ in the future. Ignorance of economics is widespread in PMO,” Swamy tweeted.

Whatever be the merits of their arguments, the fact is that the substantive part of what Modi said was less about economy and more about politics. He was making a declaration to the people in general and his colleagues in the Bharatiya Janata Party in particular. He was telling them unambiguously about his intent to continue in office till 2029, if not beyond.

Let’s see closely what Modi said on Wednesday: “Third term- top three economy mein pahunch kar rahega Bharat aur yeh Modi ki guarantee hai. Main deshwasiyon ko yeh bhi vishwas dilaoonga ki 2024 ke baad humaare teesare term mein desh ki vikas yatra aur teji se badhegi. Aur mere teesare karyakaal mein aap apne sapne apni aankho ke saamane pure hote dekhenge.” Translated into English, it read: “India will make it to the top three economies in the third term and this is Modi’s guarantee. I assure countrymen that in our third term after 2024, the country’s march to progress will become faster. And, in my third tenure, you will see your dreams being fulfilled before your eyes.”

Modi left nothing for ambiguity or misinterpretation by his party colleagues — ‘Modi’s guarantee’ and ‘my third term’ to fulfil people’s dreams. He has set a new target — people will realise their dreams in his third term as the Prime Minister, that is, by 2029. In 2017, on 75^th anniversary of the Quit India Movement, PM Modi had undertaken the task of creating a New India by 2022 by freeing her of casteism, communalism and corruption.

That was also to be the year by when farmers income would double. By 2022, however, the goalpost shifted in a big way, with the PM promising newer heights for the country and new levels of prosperity during “Amrit Kaal” or 25 years from the 75^th to centenary year of Independence.

In his 83-minute-long Independence Day address in 2022, he used Amrit Kaal 32 times, India Today reported.

The BJP must be realising that Amrit Kaal is too long a period to sustain the interest of voters who seem to be increasingly transactional as is evident from the success of Congress party’s ‘guarantees’ in assembly elections. So, PM Modi has set a much shorter timeframe for them to realise their dreams — his third term only.

But his message on Wednesday was equally targeted at his colleagues. Essentially, Modi was asking them not to think too much about his age or about the unwritten retirement age of 75 years — a criterion he used to pack off many senior leaders who didn’t fit in his scheme of things.

Why Modi delivered the message

As the next Lok Sabha election draws closer, there has been a constant buzz and speculation in the ruling party about when PM Modi may decide to hang up his boots. He will turn 75 on 17 September 2025. Would he follow the unwritten maximum age limit of 75 years? Or, would he wait till the next Presidential election in 2027? In either scenario, who would be his successor? Nobody in the BJP would dare ask him these questions but they have kept popping up in private conversations among party leaders. Prime Minister Modi wouldn’t be unaware of that. The speculation about his probable successors has been in public domain for long. When everybody starts wondering for how long the party’s most popular face and biggest vote-catcher would continue in office, it starts manifesting in different forms. Instead of working for the present, ambitious leaders start preparing for the future. Depending on their understanding and assessment, they start ingratiating themselves with one future PM probable or the other. Groupism and factionalism become the order of the day. State satraps who might be lying low for years for fear of the supreme leader’s wrath start asserting themselves. Leaders’ focus shifts from political adversaries to internal rivals. Governance and politics start witnessing policy paralysis and confusion in decision-making is marked by U-turns. And mediocrities start calling the shots.

Goes without saying that the BJP has started showing some, if not most, of these manifestations. A brilliant politician and administrator that Prime Minister Modi is, he would be the first one to notice them. And, therefore, he needed to send a clear message — ‘Relax. I am not going anywhere any time soon.’

What it means to Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath

Now that Modi has made it clear that if the BJP wins again in 2024, there will be no vacancy for the PM till 2029, it will be interesting to see how things pan out for two putative successors—union home minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath. There are obvious reasons why they are seen as PM probables. For Shah, it’s decades of loyalty to Modi—right since his Gujarat chief ministerial days. For Yogi, it’s his emergence as a mass leader who draws crowds not just in Uttar Pradesh but across the country. The UP CM has emerged as a tough and development-oriented administrator, too. Like Modi, he has a clean image and has sacrificed family life for public service. Like Modi again, the so-called ‘Hindu voters’ rally behind Yogi.

So, what does it mean for Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath to wait for six more years to get a shot at the most coveted post in India? Age is not an issue for either of them. Shah is 58 years old. Yogi is seven years younger to him. They can wait. The Union home minister’s strongest point, apart from his loyalty to Modi, is his grip on the BJP organisation. BJP president JP Nadda’s sympathisers often complain that he is unfairly criticised for the party’s failures because it’s Shah who is the de facto chief. Nadda can’t even select his own team. See how he had to retain Kailash Vijayavargiya as national general secretary when he reconstituted his team on Saturday. After his failure as West Bengal in-charge and criticism of his style of functioning by Bengali leaders, Vijayavargiya general secretary was divested of the state’s charge. For the last one year, he has been without the charge of any state — an unprecedented record for any party general secretary in history. Yet, when Nadda reconstituted his team, he retained Vijayavargiya ostensibly because the latter is an Amit Shah loyalist. That’s the kind of grip Amit Shah has on the party organisation over three years after he quit as president.

Shah’s innings as the Union home minister might look a bit chequered — mishandling of Manipur crisis, 2020 Delhi riots, to name just a couple — but he is seen as a tough administrator. Although it was during Rajnath Singh’s tenure as the home minister that the government had laid the groundwork for the invalidation of Article 370, Shah was credited for pushing it through Parliament and maintaining relative peace in Kashmir. Although Shah is not seen as a mass leader, he is trying hard to change that perception. In the past few months, he has been addressing public meetings and rallies across the country.

As a BJP legislator told this writer: “It’s true that Amit Shah ji is one of the finest election strategists. But for MPs and MLAs like us, what matters is who can get us votes like Modi ji does. When Yogi ji comes, lots of people come to listen to him. But when we are asked to organise rallies of other leaders, we have to spend so much time and money to bring people.” Many other MPs and MLAs from across the country echo similar views whenever I broach this subject to them. Yogi Adityanath does seem to have a fan following among leaders who need votes.

It’s this perception that Amit Shah may want to change in the next six years. For Yogi, the prospects of Modi being in the saddle for six more years are promising. He has undertaken the task of transforming UP in terms of development by 2027. He seems to be right on course so far. If he succeeds in bringing about that transformation and gets a third term as UP CM in 2027, the road to Delhi will become much smoother and faster. After all, it was not the BJP organisation or the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh who propelled Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi to Delhi in 2013-14. As it happened, it was Modi who first staked claim for the top job and the BJP and the RSS couldn’t but rally behind him.

At this point, if someone were to point out that I am talking about the stakes for Shah and Yogi in 2029 as if 2024 election verdict was already out, I would only say ‘mea culpa’. No, I am not ruling out anything in 2024. I am only trying to analyse PM Modi’s speech on Wednesday and its implications for his putative successors. One may also ask why I should focus on only two contenders when the prime ministerial race starts six years from now—that is, if PM Modi doesn’t change the deadline again. Well, I can’t rule out wild card entries— say, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Devendra Fadnavis— but there are reasons why they may have to watch the 2029 race from the spectator gallery. That’s a story for another day though.

Views are personal.

(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)