Why would a Union Cabinet minister contest an Assembly election in which his party is a marginal player and the chief ministerial chair is seemingly out of bounds? Many in Bihar political circles are looking for an answer after food processing industries minister Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) declared on Sunday that he would contest the upcoming Assembly election. It’s not casual political bravado, for sure. Look at the way he bounced back from a hopeless political situation after the death of his father, Ram Vilas Paswan, and desertion by his uncle and other party MPs. The 42-year-old leader has a wise head on young shoulders.
So, what is he up to? He was evasive when I asked him a couple of weeks back about the speculation around him contesting the Assembly poll. His party colleagues were thinking that it would bolster the party’s prospects, he said. Plausible but not very convincing. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is crowded in Bihar. Given that the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United) are likely to contest around a hundred seats each, barely 35-40 remaining seats in the 243-member Assembly would be available for the other NDA constituents. This includes Paswan’s LJP, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha. Paswan would, of course, get a lion’s share of these remaining seats, but that’s still not big enough for him to harbour large ambitions and enter the poll fray.
The LJP has said that Paswan will contest from a general, not a reserved seat. He is looking to expand his party’s support base beyond the six per cent Paswan votebank. But there is more to it than meets the eye. One must go back 20 years to understand why Nitish Kumar would be wary of Paswan’s moves in Bihar.
In the February 2005 Assembly elections, Ram Vilas Paswan ended the Lalu Yadav family’s 15-year rule. Three constituents of then ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) contested separately—the LJP, the Congress and Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal. Paswan senior fielded candidates against the RJD, but not against the Congress. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, the LJP with 29 seats, and the Congress with 10. If they came together, Lalu-Rabri’s 15-year reign could have continued with the support of smaller parties. The NDA secured 92 seats. With 122 being the majority mark, Ram Vilas Paswan emerged as the kingmaker. He declared that he would join hands “neither with the communal BJP nor with the corrupt and casteist RJD”.
He said he would support a Muslim chief minister. He knew Lalu wouldn’t agree. Ram Vilas forced a fresh election that brought Nitish Kumar as the CM, ending Lalu Yadav’s reign.
Also read: BJP has a new Muslim strategy up its sleeve. Saugat-e-Modi isn’t just about Bihar election
What’s happening now
Cut to 2020. Declaring himself as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hanuman, Chirag Paswan went after Nitish Kumar in the Assembly election, fielding candidates in constituencies where the JD(U) was contesting. Paswan didn’t field candidates against the BJP, just as his father had stayed away from constituencies contested by the Congress 20 years ago. His party won only one seat in 2020 but was instrumental in the defeat of the JD(U) candidates in three dozen seats. Nitish Kumar was smarting as the JD(U) ended up with a mere 43 seats and the BJP emerged as the big brother with 74 seats. Nitish managed to become the CM, though.
Now, in 2025, Prime Minister Modi’s self-proclaimed Hanuman is in his Cabinet at the Centre. Paswan and Kumar are both part of the NDA. He has often praised the CM from public platforms. But that’s hardly assuring for Nitish Kumar. Only last week, Paswan shot off a letter to the Bihar CM, targeting the state administration for the gang rape and murder of a nine-year-old Dalit girl in Muzaffarpur. “This horrific crime is not only the brutal killing of an innocent life but also highlights a deep breakdown in law and order, social consciousness, and the public health system of Bihar,” wrote Chirag Paswan.
Nitish Kumar couldn’t have expected a more scathing indictment of his administration even from the Opposition.
So, what is Chirag Paswan up to? His declaration to contest the election has come ahead of the seat-sharing negotiations. In 2020, the LJP got more votes than the JD(U) in 32 seats. Paswan would obviously stake a claim for these seats and more. Nitish Kumar would find it difficult to assert. His party had a very poor strike rate in 2020; it could win only 43 out of 115 seats that it contested. The BJP did much better—74 out of 110. So, who should give up seats if Chirag’s demand has to be accommodated? Nitish Kumar, obviously. It may or may not happen, given Kumar’s indispensability for the NDA in this election. But seat-sharing is just the beginning.
Think of a scenario when Nitish Kumar ends up with less than 43 MLAs in the 2025 elections, the BJP maintains its 2020 strike rate, and Chirag Paswan’s party ends up with 20-odd seats. Like his Late father in 2005, Chirag would emerge as the kingmaker. Goes without saying that the LJP chief would like to end Nitish Kumar’s reign, just as his father ended Lalu’s.
In this hypothetical scenario, Kumar would obviously threaten to return to Lalu’s camp if the numbers add up and if Lalu is willing to prop him up as the CM again. There are too many ifs here. And if Lalu Yadav is not willing to oblige Kumar, the BJP, with Paswan’s backing, would love to realise its long-cherished dream of having its own CM in Bihar. Let’s not overlook the fact that Nitish Kumar of 2025 wouldn’t be in a position to keep his flock together if the BJP were to mount an offensive. Most of the top JD(U) leaders have worked very closely with the BJP.
What if Chirag Paswan also has the numbers to take the opposition mahagathbandhan’s tally to the majority mark? After all, Paswan has maintained a ‘brotherly’ relationship with Tejashwi, too. One can argue that Paswans are usually antagonistic to the RJD’s core votebank, and so, Chirag is a better fit in the NDA. He also has a Cabinet berth at the Centre. But politics is all about possibilities. At least, that’s what the BJP interlocutors would tell Nitish Kumar if Chirag happens to be in a kingmaker’s role.
Think of all these scenarios. You can’t blame Bihari politicians if they see Modi’s Hanuman’s tail on fire as he enters the Bihar poll fray.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)