‘Akhilesh-Vakhilesh’ aside, Telangana Muslims will determine Congress’ place in INDIA

The AIMIM and the BRS, though never in an alliance, are the closest allies. KCR virtually stays away from Owaisi's turf, Hyderabad; the latter supports the ruling party elsewhere.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addresses a public meeting at Kalwakurthy ahead of the upcoming Telangana Assembly election, in Nagarkurnool district | PTI

Back in contention in Telangana, thanks to the Bharatiya Janata Party suddenly showing withdrawal symptoms, the Congress has had its creative juices flowing again. Targeting the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi, the party recently tweeted a wedding card with the hashtag #BRSLOVESBJP. It mentioned the date of marriage as 30 November when the state goes to polls and the venue as Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao’s farmhouse. As for dowry, the invitation card said, K Kavitha, KCR’s daughter and legislator, will not be arrested in the Delhi liquor scam. There would be “saat pheras” on demonetisation, Kaleshwaram irrigation project, no CBI inquiry into paper leaks and Bandi Sanjay Kumar’s replacement with G Kishan Reddy as the state BJP chief, among others.

The Congress’ wedding invitation card was only the latest — showing a bit of humour, for a change — in a heated campaign Telangana has been witnessing this election season. The Congress accuses the BRS and Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) of being the BJP’s B and C teams, respectively. In an interview with ThePrint, BRS’ Kavitha returned the compliment, asking why Rahul Gandhi hasn’t been arrested in the National Herald case.

There is a reason why the Congress is attempting to make the BRS guilty by association with the BJP. It’s the Muslim votebank. Muslims constitute around 13 per cent of the population and are said to swing results in about one-third of the 119 Assembly constituencies. What’s interesting is the way the Congress is aggressively wooing Muslims in Telangana. It’s taking the AIMIM head on. Rahul Gandhi has accused Owaisi’s party of taking money from the BJP to field candidates in states.

Gandhis and Owaisi

While there is nothing new about Congress leaders painting the AIMIM as the BJP’s B team, it’s arguably the first time that a Gandhi has made a frontal attack on Owaisi’s party. There was a time when the Gandhis had a great rapport with the Hyderabad MP. In fact, when the Congress was weighing the option of bifurcating Andhra Pradesh, Owaisi had told Sonia Gandhi in as many words that it was a bad idea even though he would gain from the BJP’s rise as a corollary.

After the AIMIM had withdrawn support from the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), the Congress kept wooing him back. In the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Sonia Gandhi had sent senior leader Digvijaya Singh to Hyderabad to meet Owaisi and woo him back. To keep his meeting a secret, Owaisi had come on a Bullet motorcycle and entered Singh’s hotel with the helmet on. It’s another matter that Singh had then kept him waiting for a couple of hours, which had further convinced Owaisi about his decision not to go with the Congress, this reporter had reliably learnt then. As Owaisi started contesting elections in other states, eating into the Congress’ traditional Muslim votes, the two parties drifted away further with bitterness creeping in. The Gandhis never directly attacked him though — until Rahul went after him in Telangana early last month.

Change in Congress’ minority politics

The former Congress president’s attack on the AIMIM came as a strong indication of the Congress changing its strategy vis-à-vis the Muslims. On Thursday, Telangana Congress released Minority Declaration, promising a host of sops and incentives for the minorities. In his report on the party’s 2014 Lok Sabha debacle, AK Antony had cited public perception about the Congress doing minority appeasement. Subsequent months and years saw the Congress and its leaders, especially the Gandhis, going for an image makeover to assert a pro-Hindu identity. They also looked diffident when it came to raising issues concerning Muslims. Karnataka assembly election in which Muslims abandoned the Janata Dal (Secular) to vote for the Congress seemed to have led the party to recalibrate its minority strategy. That’s getting reflected in the party’s aggression in wooing the Muslims in Telangana. There are reasons for the Congress to feel optimistic about its approach.

