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U-turn, indecision, half measures—what ails Modi govt and why PM must listen to Gen Naravane

The former Army chief’s cart-before-the-horse remark was in the context of theaterisation but it’s much relevant in all sectors of governance today.

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In July last year, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh announced setting up of the joint theatre commands, a process that had started with the appointment of the chief of defence staff in 2020. Hailed as the biggest military reforms initiated by the Narendra Modi government, theaterisation is essentially about tri-Services synergy to deal with future security challenges.

Five months later, on Thursday, General M.M. Naravane, India’s Army chief till April, did some much-needed plain speaking. Talking about theaterisation before putting a national security strategy and a national defence strategy in place is “just putting the cart before the horse”, said the former Army chief. It was in 2018 that the government had set up a defence planning committee chaired by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to formulate a national security and defence strategies that General Naravane spoke about. Not much has been heard about that committee report and follow-up action, if any. In the meantime, the political executive has gone about tom-tomming its ambitious military reforms. General Naravane virtually held up a mirror to them Thursday.

The former Army chief’s cart-before-the-horse remark was in the context of defence forces but it’s much relevant in all sectors of governance today. There are many, many instances of half measures, vacillations, diffidence, and indecisiveness in governance — nothing less than a sacrilege in a government run by a prime minister whose USP is decisiveness. Let me quickly cite just about a dozen.


Also read: UPA-2 faced the same economic issues Modi govt does now. But there’s one difference


OBC to EWS, quota to Census

In September 2018, after a high-level meeting presided over by then-home minister Rajnath Singh, the government announced its intention to collect OBC data in the 2021 Census.

Three years later, the home ministry made a U-turn, telling the Lok Sabha that as a matter of government policy, there would be no caste-wise enumeration. 

In 2017, the Centre made a grand announcement about setting up Justice G Rohini-headed commission for “sub-categorisation” of OBCs. The objective was to help marginalised sections of the backward castes who didn’t get “any major benefit” of reservation. It was expected to benefit the BJP, too. Economically and politically dominant castes usually corner most of the reservation benefits. Sub-categorising OBCs would help the BJP expand its influence among non-dominant OBCs. The party, however, soon realised that dominant OBCs — Yadavs in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh — were also getting attracted to it. Sub-categorisation would alienate them from the BJP.

Therefore, the Rohini Commission that was mandated to submit its report in 12 weeks hasn’t submitted it even after five years. It has been given 13 extensions so far. There will be more because the BJP is caught in a bind.

Parliament passed the legislation to give constitutional status to the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) in 2018. The Modi government has done what the Congress never did, thundered BJP leaders then. Four years later, the NCBC has been virtually forgotten. After a gap of about nine months, it got its chairperson last November. But the government hasn’t filled the vacancies of members and vice-chairperson since February last year.

Weeks before the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Centre announced 10 per cent reservation for economically weaker section (EWS) in general category. It didn’t conduct any survey to identify the potential beneficiaries before making the announcement. In November 2022, the Supreme Court finally upheld the EWS quota legislation but not before expressing misgivings about the 10 per cent ceiling and Rs 8 lakh annual income criterion that the government fixed almost arbitrarily. Around six weeks after the court verdict, the BJP-led government in Assam did away with the EWS quota in jobs.

And about seven weeks after that, last week, the BJP-led government in Karnataka said that the proportion of population eligible for EWS quota was only four per cent and therefore the government would redistribute the remaining six per cent among Vokkaligas and Lingayats.

The Modi government is developing cold feet over revising the annual income ceiling for OBC creamy layer. In March 2019, it had formed a committee under B.P. Sharma to review the existing Rs 8 lakh ceiling as also the criteria. The committee recommended an increase to Rs 12 lakh and also the inclusion of salary in calculating the income. A Cabinet proposal was made to effect the recommended changes. Ahead of the Uttar Pradesh assembly election, it was put on the back burner.

The social justice and empowerment ministry is holding consultations on these issues all over again.

There are lots of questions about the 2021 Census. Has it been shelved? If not, when will it start? The government offers no answers. It claimed earlier that no field activities for enumeration could be undertaken due to the pandemic. There have been several elections since then. There is no word on the Census yet. This means that the entire policy planning of the government of India is based on over a decade-long population figures.

There is no consumption expenditure data since 2011-12 because the government junked the 2017-18 survey that was reported to have indicated a lower consumption level than earlier. The absence of this crucial data puts a question mark on the accuracy of official inflation figures, especially of consumer price index (CPI).


Also read: Indira Gandhi began it, now Modi, Kejriwal swallow taxpayer money for self-promotion


Backtracking on lawmaking

What’s happening with the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)? Hindus left out of the Assam NRC (National Register of Citizens) saw a shield in the CAA but its rules haven’t been notified yet, three years after Parliament cleared it. Parliamentary committees on subordinate legislation have given seven extensions to the government to frame the rules and may have to give an eighth one in January. Matuas, estimated 15 million in West Bengal, voted overwhelmingly for the BJP in the last Lok Sabha and assembly elections, hoping to get citizenship. They are getting restless now that the Centre is dithering over CAA rules.

So, what’s holding the Centre back? It can’t be the anti-CAA agitations in the past or what Gulf nations and Western countries may think about it. The Narendra Modi government isn’t known to be deterred by these considerations. Nobody in the government or the party is, however, coming out to clarify specific reasons for the three-year-long delay in framing the CAA rules — or for the sudden Assam delimitation decision, for that matter.

It was in September 2020 that the Centre had notified four labour codes. They were projected as a testimony to the government’s appetite for reforming labour laws. Those codes still remain on paper because the rules have not been notified yet. The Centre has sought to blame the states for the delay.

The fact is that the inter-state council that’s mandated to ensure Centre-state and inter-state coordination and cooperation hasn’t met after July 2016 despite many chief ministers writing to PM Modi to hold its regular meetings. Last May, the government reconstituted the council and appointed Amit Shah as chairman of its standing committee. That was the last time one heard from the government about the council even as it keeps ruing the purported lack of cooperation from states.

PM Modi expressed concerns about “population explosion” from the ramparts of the Red Fort in 2019. There hasn’t been any follow-up to that even as BJP MPs keep raising the need for population control through private members’ bills in Parliament.

The Modi government might have made some U-turns on major issues such as amendments to the Land Acquisition Act in 2015 and the controversial farm laws in late 2021. But that was under immense public pressure. What is more worrisome is the hurry with which the Modi government announces decisions — OBC census or OBC sub-categorisation, CAA, EWS quota, etc — only to backtrack or put them in a limbo. That betrays lack of clarity and foresight, ad hocism, and arbitrariness. For a government whose USP is said to be decisiveness, such ambiguity, irresoluteness, indecisions and half measures seem to be completely out of character.

PM Modi obviously has a lot to do in 2023 to arrest this trend in governance. And it’s a long to-do list. He may want to start with General Naravane’s advice and tell his ministers to put the horse before the cart.

Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)

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