What lies in store for Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and Raman Singh now that voting is over in their states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh? The message from the BJP high command has been clear: They should ride off into the sunset — even into the Chambal ravines, if they wish to. That’s what the ‘collective leadership’ refrain was supposed to convey.
But would they? Chouhan, 64, is too young for that. Raje of the Scindia royal family, 70, can’t be dictated. Singh, 71, is known to keep his own counsel, but his show of equanimity can be beguiling. If the BJP registers resounding victories in their states, they will have no choice other than deferring to the high command’s wish and hoping for generous rehabilitation packages or deals.
Scenarios and implications
There are two other scenarios, though. First, the BJP wins but by a whisker, or there is a fractured verdict. That’s the best scenario for these veterans. The BJP would have to fall back on them to form and run the government. There is no other leader in any of these states with the stature and clout to provide a stable government in such a scenario. That should also explain why Raje campaigned for her loyalists on at least 60 out of 200 seats even though the central leadership didn’t show much interest in engaging her in the campaign.
Aside, that’s the best scenario for Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot, too. With 96 MLAs in the 200-member assembly in 2008, he ran a stable government. That was one of the reasons the Congress high command had to ignore Sachin Pilot’s claims and fall back on Gehlot in 2018 when the party fell one short of the majority mark.
Look at the second scenario for the BJP veterans—that is, the party’s loss in these elections. This would come as vindication for these veterans. Such results would prove that the high command might have committed a blunder by publicly undermining them with the collective leadership slogan. The BJP central leadership would then go overboard to mollify and reward them. Remember what happened in Karnataka? The high command forced BS Yediyurappa to quit as the chief minister and kept undermining him till the BJP suffered a setback in the assembly election. Alarmed by the results in Karnataka that had elected 26 BJP MPs (including one BJP-backed independent) in 2019 general elections, the BJP high command has bent over backwards to please BSY by appointing his son, Vijayendra, the party’s state unit chief, and his loyalist, R Ashoka, the leader of opposition in the assembly. Raje, Chouhan, and Singh must have watched the Karnataka developments quite eagerly.
Now look at the BJP high command’s options. Resounding victories in these states would, of course, enable them to go for generational change in leadership. But what if the party loses or there is a hung house? The situation in Karnataka was different. The BJP’s mainstay in the southern state has been BSY, or the Lingayat vote bank he controls. If one goes by past records, many BJP leaders who thought they had grown bigger than the party had to eat humble pie after rebellion – Kalyan Singh and Uma Bharti, to name just two. Yeddiyurappa was the only leader who rebelled to ensure BJP’s defeat in the assembly election. That was the reason Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to reach out to him and bring him back into the party fold after becoming the party’s PM candidate.
Also read: Why projecting PM Modi as BJP’s face in assembly polls is a risky gambit
What would the Modi-Shah approach be?
The question here is: Would Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah go all out to mollify Chouhan, Raje, and Singh the same way if the results of these assembly elections aren’t up to their expectations? My colleague, Amogh Rohmetra, reported from the ground in Rajasthan that even though Raje remained a popular mass leader, her supporters were equally hooked on the BJP and PM Modi. That she might not be the CM’s choice wouldn’t change their voting preferences.
The way the BJP maintained its domination in the 2019 Lok Sabha election in these states after losing in the 2018 assembly polls suggested that, unlike southern states, northern states are swung by the Modi factor. Besides, even if there emerged big mass leaders in northern states, they didn’t grow beyond the party. Bharti might have led the BJP to victory in the 2003 assembly election, but once she was replaced as the CM—first with Babulal Gaur and then with Chouhan—the people accepted the party’s decision. That’s why Bharti’s rebellion fizzled out.
In Rajasthan, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat was the Jan Sangh and the BJP’s face for decades. The BJP meant Shekhawat in Rajasthan then. In 2002, as part of the strategy to carry out generational change in leadership, Shekhawat was shifted to Delhi as the Vice-President of India, and Raje was brought in as state BJP chief. In 2003, she helped the BJP secure a majority on its own in the assembly for the first time ever.
It’s another thing that in those days, such changes were carried out in consultation with the leaders who had to make way. Raje was brought in with Shekhawat’s consent. The two fell out later as she sought to get out of his shadow. His son-in-law, Narpat Singh Rajvi, became a minister in her government, but he was never her favourite then. Incidentally, two decades later, in the 2023 assembly election, Rajvi was denied a ticket from his Vidyadhar Nagar constituency, reportedly because of his loyalty to Raje. Sensing rebellion, the high command nominated him from another seat later.
Coming back to the main point, given that the Modi wave is known to sweep Lok Sabha polls in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, would the BJP high command go ahead with its plan to marginalise Raje, Chouhan, and Singh, regardless of the results on 3 December? The answer is: Yes, if the BJP wins convincingly. But no, if the results are mixed or adverse. That’s because Modi and Shah are getting risk-averse in the run-up to 2024.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)