Muhabbat ki dukaan

As I was trying to negotiate my way through the bustling market outside Charminar in Hyderabad last week, a recorded voice kept playing: “Muhabbat ki mithee sharbat bees rupee mein, bees rupee mein.” Curious shoppers got drawn to the stall where a glass of sweet drink of muhabbat or love was offered for Rs 20. It’s a blend of mashed watermelon and milk with ice. Anup Gopalrao Patil, the seller, wouldn’t call it Mohabbat ki Dukaan, a catchphrase coined by Rahul Gandhi during his Bharat Jodo Yatra. Patil claimed to have nothing to do with politics. If Gandhi’s slogan helped bring curious customers, why not?

A few metres away, Sheikh Ezaz, selling embroidery sarees, stressed that Asaduddin Owaisi took “Allah ki kasam” about having nothing to do with the BJP. According to him, the MIM is the best and KCR also doesn’t discriminate on the basis of religion. “But the Congress will be the best at the Centre,” he said. My interactions with Muslims in Hyderabad suggested that Asaduddin Owaisi remained the undisputed Sultan there. Beyond Hyderabad though, winds of change were palpable.

Mohammad Shafiuddin, Imam of Aslami masjid in Karimnagar, about 165 km north of Hyderabad, was vocal in his support for the Congress this time. “Owaisi is making a fool of Muslims. He is dividing them to support the BJP. No Congressman has met me but Rahul Gandhi has dil se dil milaane ka kaam kiya hai. Divided Muslim votes is the reason for the BJP coming to power (at the Centre),” he told ThePrint. Our interactions during pitstops on the 165 km stretch suggested growing interest and support for the Congress among Muslims even though a section of them preferred the BRS in the Assembly election for being “non-discriminatory” and protecting their interests.

The AIMIM and the BRS, though never in a formal alliance, are the closest allies for all practical purposes. KCR virtually stays away from Owaisi’s turf, Hyderabad, while the latter supports the ruling party elsewhere. The AIMIM chief who has fielded nine candidates in Telangana in this election — seven of them in Hyderabad — is quite vocal in his support for the BRS and opposition to the Congress this time, too.

Muslim votes and INDIA

Telangana assembly election results, especially in terms of how the Muslims vote for the Congress, will have a strong bearing on INDIA. The 28-party alliance is showing cracks shortly after its birth. Many INDIA constituents, including the Samajwadi Party, the Janata Dal (United) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), have entered the fray in Madhya Pradesh, queering the pitch for the Congress. Kamal Nath’s curt “chhodo Akhilesh Vakhilesh” comment to dismiss the SP chief’s grouse against the Congress have riled many INDIA constituents, putting a question mark on the future of the opposition alliance.

Regional parties are obviously out in the electoral fray to flex their muscle and prove their damage potential to the Congress. While the Congress’ performance in these Assembly elections would have a bearing on its dominant position in INDIA and how regional parties treat it, they would be watching the Telangana developments more keenly to see if the Muslims are consolidating behind the Congress.

The bitter truth for the Congress is that parties like the SP, the AAP, the JD(U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal, and the Trinamool Congress, among others, indulge the grand old party for its loyal Muslim votes or whatever is left of them. There was a time when the Congress used to get the lion’s share of these votes but the situation has changed over the past three decades. In many states, regional parties have become the preferred choice for the Muslims.

Post-poll survey of the 2019 Lok Sabha election showed that while Muslims voted overwhelming for the Congress in states with bipolar politics, they shifted their allegiance to the regional parties wherever they were stronger. For instance, 73 per cent of the Muslims voted for the SP-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance in Uttar Pradesh. 40 per cent of the Muslims had voted for the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal in 2014 Lok Sabha election, which went up to 70 per cent in 2019. 60 per cent of the Muslims had voted for the Congress in Telangana in 2014, which came down to 42 per cent in 2019. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now BRS) was the preferred choice of 43 per cent Muslims in 2019, CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey showed.

As the Congress’ hold on Muslim votes seemed slackening in multi-cornered contests in several states, so did its influence in the opposition camp. Karnataka assembly elections last year showed the Congress bouncing back as Muslims abandoned the JD(S) to avoid a split in their votes that benefited the BJP. If Telangana assembly elections show a similar trend, it would force regional parties in INDIA to swallow their pride and accept the Congress’ big brotherly status in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. ‘If’ is a keyword here, of course.

Views are personal

(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)