Threat of invasion by big powers is increasingly dominating the global geopolitical landscape. Russia’s military has been postured against Ukraine for several months and China continues its military preparations and threatening moves against Taiwan, Senkaku Islands of Japan, several disputed islands in the South China Sea and on the India-China border. Ukraine and Taiwan stand apart as targets with the threat that can take the form of an invasion where military forces could seize territory with a view to either install friendly governments or incorporate the regions as their own provinces.
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Russia and Ukraine
Probably, in the Russian scheme of things, the installation of a friendly government in Ukraine could resolve a major security concern and even open up the subsequent possibility of Ukraine becoming part of the Russian Federation. Invasion in any form will hinge on the support of a major part of the Ukrainian population of nearly 44 million consisting of nearly 79 per cent Ukrainians and 18 per cent of the populace of Russian origin. Ukraine is also the second biggest country in terms of surface area in Europe, after Russia.
Considering the domestic milieu of Ukraine, Russia could find it challenging to install a friendly government and even if it does, there is the possibility that an armed uprising by the Ukrainians could raise the costs for Moscow, costs that its economy can ill afford. Also, NATO cohesion could be deepened and with western economic sanctions, a given, it could make the entire Ukrainian venture a losing proposition.
Continuation of military coercion and keeping it alive till some manner of resolution through dialogue is reached could be Russia’s game plan. The mixed signals regarding Russia’s thinning out of some of its military forces is indicative of the game plan. Dialogue, with the gun pointed at Ukraine, is expected to deliver better results. From the Russian narrative, their actions are legitimised because of a long list of broken assurances and agreements like Minsk I and 2.
On 21 February 2021, Russia signed decrees recognising the separatists controlled regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. A major political escalation move that opens doors for invasion.
With military forces mobilised on both sides, spiced with nuclear drills by Russia, the balance of power in terms of successful invasion favors the bigger power. But in terms of balance of interests, the Ukrainians might have an edge, as for most of them, it is a threat to their freedom and independence. The balance of political will is not easy to judge though Russia under Vladimir Putin might have the advantage for the invasion phase. For the resistance phase that might follow, the Ukrainians may hold the advantage.
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China and Taiwan
In contrast to Russia in Ukraine, China’s threats of invasion are relatively more subtle and though they involve holding the gun to the head to coerce their adversaries, the military crises created are in the form of a stream of episodes that wax and wane in intensity and scale. But each threat carries a signal of establishing military strength and political will to use force to regain territory that, according to China, is rightfully theirs. The signals are crafted to maintain military pressures that lurks around as ghosts in the adversarial relationships.
In case of Taiwan, the costs to China of an invasion could be unacceptably high. Taiwan is densely populated with approximately 24 million people, which includes the main island and several smaller islands in its vicinity. Even a successful invasion will have to tackle the resistance that could follow. Taiwan is the global leader in chip manufacturing besides being a major IT industry player. An invasion could devastate those capacities and would have global repercussions, including for China.
Prolonged military pressure can even take the form of nibbling, with some small islands being the targets. The Pratas Island that is situated between Southern Taiwan and Hong Kong and that is 400km from the mainland of Taiwan has been cited as an easy pick for China. However, as China increases pressure, support for Taiwan from the West and its allies has also been gaining ground.
The prospect of uncertainty that surrounds the reaction of the US in response to any use of force against Taiwan and its global strategic repercussions could stay China’s hand unless Beijing considers that the time is ripe. Such a time can come about if the US and its allies are engaged elsewhere and their resources diverted. Ukraine may provide the diversion for China to nibble away at islands like Pratas and improve its geostrategic posture—all part of a process that eventually seeks to take control of Taiwan. What happens thereafter would depend on too many interconnected geopolitical variables, including the domestic political dynamics of the countries concerned.
China’s exertions in the maritime domain of the Indo-Pacific are interwoven with its attempts against Taiwan. China would therefore prefer to carry out salami slicing in order to reduce the reaction of the US. Having occupied several islands and archipelagos in the South China Sea, it would not like to raise tensions, if it can avoid it. Keeping matters on the slow boil could be their preference.
On the China-India border in eastern Ladakh, the PLA has shown no signs ofwithdrawal. Apart from keeping military pressure on India using the LAC, China may also indulge in periodic cyber-attacks. Pressure can be expected to continue as long as India is seen deepening its strategic partnership with the US and other powers, whose interests are aligned to confronting China’s aggressive moves and intentions.
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India’s options
The deepening of China-Russian ties, with both countries converging in supporting each other’s security concerns, is a strategic shift on the global geopolitical table and one that will continue to challenge India’s relations with all other parties. Major complications can arise in India-Russian relations that would call for political acumen backed by deft diplomacy.
India’s stand on Ukraine that followed the recent meeting of QUAD foreign ministers reflected the difference in its views with the other three partners. Even after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, India had taken a nuanced stand. Its continuation is a reflection that India’s foreign policy has maintained the pursuit of its own interests despite earlier misgivings of joining groupings like QUAD.
The global geopolitical situation could upend India’s growth and progress that is already under strain and worsened by the pandemic. Navigating the turbulence that looms ahead is going to challenge India’s reservoir of its internal capacity that must be supplemented by ingenuity in foreign policy moves. Successful tackling of the internal front is a precondition for success on the external front and therein lies the rub.
Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon (retd) is Director, Strategic Studies Programme, Takshashila Institution; former military adviser, National Security Council Secretariat. He tweets @prakashmenon51. Views are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)