In the days following the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the Enforcement Directorate, the Aam Aadmi Party’s internal surveys showed that it had a ‘positive’ impact. Party insiders say that the ‘sympathy factor’ gave it a three per cent ‘bump’ in its popularity rating in the national capital. And that’s when it decided to bring CM Kejriwal’s wife, Sunita Kejriwal, to the fore. From the second week of April, the internal surveys suggested, the sympathy factor started waning as Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched an anti-Muslim tirade. It started with his attack on Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav eating non-vegetarian food during Sawan and Navratri, a trait he associated with the Mughal mentality.
In subsequent days, the PM went ballistic with his anti-Muslim fusillade, claiming that the Congress wanted to give the minorities Hindus’ mangalsutra, cash-in-canisters, wealth, reservation and whatnot. Many linked it with low voter turnout, rekindling hopes of the Opposition parties and liberal intelligentsia. They saw frustration and panic in Modi’s anti-Muslim remarks.
AAP strategists were not taken though. Their surveys showed that Modi’s anti-Muslim pitch was beginning to swing voters. The three-percent sympathy bump was petering out faster. Then came the hope that Kejriwal could finally get bail. It would take the sting out of the AAP’s ‘jail ka jawab vote se denge (we will counter jail with votes)’ campaign. But AAP leaders were still confident that he would find the language to counter Modi. In three days since his release on bail, Kejriwal seems to have more than met their expectations. Look at the promptness and vehemence with which top Bharatiya Janata Party leaders came out to rebut the claim that PM Modi would retire when he turns 75 on 17 September 2025 and was, therefore, campaigning for Union home minister Amit Shah to become the PM. The AAP chief also said that Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath would be removed within two months if Modi wins.
Shah was quick to clarify that the BJP’s constitution had no 75-year age ceiling; Modi would complete his full term and also lead the country in the future. Predictably, AAP leaders and their associated X handles burst with old video clips where Shah was seen speaking about the party’s 75-year age limit. Some even showed former Gujarat CM Anandiben Patel citing the same reason for her resignation.
Killing five birds with one stone
So, what explains this brainwave that Kejriwal got while he was idling away in jail? By raising the now-disputed age ceiling purportedly fixed by PM Modi in 2014 and wading into the succession debate, the AAP’s national convenor is seeking to kill five birds with one stone.
First, he is trying to corner Modi over the unwritten, unofficial age ceiling. It’s like a damned-if-you-do-and-damned-if-you-don’t predicament for the PM. If there was no age limit, why were so many veteran leaders sidelined—LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, and Anandiben Patel, among several others?
And if there is an unofficial age limit, is Modi seeking an exception for himself? Either way, PM Modi would be projected by his adversaries as a power-driven leader who first got rid of leaders who devoted their lives to the party and is now trying to cling on to the PM’s chair for as long as he can. It will be a blow to the image of a leader who is known for being selfless—to the extent that he wouldn’t allow his family members to stay with him.
Second, the AAP chief is wading into the succession debate to drive a wedge between Modi’s putative successors—Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath. They are considered heirs apparent for different reasons: Shah because of the role he played in making Modi what he is today. And for his complete grip on the organisation that enabled him to have his loyalists in key positions in the party as well as in state and central governments. Yogi is considered a successor because of his mass appeal – regarded as second only to Modi’s among BJP leaders.
That the two aren’t the best of friends is a well-known secret in BJP circles—a factor that Kejriwal is seeking to use to drive a wedge between them. It’s also because of this perception that has given rise to all kinds of speculative stories, especially when Shah has been campaigning across the country while Yogi is largely confined to UP, unlike in 2019 when he campaigned extensively across the country.
These conspiracy theories are a bit misplaced though. BJP insiders say that there were demands for 200 meetings by Yogi across the country. He has, however, chosen to focus on UP to achieve PM Modi’s ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ goal, a state BJP leader close to the CM tells me. From 27 March to 6 May, he had 100 rallies and roadshows, out of which 26 were outside UP. Given the BJP’s high stakes in UP, Yogi’s decision to focus on his state is understandable. What’s inexplicable, however, is the silence of BJP leaders on Kejriwal’s claim about Yogi’s potential removal two months after the Lok Sabha election. This stands in stark contrast to their rush to rebut the Delhi CM’s claim about BJP’s age ceiling, and Modi passing on the baton to Shah next year.
Third, Kejriwal has sought to tap into the growing discomfort in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and its affiliates at two levels – personality cult at the ideological level and eroding authority at the practical level. They are happy about having the most ideologically committed government that has fulfilled the RSS’ core agendas. But, with such a popular Prime Minister at the helm, the Sangh has little or no say in the government-run by swayamsevaks and pracharaks. The fact is that the 75-year ceiling was originally the RSS’ idea as it sought to have younger officer-bearers who would understand and connect better with Gen-next.
RSS sarsanghchalak (patron) Mohan Bhagwat is said to be a strong advocate of this age ceiling. Bhagwat, who is six days older than Modi, turns 75 on 11 September next year and may decide to step down then. If that happens, all eyes will be on Modi, the Sangh’s most celebrated face, to see what he does six days later.
That’s probably the context in which Kejriwal was talking about a possible power transfer on 17 September 2025. PM Modi has, however, made it clear – not in as many words though – that he is in for a long haul and is looking to make India the third-largest economy by the end of his next term.
Fourth, by talking about Modi’s retirement and Yogi’s removal, Kejriwal is seeking to create doubts in the minds of their fans. The AAP CM, I guess, thinks that Modi-Yogi fans may not be very enthusiastic about Shah, who is essentially a political strategist par excellence. It’s all about seeding doubts in the BJP voters’ minds.
Fifth, Kejriwal’s remarks are an indirect acknowledgement that the Opposition can’t fight against Modi. Attacking him would be counter-productive. So, attack the supporting ecosystem around him. The BJP is an extremely cohesive unit when it comes to backing Modi. But the party has been witnessing a lot of dissension from within, of late, thanks to the sidelining of many veteran leaders and denial of tickets to a large number of MPs and MLAs in elections. Kejriwal is trying to fish in troubled waters.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
Dear DK Singh, Forget about what Kejriwal will gain from his statements, please say whether his statements are not true. In no uncertain terms Modi made it very clear that BJP leaders above 75 should only be mentors and retire from active politics. “Marg Darshak Mandal” was created with that objective. The public support to BJP and Modi is on the wane. How much will people tolerate the environment of anger, hatred and polarization which is negative, bad and sinful.
Is Khujliwal even capable of killing even one bird? Forget about five. Does his influence extend beyond Tihar these days?